Atletico Madrid on brink of glory... and also of another historic disaster

There are two historical precedents for next week’s Champions League second leg between Atletico Madrid and Bayern Munich.

One is that just as in 1974 the Germans snatch victory from the jaws of defeat; the other is that Pep Guardiola’s team go chasing the game as they did against Real Madrid two years ago and are marmalised on the counter attack in the process.

Scenario number one – the doomsday scenario – is rooted in the distant past. That’s why supporters held up that huge ‘Do it four our fathers’, before the game.

Only the fathers, and more likely the father’s fathers remember, the late Spain boss Luis Aragones scoring the opening goal in the 1974 European Cup final putting Atletico 1-0 up in extra time. They then remember Hans Georg Schwarzenbeck scoring a late, late equalizer sending the game to a replay. And they remember a fresh Bayern winning the trophy two days later 4-0 back in the Heysel Stadium. Atletico, still broken from throwing it away so late in the first 90 minutes, were there for the taking.

"There is no revenge in life," said Diego Simeone this week, "just new opportunities." This is an opportunity. An opportunity for sporting revenge, but the job is still not done there is still plenty of time for a latter day Schwarzenbeck to pop-up and ruin the Rojiblancos season.

Scenario number two – the scenario Spanish journalists were keen to remind Guardiola about on Wednesday night – is altogether more palatable for Atletico Madrid supporters.

Two years ago Real Madrid won the first leg against Bayern at the Santiago Bernabeu, but the game seemed far from over because with home advantage Bayern would surely score in Germany.

They didn’t. And Real scored four goals on the break to win the semi-final 5-0 on aggregate.

"We will have to deal with counter-attacks better this time," said Guardiola on Wednesday. It is true that this Atletico Madrid side do not possess the same forward firepower as Real who in 2014 boasted Cristiano Ronaldo, Gareth Bale and Karim Benzema all fully fit and in form. They were torn apart by a front three that went on to lead Carlo Ancelotti’s side to victory in the final.

But Atletico do have Antoine Griezmann, Fernando Torres and Yannick Carrasco and that might be enough against the high line, gung-ho, "to hell with it this is my last game here anyway" plan of attack that Guardiola is scheming.

They created chances in the second half in the first leg. Torres hit the post after Griezmann raced away having dispossessed Franck Ribery, and it will only take one such strike to leave Bayern needing to score three against Europe’s meanest and best organised defence.

Carrasco’s role could be crucial coming off the bench to replace Torres. Simeone might even be tempted to pick him from the start because of his pace, although Fernando is in full Benjamin Button mode in the last six weeks and look like the streak of blond lightning that raced away from Philipp Lahm in 2008 to make Spain European champions. Lahm will be there on Tuesday; Torres too.

Atletico Madrid – with their 1974 baggage – and Guardiola – with his 2014 baggage – are both 90 minutes from a Champions League final. History is there to be made, most likely by whoever conquers his past.