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Davis Cup final: How the tie between Belgium and Great Britain could pan out

Eurosport
ByEurosport

Updated 26/11/2015 at 15:57 GMT

After Thursday's announcement, we now know who will play whom in the final of the Davis Cup this weekend. So, can Great Britain really go on and win the competition for the first time since 1936?

General view during the Davis Cup draw

Image credit: Reuters

On Thursday afternoon the finalists of this year's Davis Cup named their final teams, completing the final formalities ahead of what promises to be an enthralling and unpredictable final in Ghent.
Perhaps swayed by the clay court surface that hosts Belgium have selected at the Flanders Expo, Great Britain captain Leon Smith has decided to give 20-year-old Kyle Edmund - who won a challenger event on clay in Argentina recently - his competition debut on the biggest stage of all.
Smith will be hoping that Edmund can perhaps steal a singles rubber, but once again the majority of the pressure and expectation is going to fall on Andy Murray, with the world No. 2 knowing he can deliver victory almost single-handedly (as he has done in previous rounds) if he wins all three of his rubbers - two singles encounters and Saturday's doubles alongside Jamie Murray.
So now we know how the two teams have been set out, we can take a look at how the final might pan out...
picture

Ruben Bemelmans and Andy Murray shake hands

Image credit: Reuters

FRIDAY

David Goffin v Kyle Edmund

World ranking: 16 v 100
Head-to-head: Never met
Tactically, you wonder if Leon Smith got his first win of the weekend when it was revealed that this, and not Goffin v Murray, would be the first match of the tournament. Without trying to simplify things too much it would seem Belgium's hopes rest in significant part on Goffin's ability to beat Andy Murray in their singles meeting, and Belgium might have figured it would be better if that meeting happened on the opening day - setting the tone rather than reacting to it, and perhaps catching Murray while his clay court game is still a little rustier than it could be.
Perhaps host captain Johan van Herck anticipated that Smith would decided to put out his A-lister first, and wanted to fight fire with fire - only to be outwitted. Or perhaps he was always content to leave what figures to be the final's pivotal singles match until the final day.
As it is, Goffin will surely go in as a healthy favourite over Edmund, the surprise debutant selection who has shown a bit of form on clay recently. Beyond his challenger exploits the Brit also reached the second round of the French Open this year in a rare grand slam foray - but Goffin is a good few leaps further ahead in his career and, while not exactly a clay court specialist himself, should win comfortably unless the occasion affects the players in starkly opposing ways.
Verdict: Edmund, a 2011 junior Davis Cup finalists, may well rise to the occasion - but as long as Goffin does not completely choke (and there is no reason to suspect he will), he should be able to grind out a victory. However, Smith might well think Edmund will have done his job simply if he manages to wear Goffin down a bit ahead of that looming second singles meeting - and this could easily be an attritional four-setter that would tick that particular box.

Ruben Bemelmans v Andy Murray

World ranking: 108 v 2
Head-to-head: Never met
On paper this is a match that should not worry Murray, with Bemelmans significantly his inferior in both world ranking and clay court experience. The pair have never faced each other before - a slight cause for concern, the fear of the unknown - but the fact Bemelmans was last seen on tour getting beaten comfortably by world No. 156 Karen Khachanov at a challenger event in France suggests he is hardly in scintillating form.
Having said that, there is a certain evidence that the 27-year-old rises to the occasion: At this year's US Open he beat both Gilles Muller and Jack Sock (well, Sock retired hurt in oppressively hot conditions) before falling to Stan Wawrinka 2-6 6-7 4-6 in the third round. That suggests the stage alone might inspire him to a few moments of magic against the Scot, but a mischevious organiser might well have to turn up the air conditioning inside Flanders Expo to 11 if he is to actually get the victory.
Verdict: Murray should win in three, and probably with comfort too.
picture

Flanders Expo, site of the Davis Cup

Image credit: Reuters

SATURDAY
(Lineups subject to change)

