Eurosport Roundtable: Who will win the Rugby World Cup?

Australia – This could look very silly, very soon, given the Wallabies are in the hardest pool. If they lose just one match – against Wales or England – they might still not progress from the first stage if other results go against them. But you can never bet against Australia on the big stage. They have overcome the odds time and again. They upset New Zealand in the semi-finals in 1991 and beat the same team in 2003 before nearly sneaking past England in the final – despite Sir Clive Woodward’s men clearly being the best side in the world at the time. Oh, and they have won it twice.

Some will say that is all ancient history now, so let’s look ahead. If Australia win Pool A, they likely have a straightforward run to the final. They also snared the recent Rugby Championship ahead of New Zealand, so are battle hardened and in form. And to win in England, after the indignity of losing at home in the 2003 final, would just suit them perfectly, wouldn’t it!

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England - First things first: England aren't the best side in the world. They're not even the best team in Europe (which is quite clearly Ireland, given that they have won the last two Six Nations titles). But there is one very convincing reason indeed why England can win this tournament: everybody else is more likely to mess it up. This is how I see it going: England will beat both Wales and Australia in tight, nervy Pool stage matches where home advantage will prove critical in giving them the edge. The draw then opens up a little - in the sense that if they top the Pool they won't face Australia, and almost certainly not New Zealand either, until the final. And once you get to the final, anything can happen.

As for the rest? They will fall to their familiar demons: the South Africans will be found out (as they were against Japan) for relying on brawn over rugby skill; New Zealand will produce their usual brain-fart performance at some stage, almost certainly against France; Ireland and Wales will both find a way to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory somewhere along the line, managing once again to punch below their weight at a World Cup. That leaves Australia, who probably are the best team in the world at the moment, in a mirror-image of the 2003 final and a straight repeat of the 1991 final. Both of those finals were won by the visitors, an anomaly which will not be repeated in a sport where home turf means so much. Therefore England will win a second title. It's a bit of a shame, really. I'd love to see Ireland or Wales go all the way, but the injuries for Wales and the dip of form for Ireland have just come at the wrong time.

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Alex Chick:

England - It’s not that Stuart Lancaster has at his disposal the best squad at the World Cup (he doesn’t), nor that England were that impressive in their opening game (they weren’t). It is just the sheer importance of home advantage – and England will play virtually their entire campaign at Twickenham regardless of their path out of the group, with just one trip to Manchester to play Uruguay. England aren’t invincible at home, particularly against Southern Hemisphere teams, but they haven’t lost by more than 10 points at Twickenham this decade. The early evidence suggests there is no outstanding side at this tournament, and if that is the case, England look best placed to capitalise.

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New Zealand – Ask five rugby experts who the All Blacks’ star player will be in this tournament and you will likely get five different answers, such is the depth of Steve Hansen’s squad and the quality of his starting XV. Richie McCaw and Dan Carter have dominated world rugby for the past decade but still have enough left in the tank for at least one more World Cup with the opportunity to end their illustrious international careers with another global triumph; All Blacks scrum-half Aaron Smith has the ability to keep teams constantly on the back foot; oh, and Nehe Milner-Skudder is likely going to be the stand-out attacking player in the tournament. New Zealand have all the quality and class to defend their World Cup title and it’s very difficult indeed to see any team being able to dethrone them on the biggest stage.

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South Africa – It has been 20 years since their historic success against the All Blacks in 1995 when Nelson Mandela wore a Springboks shirt, and Francois Pienaar lifted the Webb Ellis Cup amid memorable scenes in Johannesburg. It created one of sport’s most iconic images, and this tournament would be a fitting moment to celebrate the memory of the country’s great leader with another spell as world champions. The Springboks tend to do World Cups well. They are very much a tournament team having carried off the title in 2007 in France, and they have the power, physique and pace to make a serious assault on this competition. Being part of a Pool B that includes Scotland, Samoa, Japan and the USA should give Heyneke Meyer’s a safe passage to the last eight before the real action begins. Won’t fear New Zealand if or when they come across the world champions.

[In case you were wondering, Des was writing his prediction prior to the Springboks' World Cup defeat by Japan on Saturday]

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England – This isn’t merely home propaganda; England have a massive shout at lifting the trophy on October 31. Just look at their southern hemisphere rivals: South Africa are crumbling, New Zealand are renowned bottlers, and Australia have only clicked in recent months. England’s squad may fall short of the class of 2003, but it’s not as far adrift as many would have you think. Mike Brown and Jonathan Joseph should provide the flair, George Ford the creativity and captain Chris Robshaw the inspiration. Having a difficult group will work to their advantage – helping them hit their best early on, while their rivals outside Pool A find it hard to adjust after cantering through the early stages. Chuck in the most fervent of home backings, and there’s every reason to believe this is England’s year.

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Wales – Who needs Leigh Halfpenny? Four years ago Wales came within a Sam Warburton red card of their first ever World Cup final appearance, and they can go one better this time. The absence of full-back Halfpenny to an ACL injury on the eve of the tournament is a cruel blow and robs the Welsh of one of their genuine world-class talents, but they possess enough quality in reserve and elsewhere in the starting 15 to compensate for it. A tough group that pits them against England, Australia and old foes Fiji means Warren Gatland’s side will have to be at their best from the off, but if they can gather momentum from positive results against the big boys there are few who can live with the Welsh backline in full flow.

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