Real Madrid have no vision - but having Cristiano Ronaldo is enough

Zinedine Zidane might be three games away from enjoying the first back-to-back Champions League wins since the competition rebranded, but we are still to see any kind of real vision from him or Real Madrid. There is no grand plan or identity; their strength still lies in big players and big moments, and that could be enough again as they take on an under-strength Atletico Madrid, who are getting used to disappointment when facing their rivals in Europe.

When it comes to the Champions League, Real Madrid are completely dominant over Atleti. It’s not the same story in La Liga, but Atleti have been knocked out by their local rivals in the past three seasons: in the finals of 2014 and 2016 and the quarter-finals in between. Real Madrid have dug out crucial goals, often very late in the game, and even when Atleti have had an advantage, it’s never been big enough to keep Real at bay. Just think about that last-gasp equaliser from Sergio Ramos in Lisbon in 2014.

Atleti can go and win game after game 1-0, but they rarely win by two or three goals. When you play a team like Real, with all the attacking talent they possess, you need to have more of a cushion; you can’t just play the percentages.

We know from their domestic record in recent seasons that Atleti have the talent and the tactics to trouble their neighbours, so mental factors must also come into play in the biggest European games, where Real have the experience and charisma to cope better with the occasion.

Even so, I never see anything from them which particularly impresses me. They aren’t very exciting to watch: it’s all about getting it to the front three as quickly as possible and see what they can do. If you could watch Real Madrid or Barcelona, there would be no debate at all. They don’t have players with the imagination or improvisation that Barcelona do. They just have big players who are capable of stepping up when it matters, as we’ve seen in La Liga in recent weeks.

In this regard, no one is more important than Cristiano Ronaldo, who scored five goals across two legs in the quarter-final win over Bayern Munich. He doesn’t contribute to play much anymore; in fact he’s almost became an old-style English centre-forward, sniffing out chances in the penalty area. His game was always about power, pace and strength and now he has evolved a bit to find a new dimension to his game, becoming a pure goalscorer.

He knew elements of his game were fading away and he has reinvented himself. By contrast, Real Madrid are rather more unsure of themselves and what they are – not that it has stopped them excelling in Europe.

Atleti's identity is very clear for anyone to see, that's what comes from having a manager like Diego Simeone. But what is usually their strength could be their weakness against Real.

The crucial factor tonight is likely to be Atleti’s injuries in defence. That is usually their strongest area of the pitch and they have lost the dependable Juanfran to injury at right-back, for the first leg at least. Jose Gimenez was filling in but he suffered a thigh strain at the weekend and is likely to miss both matches of the semi-final. It’s a big problem, imagine if Real Madrid were without Gareth Bale and Karim Benzema. Atleti are in a bit of disarray.

It means Stefan Savic will presumably have to move across to full-back, breaking up his impressive partnership with Diego Godin. He is also going to have to cope with Ronaldo, who starts out on the left usually, even if he ends up in the penalty box. Savic has proved himself since his time at Manchester City, when he didn’t convince, but when you are having to rebuild half your backline, it’s not easy.

In the second leg of the quarter-final against Leicester, Atleti had both their full-backs come off and it gave them a big problem. It got very edgy after Filipe Luis and Juanfran went off and the complexion of the tie changed. The problem is even more pronounced against Real Madrid. Ronaldo could well add to his 100+ European goals and that might be enough to decide the game.

Prediction: Real Madrid to go through