Euro 2016: Who'll make the quarter-finals? Odds, stats, analysis and predictions for last-16 draw

ByToby Keel

Updated 24/06/2016 at 13:26 GMT

With the draw finalised for the last 16, we look at the matches, who the bookies think will win... and where we reckon the surprises wil be sprung.

A replica of the European Championship trophy ahead of the Euro 2016 qualifiers.

Image credit: Eurosport

England v Iceland - Monday June 27th, 8pm, Nice (Stade de Nice)

Bookies' odds

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England 4/7, Iceland 8/1, Draw 11/4

To qualify: England 1/5, Iceland 7/2

Shock potential

Massive. England have shone on the ball, but consistently failed to break down plucky, determined, well-drilled opponents in the final third. And there has been nobody pluckier, more determined or better drilled than Iceland.

England's Wayne Rooney: Can't believe he's playing a supermarket in the last 16

Image credit: Reuters

Key match facts

Last time England played Iceland was June 2004 – England won 6-1 with Wayne Rooney scoring

England haven't lost a match at the Euros since their opening group match in 2004 (their defeats since then have all been in penalty shootouts)

Iceland have lost only one of their last nine competitive matches (won four, lost four)

Our verdict

England to win, but only in extra time.

- - -

Italy v Spain - Monday June 27th, 5pm, Paris (Stade de France)

Bookies' odds

Spain 6/5, Italy 10/3, Draw 2/1

To qualify: Spain 1/2, Italy 6/4

Shock potential

None, really, since it wouldn't be a shock to see either side win. Both teams lost their final group stage matches in surprising circumstances – though Spain's the more so, since they started with the same first XI they'd fielded in the opening two matches (Italy put out a second XI, but were already assured of topping the group).

Antonio Conte, Italy manager, reacts to the late Croatian goal which put Spain in his team's path for the last 16

Image credit: AFP

Key match facts

This will be the 35th encounter between Italy and Spain. The record is perfectly balanced so far with 10 wins each and 14 draws.

Spain beat Italy both at Euro 2008 an Euro 2012. The first time was on penalties (at the quarter-final stage) while the second time saw Spain crush Italy 4-0.

Italy have used 22 players in the tournament so far – more than any other team. Spain are one of only two sides who fielded the same starting XI in every match so far (the other is Iceland).

Our verdict

Bookies are no doubt reasoning that Spain are favourites since any complacency will have been knocked out of them by Croatia; but when Italy bring all their top names back in, they will be just as formidable as they were against Belgium and Sweden. This one is too close to call.

- - -

Wales v Northern Ireland – Saturday June 25th, 5pm, Paris (Parc des Princes)

Bookies' odds

Wales 21/20, Northern Ireland 4/1, Draw 2/1

To qualify: Wales 4/9, Northern Ireland 7/4

Shock potential

Gareth Bale's goalscoring form has been the best in the tournament, while the rest of Chris Coleman's squad played superbly to top Group B. Michael O'Neill's Northern Ireland outfit have already outdone themselves to make the last-16, and it's extremely hard to see them going any further.

Gareth Bale really does believe he can fly. And the way things are going for Wales, who's to say he's wrong?

Image credit: PA Sport

Key match facts

This is the first ever encounter between two British teams in the knockout stages of a major tournament.

Northern Ireland have won none of their last eight matches against Wales (D4 L4). Their last victory dates back to May 1980 (1-0 in Cardiff, goal by Noel Brotherston).

Wales were the joint-top scorers in the EURO 2016 group stages along with Hungary (6 goals). Four of their goals came in the first-half.

Northern Ireland recorded the lowest possession average so far at EURO 2016 (28.5%); and they also had the fewest shots (17 in three games, 13 of which were against Ukraine).

Our verdict

Wales should win this at a canter.

- - -

France v Ireland – Sunday 26th June, 2pm, Lyon (Stade de Lyon)

Bookies' odds

France 4/9, Ireland 9/1, Draw 3/1

To qualify: France 1/7, Ireland 4/1

Shock potential

Huge. Enormous. Massive. It's hard to overstate just how angry Ireland was after Thierry Henry's handball to score the critical goal in extra time of the World Cup qualifying play-off back in November 2009. Ireland had lost 1-0 in Dublin but beat France 1-0 over 90 minutes in Paris before a 103rd minute goal assisted by Henry's hand. The fact that the Irish FA seriously asked FIFA to expand the subsequent World Cup to 33 teams gives you some idea of how much it meant.

To turn the French over in revenge, and on their home turf, would mean everything. Nobody gave the side a snowball's chance in hell of getting a result in that second leg in Paris, but they did. And they have a chance of doing it again - especially with the best fans at Euro 2016 behind them.

Republic of Ireland fans have already 'won' Euro 2016. Can their team follow suit?

Image credit: Reuters

Key match facts

France are unbeaten in their last 15 major tournament games played on home soil, winning 13 and drawing two.

Last time France topped their group at a European Championships, they went on to meet Greece in the first knockout round. That was 2004, the year that Greece went on to win the tournament.

France haven't conceded a shot on target at Euro 2016 since giving away a penalty to Romania in the opening game.

Our verdict

Our gut instinct is that France will come through – they rode their luck in the group stage and will again, with a partisan home crowd likely able to out-cheer even the Irish fans. Ireland will fight hard but end up as hard-done-by losers once again.

