PyeongChang 2018 Virtual Medal Table: Team GB tipped for record haul

Elise Christie's success at the World Short Track Championships has improved Great Britain's projected medal total in Pyeongchang to six, half of which are forecast to be picked up by the Scottish short tracker. Six medals would be Great Britain's best at a Winter Olympics, beating the four won in Sochi and at Chamonix 1924. Curling, freestyle skiing, skeleton and snowboarding also provide realistic medal hopes for the British.

Biathlete Laura Dahlmeier is forecast to be the star of Pyeongchang with six medals including five golds. No German competitor at a single Winter Olympics has won more than three medals. Michael Greis is the only German to have won three gold medals (2006). Dahlmeier's projected gold total has increased by two since last month due to her World Championship win in the 15km individual event and her part in Germany's mixed relay gold at the World Championships. The five gold medals and one silver now projected for Dahlmeier in South Korea next year would be a repeat of her performance at last month's World Championships.

We use results data in "world class events" starting with the 2014 Olympic Games and continuing with World Championships and World Cups or equivalent up to the Olympic Games in Pyeongchang. These results are weighted for the strength of the competition so a World Championships weighs more than a World Cup event for example. They are also weighted for recency so an event which took place last week is more important than one from two or three years ago.

Sport is an unpredictable business, which is why we spend so much of our lives watching it. However, in terms of total medals we would expect to get reasonably close to reality - so within a handful of medals and a very good relationship to the actual rank order. Having said that, we notice that countries over and underperform the data and this Is interesting in itself. In Sochi for example, Russia did a great deal better than the data had suggested they would. The Dutch team's utter dominance of speed skating was also a shock to all and was again a lot better than the data suggested.

At individual level, the margins are very tiny so illness, not being absolutely fit and other things can play a part which it is difficult to foresee. In addition, events like the men's downhill or many of the short track speedskating races are highly unpredictable and often throw up surprise winners. In Sochi, data did a little bit better in terms of predicting the actual medallists than the experts who also attempt this exercise without mathematics.