Blazin' Saddles: 12 favourites for the World Championships men's road race

Next year there'll be Norwegian flags galore in Bergen; the year after, climbs à gogo in Innsbruck; and then, in 2019, Yorkshire is guaranteed to break all records when it comes to spectators lining the rolling roads of northern England.

But for now, we'll have to make do with the searing heat, building site surrounds and lowly fan levels of the Arabian Peninsula. Such was the ghost-town status of Doha during the men's U23 race many viewers wondered whether or not it was the first time in Worlds history that the riders outnumbered the spectators; others even mused that under-23 did not stand for the age of the riders but for – well, you guessed it.

The event itself went to script with the three favourites all taking medals as Norway's Kristoffer Halvorsen pipped Germany's Pascal Ackermann and Italy's Jakub Mareczko in a tight bunch sprint.

Sunday's 257.5km men's road race looks all but certain to produce the same outcome – especially with the potential crosswinds during the opening coastal out-and-back loop into the desert not expected to blow. After 150km the riders will race seven of the rather uninspiring 15.2km circuit on the Pearl before a finish which should pit the world's top sprinters against each other.

But the heat, the length of that opening loop, and the chaos that even a light breeze may cause – all this could ensure that a final sprint is contested by perhaps only 60-odd riders where experience, strength and stamina may prove as important as pure speed. Let's now run through the dozen stand-out contenders and access their chances with a star rating out of five...

Could this be Australia's best chance at having a first world champion since Cadel Evans in 2011? Since Mendrisio we've witnessed silver medals for Matt Goss, Simon Gerrans and Michael Matthews – but Ewan is perhaps the best equipped to go one better in Doha.

Just five wins this season – most recently on The Mall in the Tour of Britain – masks the fact that, on his day, Ewan can match the fastest men in the peloton. If age and staying power over 250+ kilometres act against the pocket-rocket from Sydney, then Matthews is an able deputy in a strong Australian team that also includes Adam Hansen, Heinrich Haussler, Mark Renshaw and Mathew Hayman.

No-one in history has more wins on Qatari soil (or should that be sand?) than the bald Belgian, who has struck gold on 22 occasions in the Tour of Qatar. History counts for nothing, mind, and Boonen is no longer the explosive sprinter he once was so he'll need to play his cards right. Victories have been few and far between this season – although recent scalps in RideLondon and Paris-Brussels bode well, and a full nine-man team will also be a boon for Boonen.

Of course, there's a big chance that Tommeke will simply be a foil for Belgian's wildcard in Debusschere, who had been consistent all season despite a solitary win in the Dwars door Vlaanderen back in March. Still, with a team that also boasts Jurgen Roelants, Jasper Stuyven and Olympic champion Greg van Avermaet, then fans – the ones watching on TV, that is – can certainly expect the Belgian team to be in the mix come the final lap.

Like Ewan, the Colombian is another youngster with a serious chance at making a splash in Doha. Unlike Ewan, Gaviria is showing form at the tail end of the season – most notably with victory in last week's Paris-Tours, where he caught his rivals napping with an early attack on the home straight. With Colombians more readily associated with scaling mountains than leading out on the flat, Gaviria won't benefit from strong team support so he'll have to do things his way. It's probably too big an ask at this stage in his career, but do keep an eye out for him in the finale.

The journalists' favourite. It's pretty clear Bouhanni has been given the nod in the French squad ahead of former U23 world champion Arnaud Demare – despite a rotten season that has seen him disqualified from races and miss all three Grand Tours (most notably the Tour de France following a much publicised spat with a drunken fan on the eve of the race).

But between the punches, crashes and stitches, 26-year-old Bouhanni has managed to notch 10 wins – and it would be typical of his bullish, brash and ballsy personality to end a troubled year with the rainbow stripes around his chest. To help him in this quest Bouhanni will have his formidable Cofidis lead-out train of Geoffrey Soupe, Adrien Petit and Christian Laporte. Should he wobble, Demare – the surprise Milan-Sanremo winner – lacks zip but could prove an able deputy.

