Manchester derby drama: United and City divided by European fear

Given the current state of the Premier League table, it seems safe to presume that the loser of Sunday’s Manchester derby will not be playing in the Champions League next season. The respective managers might continue to insist otherwise – what else are they going to do, throw in the towel?! – but the reality is at this stage of the season defeat to a rival would be disastrous.

For Manchester United, four points behind Manchester City, the pressure is even more intense – although it is probably not a good sign when even your old manager doesn’t fancy your chances.

Sir Alex Ferguson reportedly told punters ahead of this week’s Cheltenham Festival that he thinks West Ham will pip both Manchester clubs to fourth, with Leicester winning the league “with three games to spare”.

Since those stories emerged the Hammers have indeed moved above United so, with nine games remaining, things are already looking ominous.

Not that United are giving up just yet.

“It’s not a big gap,” United assistant boss Ryan Giggs told The Times. “Especially when you look at the league this season, teams are going to drop points.

“We have a lot of players back so if you win games the momentum starts and the confidence builds. That is our objective over the next few games.”

That starts against City, with United needing to win to avoid dropping seven points off the pace. It is surely impossible for both teams to finish in the top four - and United will presumably not overhaul their rivals if they fall that far behind with so far games left.

With the stakes so high and so much upheaval still to come, which team, and manager, needs Champions League qualification most?

While City boss Manuel Pellegrini knows he will not be at the club next season, with Pep Guardiola riding in on his white horse to guide the side to new heights, United’s polarising manager Louis van Gaal is still fighting for his future at Old Trafford.

Having ridden out the heady storms of January and February that saw Jose Mourinho strongly linked with his job and the club, Van Gaal appears to have bought himself until at least the end of the season to lay out his case for retention.

With Europa League success now out of the question and an FA Cup victory (however welcome) unlikely to greatly sway United’s decision makers, it is in the league that Van Gaal will have to show he deserves to see out the final year of his United contract.

Who knows, the stultifying, unimaginative manner of United’s performances for much of this season might have already persuaded United to cut ties with the Dutchman regardless of the final league position but, if that is not the case, then finishing in the top four is surely the best case Van Gaal can make.

Having steered United back into the competition last season after a year in the wilderness (only to be dumped out in the group stage), the last thing United will want is to miss out again. Once may be considered careless, but twice is indicative of something far more fundamental.

“It hurts that we are not in it, of course,” as Giggs said. “We had a year out of the Champions League and we missed it. We do miss it [now]. You watch it on TV and you wish you were involved.

“It’s the elite competition. As a footballer you want challenges and as coaching staff you want to be challenging the best coaches in the world.”

Given that sentiment, United might feel that if they are not in the Champions League next term it will be partly because they do not have one of the best coaches. And, if that is the case, they will surely go out to try and get one.

Van Gaal might be singing for his supper, as it were, but at least he still has a job. His opposite number on Sunday is already a dead man walking and, while Manuel Pellegrini is not going to be in any financial trouble any time soon, he will surely be looking to get back into management as soon as possible. While he will want to leave City in a healthy place, then, he will also want to show off his own qualities.

When Guardiola’s arrival was first announced it looked like the job market was promising for Pellegrini, with Chelsea heavily linked with the Chilean. But with the Blues now set to appoint Antonio Conte and pretty much all other "big" European clubs sorted from a managerial standpoint (Real Madrid, who might change coaches again, are not going to reappoint him), Pellegrini might have to set his sights lower if he wants to be in a dugout at the start of next season.

Valencia could be an option, if Gary Neville leaves, but that would feel like a step back for man who has already led Villarreal and Malaga before in his career. Italy might be a more attractive landscape, with both Milan clubs perhaps considering switches, but there is no guarantee they will be seriously considering a man who has no experience in Serie A.

What is certain, of course, is that Pellegrini’s stock will be far higher if he leaves City having reached the final four of the Champions League and qualified again for the competition next term, rather than if he oversees an embarrassing slip to a fifth-placed finish.

The summer management market is often about hype and reputation and bluster, and Pellegrini’s agents will struggle to drum up excitement if their client has just helped the most expensive side in Europe finish fifth in the Premier League. City can cope without the Champions League for one season – as embarrassing as it would be – but their manager arguably cannot afford to miss out on qualification.

Having just said that City can cope without Champions League football for a season, it is probably best to clarify that there is a difference between “coping” and “thriving”. Financially City can probably cover the shortfall – although it will have an impact on their ability to meet UEFA financial fair play regulations if and when they get back in – but it will undoubtedly have a knock-on effect on things like recruitment, sponsorship and player development.

While the arrival of Pep Guardiola will surely help the club in attracting whichever targets he and they desire, not being able to offer Champions League football will hurt in their pursuit of any veteran players with a few years left (Zlatan Ibrahimovic?) and may force them to pay more in wages to younger players who can use that lack of participation as a bargaining chip.

But even if that is the case City can answer by writing a bigger cheque – something they are very well equipped to do. Other than in minor terms, it should not affect City's ability to put out a stronger team next season, or the season after.

For United, the answer is perhaps more complicated. The club have been through the process once before so know what protocols need to be put in place, and will know how it affects recruitment and contract negotiations and will be able to react accordingly. In that regard they will be better prepared to cope than Coty.

United missed out on Europe in the 2014/15 season and ended up posting record financial results for that campaign – so it is not even as if their economic picture is tied to which European competition they are participating in.

Having said that, persistent Champions League absences will hurt the club’s visibility and marketability – while it appears likely that the mountain of partnership deals the club have signed in recent seasons (adding one this week with Gulf) all contain clauses that see the sums paid drop significantly if United continue to miss out on the top four.

“Failure to qualify for any European competition, particularly for consecutive seasons, would negatively affect our ability to attract and retain talented players and coaching staff, as well as supporters, sponsors and other commercial partners,” a United prospectus warned in 2014.

“Failure to participate in the Champions League for two or more consecutive seasons would also reduce annual payments under the agreement with Adidas by 30 per cent.”

United, who are on course to become the first British club to earn more than £500m in a year despite their lukewarm form, remain the most powerful force in the Premier League – but that will quickly slip if their league position does.

If that happens then their owners, with little romantic attachment, will likely look to sell quickly and decisively to make a final profit on their investment. City, with far greater resources behind them, are not in any such immediate danger.

That will probably be an especially galling realisation for United fans, considering the equation everything outlined above leads to: United seem to be, in every important way, far less equipped and prepared for another season (or more) without Champions League action ... yet they are much more likely to have to deal with that issue.

Unless they win the derby. Sunday's game remains perhaps their final serious chance to turn things and salvage the campaign.

That puts a huge amount of pressure on the game at the Etihad Stadium, and will demand a far more engaging and active performance than either side delivered in the drab 0-0 draw that "graced" Old Trafford earlier in the season.

The advantages keep coming for City – beyond being at home, they also have two extra days of rest after dealing with Dynamo Kiev comfortably on Tuesday night. However, they did see Vincent Kompany limp off again in that match and, if that means the captain misses the derby, that gives United some hope.

The odds would appear to be stacked against United, though that is not to say they cannot get a result. With Louis van Gaal’s job, directly or indirectly, perhaps riding on the game – this is his chance to make his case to continue and, given the odds stacked against him, it would be a pretty compelling one.