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Is Theo Walcott ready to lead the line for England?

Eurosport
ByEurosport

Published 09/10/2015 at 12:22 GMT

Martin Laurence of WhoScored assesses the striking credentials of Theo Walcott ahead of England's game against Estonia.

England's Theo Walcott during the press conference

Image credit: Reuters

When asked whether he felt Theo Walcott's performance against United was his best up front for Arsenal, Arsene Wenger stated, "In this position, certainly." Whether the England man is best suited to a centre-forward role is a debate which has dragged on, and its longevity highlights the fact that - despite his own protestations - it's something Walcott has failed to convince of.
It's now been years since the former Southampton flyer made the bold claim that his best position is that of a striker. At the time the suggestion was largely scoffed at, with Walcott's pace on the flanks singled out as his greatest strength despite a lack of end product from wide areas. This season, however, there is a growing sense that Walcott is winning over his doubters, including the most important of them all in the form of his manager.
WhoScored.com assess the Arsenal forward's limited playing time up front to suggest whether Walcott is finally proving his point.
Having recently stated that Wenger had tasked him with being more aggressive on the pitch, the Gunners boss was clearly content that Walcott had taken his advice on board last weekend. "He did really fight today and showed he can fight, commit and protect the ball as well," Wenger claimed, and it is his ability to lead the line and compete physically that has been questioned most since a move into a central position.
Walcott's start against United on Sunday was only his 11th in the Premier League as a centre-forward since 2009/10. It was also arguably the first time the 26-year old had really looked capable of holding his own and bringing others into play. Indeed, the England international picked up a rating of 7.39 from WhoScored.com, which - having registered two assists - was his best in a game in which he had not netted when starting up front.
Wenger's praise proved that he isn't too concerned about his striker carrying any great goal threat as long as he enables others around him to do so, and Walcott did that at the Emirates. He had just one shot at goal on Sunday, his lowest ever when starting up front in the league for Arsenal, failing to hit the target for the first time from that position.
The concern, however, is that he is not consistent enough both in front of goal and in building up play to tie down a regular starting berth as a lone striker. In 11 league starts up front Walcott has scored nine goals but, with two hat-tricks included in that tally (against Newcastle and West Brom), context is required. A strike rate of just under one in two is not poor by any means but he has failed to score in six of said outings, despite what the figures may immediately have you believe.
It's also important to add that 11 matches is a very low sample size and unless Walcott continues to be given a run in the side we won't truly know his credentials as a striker. Nevertheless, the signs are pretty encouraging as far as Arsenal and perhaps even England are concerned at this moment in time, despite evident flaws in his game.
It's true that Walcott doesn't do enough off the ball to ensure defenders don't have an easy ride in possession, or at least it has been. Deemed very weak when it comes to his ‘defensive contribution’ according to WhoScored's statistically calculated player characteristics, Walcott has won possession in the final third just three times in his 11 league appearances as a striker. Having also won just three of 13 aerial duels from that position, he still has a way to go to trouble the best defences on a regular basis.
Theo Walcott
That said, Walcott's work off the ball when Arsenal do have possession is improving all the time. He is using his pace more intelligently than he once was, peeling off of defenders and finding space in the box on a consistent basis. It may seem like a negative stat but the fact that no player has missed more clear-cut chances in the Premier League this season (six) highlights the fact that Walcott's movement allows him to be presented with big opportunities.
Only four players to have played at least five times this season have had a shot at goal more often (every 17.6 minutes), so it's fair to say Walcott would have hoped for more than his two-goal tally thus far. He needs to be more clinical in front of goal, that's for sure, and Walcott is certainly one to play the percentages in the box.
His philosophy tends to be that if you don't hit the target, you won't score, which is borne out in the stats. Indeed, since the start of last season none of the 62 players to average at least two shots per game have a better shot accuracy than Walcott (54.2%), who opts for placement over power in the box. To put that into context, Diego Costa has hit the target with 47.1% of his efforts in that time, Sergio Aguero with 42% and Harry Kane with 40%. All three, however, are more decisive in front of goal. More instinctive.
With Walcott the sense remains that he over thinks things in scoring positions, perhaps because his pace and movement is such that he generally has more time to do so. That said, Walcott's ability to find goalscoring positions is certainly that of an out-and-out striker. He has proven that he does deserve a chance to be Arsenal's main man up front, though with Kane and Rooney - unlikely to be dropped given his duties as captain - ahead of him in the England set-up, it's likely he'll have to make do with being first-choice striker at club level. That is likely to suit Walcott just fine for now.
Download the free WhoScored.com round-up magazine for September for all the need-to-know stats from last month's action across Europe
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