- - -

Croatia v Portugal, Saturday 25th June, 8pm, Lens (Stade Bollaert-Delelis)

Bookies' odds

Croatia 7/4, Portugal 11/5, Draw 2/1

To qualify: Croatia 4/5, Portugal evens

Shock potential

Before the tournament you'd have arguably made Portugal favourites; now, Croatia are arguably the most impressive team at Euro 2016 so far. On that basis it's not hard to see why bookies reckon the Croatians will win this one – but with Cristiano Ronaldo finding his touch in the final group match, the form book just went out of the window.

Portugal's forward Cristiano Ronaldo celebrates after finally proving he can score. Albeit not from free kicks.

Image credit: AFP

Key match facts

Portugal have won all three of their encounters with Croatia, scoring six goals and conceding none.

Croatia have lost only one of their last 10 games at the Euros (0-1 v Spain in June 2012), winning six and drawing three. But they've not won a tournament knock-out match since the France '98 World Cup.

Portugal have played the most games in the history of the European Championships without ever winning the tournament: 31 games, 0 trophy.

Our verdict

Ronaldo already proved that he can lift himself when he has to, and he will again – while Croatia's 18-year blank in knockout matches will continue for at least another two years.

- - -

Poland v Switzerland, Saturday 25th June, 2pm, St Etienne (Stade Geoffroy Guichard)

Bookies' odds

Poland 6/4, Switzerland 11/5, Draw 2/1

To qualify: Poland 4/5, Switzerland 6/5

Shock potential

Minimal. Neither side has looked muck like scoring (both managed just two goals in three group stage matches), and while Poland are favourites their key man Robert Lewandowski is on an epic international goal drought.

Poland coach Adam Nawalka believes star striker Robert Lewandowski will soon break his Euro 2016 duck. Nobody else is quite so confident.

Image credit: PA Sport

Key match facts

Switzerland have won only one of their 10 games against Poland, it was in a friendly 40 years ago (2-1 in May 1976). The Poles have won four and drawn five.

Both Switzerland and Poland have made it to the knockout stages of the Euros for the first time in their history.

Switzerland are the only side left in the tournament who have failed to score from open play – both their goals came from corners.

Poland are one of only two sides to get through the group stage without conceding a goal (the other was Germany)

Our verdict

This has 0-0 and a penalty shootout written all over it. By the end of a dire affair, nobody will care who wins apart from the fans of the two sides – and the winner of the Croatia v Portugal match which awaits..

- - -

Hungary v Belgium, Sunday 26th June, 8pm, Toulouse (Stade de Toulouse)

Bookies' odds

Hungary 6/1, Belgium 4/6, Draw 5/2

To qualify: Hungary 11/4, Belgium 1/4

Shock potential

Colossal. We're not quite sure what the bookies were smoking when they cooked up those odds, but Hungary have been one of the most exciting attacking units at this tournament – even if, as both Iceland and Portugal showed, they have gaps at the back. Belgium looked poor against Italy and unconvincing against Sweden; if it's that team which shows up instead of the XI that thrashed Ireland, then this game is up for grabs.

Belgium's midfielder Radja Nainggolan gestures to his hairdresser after the aerodynamic cut which helped him score against Sweden

Image credit: AFP

Key match facts

Belgium have just won back-to-back games for the first time ever at the European Championships.

Hungary have made it out of the group stages at a major tournament for the first time since the 1966 World Cup – they were eventually knocked out in the quarter-finals by the USSR.

Expect goals: none of the 12 encounters between Hungary and Belgium has ended 0-0, and Belgium's last goalless European Championship game was the 0-0 draw against Italy in 1980.

Our verdict

Hungary are in their first tournament for a decades, and they don't look like going home yet. As for Belgium? Their golden generation is unconvincing

- - -

Germany v Slovakia, Sunday 26th June, 5pm, Lille (Stade Pierre Mauroy)

Bookies' odds

Germany 2/5, Slovakia 10/1, Draw 3/1

To qualify: Germany 1/8, Slovakia 5/1

Shock potential

Pretty decent. Germany, as world champions, come into the match having not conceded a goal in the group stage, while Slovakia have looked eminently beatable. Yet the Germans haven't had it all their own way: they toiled against Northern Ireland, drew a blank against Poland and never got out of second gear in the match against Ukraine – during which a late goal flattered them. Having shut out England, Slovakia will fancy their chances of doing the same again and nicking a goal on the break.

Germany's players react with appropriate understatement after almost accidentally putting Northern Ireland - and Will Griggs - out of the tournament.

Image credit: Imago

Key match facts

Germany have won seven but lost three of their 10 encounters with Slovakia – but last time they met – in a tournament warm-up match - the fixture ended in a 3-1 victory for Slovakia. Slovakia scored with three of their four shots on target in that game.

Since their group stage exit at Euro 2004, Germany have made the semi-finals of every tournament they've played.

Only one of Germany’s 44 shots in their last two games has found the back of the net.

Marek Hamsik has been directly involved in four goals in his last four competitive games with Slovakia (3 goals, 1 assist).

Our verdict

Germany will come through this one, but it'll be nothing like as easy as those odds suggest. We'd foresee a 2-1 victory, quite probably in extra time.

- - -

Stats via Opta

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