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Can Tiger Woods really win The Masters at Augusta?

Toby Keel

Published 09/04/2015 at 08:02 GMT

When Tiger Woods walked off the course in agony two months ago, many feared his career was over. Now, he's being talked about as a possible Masters winner once more. Can he really turn it round? Toby Keel takes a look.

Tiger Woods in action at Augusta

Image credit: Reuters

Ever since he walked off the course in agony at Torrey Pines in early February, the world of golf has been obsessed by one question: is Tiger Woods finished?
Yes, he's still just 39, far from old in golf terms where Major winners in their 40s are common; but Woods has already had far longer at the very top of the tree than any genuine superstar of the game apart from Jack Nicklaus.
Throw in the string of injuries and surgeries he has undergone in the last decade, and the fact that he has not won a Major since the 2008 US Open - despite having a number of good chances - and it's not hard to see why the doubts have been so strong.
And that's before you even mention the fact that he has now dropped out of the world's top 100 players.
Yet with Woods turning up at Augusta, all that doom and gloom seems to have gone out of the window - judging by the reverent, breathless media coverage the legend is receiving at least. Instead, he's being treated as a genuine contender.
With 14 Majors - four of them at the Masters - to his name, it'd be crazy to write off Woods entirely, particularly on a course where he has finished in the top-10 an amazing 13 times in 17 appearances as a pro.
And the great man himself has stoked expectations, claiming that he is ready to win.
But victory after two months out of the game is almost unheard of, even for a player such as Woods - and especially given that his biggest problems appear to be with his short game and his driver, both of which are absolutely critical to success in the year's opening Major.
So is all the big talk hype? Or can Woods really win big on his return to the game?
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Tiger Woods of the U.S. is given the victor's green jacket after winning the Masters golf tournament in Augusta

Image credit: Reuters

WOODS' WORDS OF WISDOM
"I want to win," declared Woods. "The whole idea is to prepare and do that, and I feel like my game is finally ready to go and do that again.
"I worked my ass off. I worked hard. It was something people would never understand how much work I put into it to come back and do this again.
"Competing is still the same. I'm trying to beat everybody out there. That hasn't changed."
McILROY'S MUSINGS
"I played with Tiger in December‑‑ November, sort of end of November last year, and I mean, he played great," said world number one Rory McIlroy, the bookies favourite this week as he bids to win the only title standing between him and the career Grand Slam.
"He birdied six of the first seven holes. He played really, really well. When he came back, I don't think his body was 100 percent, which obviously it wasn't. But he's taken a little bit of time away. I know he's been working hard at home, and he seems like he's come back out and he's ready to go…
"It would have been a bad thing for the sport if he had not been able to come back, so it's great that he's making his first start back here. And hopefully this is the start of a period where he can play continuously and have a good run at it, because, you know, he's 39, turning 40 this year. He's got maybe a few years left where he can play at the top level and he's going to give it his all…
"I think everyone is just curious to see how he comes back. I don't think you should ever underestimate it him. He's done things on the golf course that are pretty special. But you know, just as a golf fan in general, I'm sort of interested to see how he does when he comes back."
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Tiger Woods (L) and Northern Ireland's Rory McIlroy (Reuters)

