Why Wales will win Euro 2016… and scoop me over £3,000

It was October 2013.

Gabby Agbonlahor was in hiding after clattering One Direction’s Louis Tomlinson in a charity match, Miley Cyrus’ dubious anthem ‘Wrecking Ball’ was bobbing along at No.1 and the United Kingdom was a relatively contented member of the European Union.

Oh, and I had just stumbled upon a discovery that would potentially make me a millionaire… though, due to financial restraints, a thousand-aire would have to do.

Wales were 1000-1 to win Euro 2016 – and, what’s more, I had reason to believe they could actually pull it off.

On the surface, those inflated odds seemed fully justified. The Welsh had failed to qualify for a major tournament since the 1958 World Cup in Sweden and had contrived to finish below Scotland for the 2014 edition in Brazil. In short: they were hopeless. How could a side that had recently lost to Macedonia (more famous for Mother Teresa than any sporting prowess) possibly reach the tournament in France, let alone win the whole thing?!

And yet there were also signs of hope. Gareth Bale was suddenly the world’s most expensive player; Aaron Ramsey was in the midst of his finest club season at Arsenal; even Hal Robson-Kanu – superb on Football Manager for me, admittedly for Havant & Waterlooville in the Conference South – was banging home the occasional goal for Reading. Gary Speed had started the rebuilding process, one that Chris Coleman (after an early stutter) looked set to continue.

If only they had a reliable striker…

Consulting Wikipedia, it became apparent one existed. Some chap called Tom Lawrence was destined to become the next goal-scoring sensation. After all, he played for Manchester United and had in excess of two articles hyping up his potential. Chuck in the Welsh Xavi (sorry, not sorry) Joe Allen and reassuringly competent Swansea trio Ashley Williams, Ben Davies and Neil Taylor and it was abundantly clear: Wales would lift the trophy on July 10, 2016.

Consulting my finances, I quickly realised that my disposable income (overdraft remnants) totalled £5 and hastily slapped on £2.50 each way. Potential earnings: £3,755. Even a final defeat would land me £1,252,50.

Then qualification started. Wales, long-time omni-failures, roared back to beat European giants Andorra as I started contemplating early retirement. Four more wins followed, including a toppling of Belgium’s ‘Golden Generation’, as they booked their spot in France at a canter. The odds plummeted to 80-1. Then they topped Group B containing England, Russia and Slovakia, landing themselves a sort-of-trouble-free path to the final.

My only regret: why didn’t I load on more cash?

‘Come on, mate. It’s not going to happen.’

With my new-found conversation point, I inevitably encountered some detractors. They had a point, too. That Lawrence fella never did evolve into a Ballon d’Or winner, visions of which encouraged the initial outlay. He’s played for Cardiff City in the Championship since February, boasting an impressive return of zero goals in 14 appearances.

But in Robson-Kanu, Wales have a willing replacement. The winger-turned-non-scoring-striker (awkwardly without a club aged 27) is the nation’s unsung hero, creating space for superior players with his errant runs away from goal. And that’s all he needs to do.

For Wales actually possess two of the tournament’s best players. Bale is the talisman figure, an example to Cristiano Ronaldo on how to thrive amongst mediocrity, while Ramsey creates havoc in the centre. Behind the Arsenal man, two lesser stars glue it all together: Joe Allen and Ashley Williams. Neither is world-class; both perform their duty – i.e. keeping it tight – with aplomb.

So dismiss Wales at your peril. This is your last chance to jump on the bandwagon while it’s still niche. You can still fetch 25-1 on them to win the tournament – and they’re in a half of the draw containing no previous European or world champions. Simply put: it’s free money.