7 keys to Andy Murray beating Novak Djokovic in the Australian Open final

Updated 31/01/2016 at 08:24 GMT

Andy Murray finds himself in the final of the Australian Open for the fifth time, having previously lost to Novak Djokovic in 2011, 2013 and 2015 – but how can he come out on top this time?

Novak Djokovic (L) of Serbia holds up his trophy next to runner-up Andy Murray of Britain after winning their men's singles final match at the 2015 Australian Open in Melbourne

Image credit: Reuters

The world number two, who was beaten in the 2010 final by Roger Federer before suffering his three frustrating defeats to Djokovic, has been the first to play down his chances ahead of Sunday’s clash.

“I don’t think many people are expecting me to win – I just have to believe in myself,” the 28-year-old said.

But here’s how a few optimistic experts believe Murray can finally overcome the doughty Serb – yes, we did say optimistic, but then who thought Angelique Kerber would beat Serena Williams?

Australian Open

FACTBOX: Novak Djokovic v Andy Murray head-to-head

30/01/2016 at 13:24

1. Win the mind games, don’t fall into his trap

“When things are not going well for Djokovic, he looks like a baby fowl, sliding all over the place,” Greg Rusedski told the Daily Telegraph. “When the pressure is on, sometimes his footwork begins to slide. He loses his positioning and it looks like he is slipping around the court. He starts hitting his forehand from a funny position. His feet are not quite right.

"You have to realise he will last the distance. Murray will not fall into that trap again, because he has seen it before.

2. Home in on his forehand

“If Djokovic has any slight weakness from the back of the court when pressure mounts, it is usually on the forehand side,” Rusedski explained to the Telegraph.

When he gets nervous, his forehand gets slightly erratic and he begins to doubt himself. This is where you have to keep the pressure on him and not drop your level at all, because if you do he will come back with a vengeance.

3. Give him no pace, no angles

The Coach: Djokovic, unbeatable? Not at all, and here's how Murray can beat him

4. Remember how you beat him before

"This will come down to his coach Amelie Mauresmo," 1977 Australian Open finalist John Lloyd told the BBC. "They will be thinking and talking about the two Grand Slam finals Andy has beaten Novak in and won't be thinking about the losses.

"Draw on the positives, you've beaten him before and you can do it again. It's not as if he is getting wiped off the floor when he loses.

"He has a good attitude and other people will have written him off and Andy will like that."

Novak Djokovic (L) of Serbia holds up his trophy next to runner-up Andy Murray of Britain after winning their men's singles final match at the 2015 Australian Open in Melbourne

Image credit: Reuters

5. Play to the crowd, Djokovic doesn't like it

"If there is one thing we know about Djokovic, it is that he does not like it when the crowd gets on his back," says Simon Cambers in the Guardian.

"He has become better at coping but, quite understandably, he still finds it hard to understand why they might want his opponent to win and occasionally he can let it rattle him.

"Murray needs to find a way to get the crowd on his side early on, either by his own play or by being gutsy. Australians love winners but they also love an underdog and a trier so having lost in four previous finals, they will not need much encouragement to back him in this one."

6. Do not stay back and trade from the back of the court

"Murray will need to go in with a game plan, give it absolutely everything and go for it," Andrew Castle told the BBC. "I don't think that over five sets in Australia he can stay back and trade from the back of the court.

"If you're number two in the world and are as stubborn, massively determined and as fit as Andy is then you don't walk out there thinking, 'I will lose this one'.

"OK, he has lost 10 of the past 11 but he has beaten Novak Djokovic in a Wimbledon final and a US Open final and other times as well. In the French Open semi-finals [in 2015] in the third and fourth sets he blew Novak off the court. It was amazing."

Serbia's Novak Djokovic (R) shakes hands with Britain's Andy Murray

Image credit: AFP

7. Play completely differently to normal

“(Gilles) Simon played a completely different way and was very successful for a large part of that match,” Murray himself pointed out to reporters at the Australian Open.

“If you want to win against Novak you have to maintain your intensity for a long time and your level for a very long time.