Image credit: Reuters

FELLOW PROS' VIEWS
"In my book, he's arguably the best player who has ever played the game, so of course I'm going to have some interest to see what he's doing, especially after the break he's had. I heard someone say that he came out by the pitching green and pitched and holed out four times in a row from 35 yards yesterday, so his short game seems to be in pretty good shape." - Sweden's world number two Henrik Stenson
"I do believe that the easiest fix is short game. He's won numerous tournaments because of his short game. I just don't think it's a hard thing to get back. He played in front of me today and I saw him hit some shots and it looked impressive." - Three-times Masters champion Phil Mickelson
"This place brings it out in you. The older champions they get excited around here. That's why everybody comes back. They want to be a part of this. It energizes them. I think that Tiger has taken enough time off to where he wants to be back and obviously he's pretty good around this place, so he is excited. It's the same with him. How would you not be excited to play Augusta National?" - 2012 and 2014 champion Bubba Watson
"I hope he can compete as well as he can. We all know when he's around, somehow it does make us play better." - Reigning US Open champion Martin Kaymer
"Hey, never mind a Major, can he win another event ever again? He hasn’t entered Augusta to make up the numbers, I guarantee that. And he will be so determined to contend here and prove to himself more than anyone that he can still do this. It will be very interesting to see how it all pans out, but let’s hope that it’s not one of him shooting 75 or 76 then saying ‘I’ve hurt my back’ and goes home. Because that would be a disaster for everybody... I would like to think there’s wins in Tiger yet. But what is against Tiger is that the standard of major golf now is incredible. So Tiger hasn’t got to get back to the levels he was at. He has to get back, or forward, to the levels that have now been put in place by the number one player in the world, Rory McIlroy." - Colin Montgomerie
"What he did [earlier this season] was typical of the yips. If he’s got the yips, he’s got a big problem because under pressure it will always come back. Somewhere along the way. Because if you’ve got the yips, you die with the yips.” - Gary Player
OUR VIEW
Tiger Woods used to have the perfect game for Augusta: hitting it miles, with a high ball flight; generating plenty of spin to keep the ball on rock-hard, undulating greens; a magnificent short game; and nerveless putting. So when he turned up at Augusta and won in 1997 his victory felt almost inevitable after the fact.
But the game has changed enormously in the almost 20 years since then. Adaptations to golf club and ball technology mean that pretty much every successful player on the PGA Tour now hits the ball long and high; everyone generates as much spin as they could ever want.
Furthermore, the emphasis on power in the modern game has, paradoxically, meant that the short game is more important than ever: the ability to blast it miles and then get yourself out of trouble is key in modern golf. It's no accident that Phil Mickelson's run of Major victories coincided with these "bomb and gouge" techniques reaching their peak in the last decade.
Simply put, Woods no longer has the advantage over the field that he did 10 or 15 years ago. And while his record in 2013 showed that he can recover from physical deterioration to win multiple times in a season, his failure to make it to the finish line in a Major since 2008 is a serious worry. In other words, it looks likely that Woods has lost his nerve.
When Woods last won the Masters, 10 years ago, he took charge of the tournament in fine style with a back-nine blitz in his rain-delayed third round. He faltered in the final round, and was caught by Chris di Marco - but pulled himself back in with his famous chip-in on the par-3 16th, and some stunning play up the 18th to first make and then win the play-off.
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Steve Williams and Tiger Woods high-five after the famous chip on the 16th at the 2005 Masters

Image credit: Getty Images

Could he do that again, if the circumstances are right? Quite simply, no. From the time that he was stared down in the closing stretch of the 2009 US PGA Championship by unheralded Korean YE Yang, he has lost his superman aura. Though he has recorded top-10s in Majors since then, he has never since made a serious bid to win one of the game's biggest titles.
And while it'd be great to see him at his best once more, there is simply nothing to suggest that he currently has that extra gear he once used to win the famous "Tiger Slam" of four consecutive Majors across the 2000 and 2001 seasons.
What is more, there is nothing to suggest that Woods will ever find that gear again.
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Tiger Woods

Image credit: Getty Images

BOOKIES' ODDS
Tiger Woods was listed at as much as 50-1 before the tournament with some bookmakers, comfortably the highest odds he's ever played under during a Major championship since turning professional.
He has since been cut to 40-1 by most after a flurry of bets - and that extraordinary record of top 10 finishes, the bookies know that even an each-way payout could cost them millions.
Rory McIlroy is the hot favourite at 6-1, with in-form Jordan Spieth and defending champion Bubba Watson join second-favourites at 10-1. The only other players listed at 20-1 or lower are Jason Day (14-1), Dustin Johnson (16-1), Henrik Stenson (20-1) and 2013 champion Adam Scott (20-1).
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