Ding tipped

My prediction for the semi-final line-up:

Ding Junhui v Mark Williams

Shaun Murphy v Neil Robertson

After this I predict Ding will beat Robertson 18-10 in the final.

Before anyone suggests therapy, I should point out that I used to have a very good record in tipping the winner of the world title. This was mainly because I always used to tip Stephen Hendry.

I also called it for Mark Williams and Ronnie O'Sullivan the years they won it and, in 2003, got all four semi-finalists right.

In the last three years, though, I don't think I've got any of them right. The reason is quite simple: there are so few tournaments that form is irrelevant.

OK, so Murphy, Mark Selby and Stephen Maguire have been the three form players of the season but by the time the Crucible comes round none of them will have played for three weeks (apart from Selby's two days in the Championship League).

The last three winners – Murphy, Graeme Dott and John Higgins – all had poor seasons heading to Sheffield before finding form over the 17 days.

Ding is my tip to win, which is strange, really, when you consider he has the hardest first round draw in Marco Fu.

He could lose this but if he doesn't I fancy him to go all the way.

Williams has, of course, been off the boil of late but let's not forget that its only five years since he won the biggest cheque in snooker history - £270,000 – in winning the title for a second time (incidentally, I've no idea what the winner gets this year as the prize money appears to be a state secret).

With O'Sullivan's tendency this season to struggle against the more methodical players, I think Williams has a great chance to take him out in the second round.

Murphy is Mr. Consistency and although he's in a tough quarter that includes Selby and Peter Ebdon, I reckon he'll come through it.

Robertson has done nothing of note all season but is the sort of player who could suddenly spring into life with devastating effect.

Maguire is favourite in this quarter but has been laid up this last week with flu and unable to practice – hardly ideal preparation for the game's biggest event.

There will no doubt be shock results at the Crucible, but what constitutes a shock?

For instance, would Mark Allen beating Hendry be a shock considering he did so at the same stage of this season's UK Championship?

Or Matthew Stevens beating John Higgins?

The biggest shock of them all at Sheffield was Tony Knowles's 10-1 trouncing of the then defending champion Steve Davis in 1982.

However, if Liu Chuang beats O'Sullivan this year it will dwarf that and then some. It would be the most surprising victory in the sport's history.

To qualify as a shock, the losing player must be one of the very top players and the winner has to be a virtual unknown, or someone whose career has been going downhill.

Hendry was famously 'shocked' twice in the first round, by Jimmy White in 1998 and Stuart Bingham in 2000. He also lost to Nigel Bond in 2006 but this wasn't such a shock because Hendry was not considered the title favourite, as he had been the previous two times.

O'Sullivan's defeat to David Gray in 2000 was a surprise, as was Higgins's to Selby in 2006.

Davis was not expected to lose to Ebdon in 1992 and John Parrott's defeat to Rod Lawler in 1996 was a complete surprise.

So where will the shocks come this year?

Looking at the first round matches, I think Maguire could be vulnerable against Anthony Hamilton, which would be a surprise result because Maguire's had a good season and just won the China Open.

Also, I wouldn't rule out Mark King upsetting Selby.