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Why Jose Mourinho's Chelsea could struggle in Europe this season

Eurosport
ByEurosport

Updated 26/07/2015 at 14:15 GMT

With Jose Mourinho expected to make his strongest push for Champions League glory with Chelsea this season, Dan Levene says the Blues could find European waters anything but plain sailing thanks to new rules from UEFA.

Chelsea manager Jose Mourinho

Image credit: Reuters

Mourinho has made no secret of the fact that in this, his second spell at Stamford Bridge, the intention was to secure the Premier League title before turning to the one trophy he never won during his first stint in London.
Having managed the first part, and secured the contract extension that was surely always part of his plan, all eyes are turned towards his old stomping ground of the San Siro – which will host the Champions League final on 28 May 2016.
Chelsea remain favourites for the Premier League this season, and there seems to be an expectation within the club that securing back to back titles is now considered a minimum on Mourinho's list of objectives.
But UEFA's new qualification format for the Champions League will make The Special One's plan to deliver European success in years three or four of his project far from easy. And when the Champions League group stage draw is made on 27th August, Chelsea are likely to find themselves with continental footballing royalty in their group.
Whereas, in the past, the top group of seeds was a rarely changing old boys club – usually made up of the top couple of sides from each of the continent's three biggest leagues, plus Porto and someone else – that has now changed.
UEFA's new system gives top seeding, and therefore the benefit of separation, to only the champions of what it considers to be the eight strongest leagues within its jurisdiction.
That will this season include Chelsea, by virtue of their domestic domination last campaign. However, it is the knock-on effect on the second tier of seeds that may cause the Blues bother.
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2011-12 Champions League Chelsea celebrate with trophy

Image credit: PA Photos

The qualifying stages are yet to be completed, but if things go as expected this second draw pot will contain the other three English clubs in the mix – Arsenal, Manchester City and Manchester United.
That will have the effect of giving Chelsea only five possible opponents from this tier – including Real Madrid, who are presently the highest ranked club side in Europe (based on their UEFA coefficient).
The other options – Atletico Madrid, Porto, Valencia and Bayer Leverkeusen – are no slouches.
Arsenal, Manchester City and (should they qualify) Manchester United, meanwhile, will each have one of the following in their group; Barcelona, Bayern Munich, Juventus, Benfica, Paris Saint-Germain, Zenit St Petersburg or PSV Eindhoven.
Some formidable sides there, but the last of those seven would have been ranked below Olympiakos at the very bottom of pot 3 under the old system.
The net result is that, on UEFA ranking points alone, Chelsea's average potential opposition as things stand from Pot 2 has a higher coefficient (118 points on UEFA's index) than the average side any other English side might get from Pot 1 (111 points).
For the first time in the history of UEFA's showcase competition, it is actually a disadvantage to have won your domestic league.
Mourinho will surely know that if Chelsea are to do it this season, they will have little other option than to do it the hard way.
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