Kimmer Coppejans/Steve Darcis v Andy Murray/Jamie Murray

World ranking: n/a
Head-to-head: Never met
While the Friday matchups are set in stone, from this point onwards the two captains can shift things around depending on how the match is unfolding. Steve Darcis and Kimmer Coppejans are currently pencilled in for the hosts, for example, but if Great Britain should win both Friday's matches you would assume that Goffin could be thrust back into action in a bid to stave off a 3-0 defeat.
The doubles, however, might just be where Great Britain has the biggest advantage - which could ultimately prove decisive. Murray and Murray are not a regular tour doubles partnership but they have an intimate understanding of each other's games (and psyches) that make them pretty formidable together. They are beatable - they were knocked out in the first round of the 2012 Olympics by David Ferrer and Feliciano Lopez - but still have more quality than anything the Belgians can muster.
Coppejans and Darcis are the current selection being put forward, but Darcis lost his only previous doubles rubber (against Israel in 2013) and it should be no surprise if Bemelmans (or, if the tie is 2-0, Goffin) ends up replacing the veteran, who is perhaps more suited to being a wildcard selection in Sunday's singles.
Verdict: It will certainly not be easy for the British duo, but they undoubtedly start with the advantage and should be able to secure a vital point - although perhaps not in straight sets.
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The two Davis Cup final teams line up

Image credit: Reuters

SUNDAY
(Lineups subject to change)

David Goffin v Andy Murray

World ranking: 16 v 2
Head-to-head: Met twice, two Murray wins
This could be where the cup is won. Given the dynamics of the three prior matches you would suggest that Britain should arrive on Sunday with a 2-1 advantage - meaning that a win in this rubber for Murray will be enough to secure a historic British victory
It will not be easy, but it should be achievable. Goffin is a classy player on the rise (although he has perhaps not quite progressed as some anticipated since emerging a few years ago) and, with a raucous home crowd behind him, will likely play somewhat beyond his usually capabilities. He is on a six-match winning run in the Davis Cup, and has only lost twice since the two sides last met in Glasgow in 2012 (when Goffin beat Josh Goodall in the singles), so cannot be dismissed out of hand.
He is Belgium's totem every bit as much as Murray is Great Britain's, and so cannot be expected to simply fold because his opponent has a better world ranking.
Nevertheless, Murray has won the last two meetings between the two men - dropping just a solitary game when they last met in Paris earlier this year. But they have never faced each other on clay...
Verdict: This promises to be an intense, emotional match for both players - and for Murray a huge final test to complete a draining season. He will have to dig deep ... but surely he will be able to produce a victory that clinches the Davis Cup for Great Britain?

Ruben Bemelmans v Kyle Edmund

World ranking: 108 v 100
Head-to-head: Never met
So, if things go according to plan, Britain will have wrapped up the tournament by the time of this rubber, but it is far from impossible that, with so many borderline ties, the score is left at 2-2 and everything is decided by the final match. Kyle Edmund, we hope you are good with the nerves!
Of course, there is no guarantee that Edmund will even be entrusted with the responsibility of playing the final rubber. It is conceivable that Leon Smith is already planning on putting James Ward in here, giving the British No. 4 (who enjoys clay above all surfaces) time to fully focus on what could be the 'anchor leg'. If he has told both men beforehand that would certainly clarify their respective thought processes, allowing Ward extra time to study his opponent from the sidelines.
That would be one approach but, even if Smith is currently planning to play Edmund twice, a poor performance against Goffin will surely lead to a change of tact. Ward needs to be ready.
Belgium, similarly, could easily change their lineup - Darcis, who once beat Rafa Nadal at Wimbledon, would be a real wildcard choice - making it almost impossible to make any concrete predictions about this match. Darcis is the third-highest ranked player in this tie, so on paper Belgium have the advantage, and in truth it feels like it would be asking a lot for either Ward or Edmund to deliver a victory amidst what would be a hugely partisan crowd. Let's hope it is already decided before this!
Verdict: Without knowing who will actually play, who knows? But Belgium have the more encouraging options, so from a British point of view they will surely be hoping that Murray will have already done the business before it comes to this...
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