On Reflection: Why it’s a gamble for clubs to sign players on deadline day

It was Albert Einstein who was credited with defining insanity as doing the same thing over and over again while expecting a different result. Perhaps that's worth bearing in mind as Manchester United chief executive Ed Woodward calls AS Monaco on his speed-dial to discuss signing a striker on transfer deadline-day.

Okay, so Anthony Martial, 19, does not quite represent the risk of a half-crocked, albeit on loan, Radamel Falcao on this day 12 months ago. But considering that Spurs baulked at a £12m price-tag set on Martial, scorer of 11 goals in 42 Ligue 1 games, earlier in the summer, it’s surprising (or not) to see his value nearly treble to £36m, after seven appearances this season, and one goal in Champions League qualifier against Young Boys.

Monaco are smart negotiators (they made over £90m on the sales of Geoffrey Kondogbia, Yannick Carrasco-Ferreira, Layvin Kurzawa and Aymen Abdennour this summer) and not only recognise that Martial has pace, youth and potential – but also that United are desperate. And that can affect a player’s value more than anything.

Swansea’s weekend win over United, as well as Crystal Palace beating Chelsea, was evidence, if any were needed, that getting transfer business done early is worth it. Swansea’s star man was Andre Ayew, with a goal and sumptuous assist, who was signed on a free transfer as soon as last season ended. Palace’s hero was also a free transfer, Bakary Sako, proving not only that there is talent in the Championship (which seems woefully under-estimated, given the volume of players coming from abroad) but that there is also value there too. Yannick Bolasie (signed from Bristol City), Ashley Westwood (Crewe), Gareth McAuley and Aaron Creswell (both Ipswich) are among a handful of Premier League regulars signed from lower leagues.

The timing of a transfer, then, certainly affects the value. Prices tend to go up as the deadline closes in. But in terms of player success, you are just as likely to have a success on your hands in a last-minute deal as you are a flop. The value increases but the guarantees do not.

Here are 10 deals that were completed on deadline day in 2014:

Most of the loan deals had an option to buy included in them; in Negredo’s case, it was a non-negotiable option and so Valencia paid for the striker this summer. Southampton showed last year that you can get talent on the final day, although it’s ironic that today could be a day spent trying to keep Mane out of the hands of United, and Victor Wanyama away from Spurs.

Transfer deadline day has become more and more like ‘Draft Day’ in the NFL. It’s a day that's built up by the media (yes, this column included) but also taps into the hopes and dreams of all fans. Here’s how one signing last year was reported: “Sunderland made up for the disappointment of missing out on long-term transfer target Fabio Borini with the signing of Argentina international Ricky Alvarez from Inter Milan.”

That must have excited Sunderland fans, who knew nothing of the slight and injury-prone playmaker that ended up making eight appearances for Sunderland and is now subject to a FIFA arbitration case as neither Inter or Sunderland want him this season.

Don't forget that as United scour Europe for a centre-forward in the next two days, they sold Danny Welbeck to Arsenal last summer. Maybe jettisoning the England striker made sense at the time – with Van Persie and Falcao ahead of him in the pecking-order – but United could do with him now.

It’s a shame for the likes of Sandro (at QPR) and Niko Kranjcar (Dynamo Kiev) that Harry Redknapp is out of work at the moment. The former Spurs and QPR boss wrote in the Daily Telegraph that he never liked deadline day. His excuse? “You always want to be in a situation where you do not need to do anything but, most of the time, I had come into a club that was struggling around at the bottom of the league so obviously we were trying to change it.”

Here are some transfers made on deadline day in 2013:

This deadline day belonged to Everton, who pushed United to the brink on the Fellaini deal, after turning down £20m earlier in the window, and clinched Barry and Lukaku on loan on the final day. Coach Roberto Martinez was rewarded as Everton finished fifth that season. They also sold Anichebe for £6m to WBA, which works out at £1m for every goal he has scored in the last two years for the Baggies.

Demichelis proved a handy signing at City while Ozil, for all his detractors, continues to be one of the first names on Arsene Wenger’s team-sheet. Sakho has found it tougher to become a regular at Liverpool and if he spends much more time on the bench this winter, he may look to leave in January to get some playing-time ahead of Euro 2016.

Deadline day transfers in 2012:

There are no marquee signings on deadline day in 2012, and that is another big change in recent years. United under Woodward want the big-name signing while it can help get over a poor start to the season, as Arsenal found in 2013 with Ozil. Back in 2012, Spurs took their late deals to the brink, pipping Liverpool to Clint Dempsey and finding a good deal with Lloris, who has doubled in value (at least) in the last three years.

On this deadline day, we might see more money spent, more big deals done, and more players on the move. Where will David de Gea end up? What about John Stones, Saido Berahino and Victor Wanyama? Will there be a huge late bid for Paul Pogba, Antoine Griezmann or Marco Reus? Where’s Robinho (signed by Man City on deadline day 2008) when you need him? That's the thing about transfer deadline day – you never know what’s going to happen. Especially, it seems, if you are Ed Woodward.