Before the season started many people baulked at Cavendish's three-pronged assault on the Tour de France, Olympics and Worlds. Well, the 31-year-old Manxman has proved his doubters wrong so far, with four stage wins on the Tour – including that opening day maillot jaune – and a silver medal on the track in Rio. Can he complete the hat-trick?

For the romantics, Cavendish is the man to beat. While the flat course will suit him even more than Copenhagen did back in 2011, he's laboured on the road since the Olympics, with form both patchy and rattled by illness. A strong nine-man British team will also feature fastmen Ben Swift, Dan McLay and Adam Blythe, as well as Sky trio Geraint Thomas, Luke Rowe and Ian Stannard.

But it will count for nothing if Cavendish doesn't have the legs in the fierce Qatari heat. Write him off at your peril, mind. Cavendish revels in proving his doubters wrong and this could be the perfect stage for him to end what has been a stellar season.

The Rostock Gorilla (described as "a colossus" this week by Mario Cipollini) is the bookmakers' favourite – although his odds of 5-1 suggest that even they aren't sure who will take the crown come Sunday. The dependable 34-year-old capped an otherwise disappointing Tour with victory in the final stage on the Champs Elysees, although Greipel has won just the once since – in the opening stage of the Tour of Britain.

One of the fastest sprinters on paper, Greipel has more experience than many and isn't overly adverse to long races in the heat. But his German team has just six riders – putting them three down on their rivals before the race even rolls out of the Aspire quarter of Doha. If Greipel is to make good on his status as favourite he'll need team-mates Marcel Kittel and John Degenkolb to put aside their own personal ambitions and pull for him in what will no doubt be a hectic finale.

Should the race get shortened on the grounds of extreme heat then Kittel could well be elevated above Greipel in the German hierarchy. After his sabbatical in 2015, Kittel has experienced a stuttering season at Etixx. On the one hand, he's notched two wins on the Giro, one on the Tour and a cluster over the spring; but on the other hand, he's been sub-par in the big bunch affairs, and his staying power has looked like that of a rookie.

With Greipel in the hot seat, Kittel will enter the race very much the wildcard – but one who could still play a big role alongside trade team-mate Tony Martin, the recently crowned time trial world champion.

As usual it will be a lack of harmony within the Italian ranks that could prove their downfall, with Team Sky's Viviani one of a number of sprinters in the squad. But as Mario Cipollini said in such frank terms earlier in the week, Viviani, along with Giacomo Nizzolo and Sonny Colbrelli, are just "half sprinters – they're middleweights against heavyweights" who would be better off leading someone strong out, as opposed to being the main event themselves.

Viviani may have denied Cavendish a gold medal in the omnium in Rio but there's little to suggest from his form on the road this season that he'll come anywhere near those rainbow stripes.

The Dutch national champion has had a strong maiden season in the WorldTour with 11 wins for LottoNL-Jumbo consistently spread from spring through to autumn – most recently in the Tour de l'Eurometropole. While an outsider, Groenewegen will have a strong Dutch team behind him – with a lead-out train that includes old hands Niki Terpstra and Koen de Kort, as well as a potential plan B in Danny van Poppel.

Written off by Mario Cipollini this week as "just the cousin of the rider he once was," the self-styled Viking has failed to make an impression in any of the major races this season. Were it not for his usual show-stopping performances in his native Tour de Fjords and Arctic Race of Norway, Kristoff would only have a handful of wins to his name.

But the 29-year-old has staying power and a strong Norwegian team behind him bent on doubling up after Halvorsen's win in the U23s. Should he not show up then the doors could open for Edvald Boasson Hagen and Sondre Holst Enger.

The defending champion will have his work cut out to beat the pure sprinters in Doha but he's shown in the past that, on a good day, he can match many of the fast guys. Like Sam Bennett of Ireland, Ramunas Navardauskas of Lithuania and Maximiliano Richeze of Argentina, the Slovakian sensation will only have two team-mates, one being his brother and chief mascot Juraj. It could be worse: Luxembourg's Jean-Pierre Drucker has just the one in Bob Jungels.