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Who stands between Andy Murray and Roland Garros glory?

Desmond Kane

Updated 20/05/2016 at 20:45 GMT

Desmond Kane studies Andy Murray's possible route to the French Open final, and concludes the world number two will never have a better chance of emerging victorious on the Paris clay.

Britain's Andy Murray returns the ball to Kazakhstan's Mikhail Kukushkin during the ATP Tennis Open tournament at the Foro Italico, on May 11, 2016 in Rome.

Image credit: AFP

Round One - Radek Stepanek (CZE)

Murray will be expected to sweep aside the Czech veteran with relative ease. Given that it will be over five sets on clay, the British No 1 will not be overly concerned about his defeat by the 37-year-old at Queen's, on grass, in 2014. Stepanek is now ranked at 129 and had to qualify for the Roland Garros tournament. He trails Murray 6-2 in their head to head. A nice way to get started.

Round Two - Mathias Bourgue (FRA) or qualifier

Murray's second outing in the opening week will see him confront Mathias Bourge, assuming the French world number 165 is himself not unseated by a qualifier. What do we know about Bourge? Well, he is 22, received a wild card to the doubles draw of the French Open in 2014 and will have won his first match at a Grand Slam if he manages to secure a meeting with the Scot. Due to home interest, this is likely to be given significant billing, but expect Murray to give Bourge short shrift.

Round Three - Ivo Karlovic (CRO)

Murray should be well into his stride by this stage, and will be heartened to see the world number 29 Karlovic across the net. Assuming the giant-serving Croatian player advances to the last 32, he is unlikely to trouble Murray, who enjoys a 6-0 lead over Karlovic in career head-to-head meetings. Murray was pushed to four sets by the 37-year-old at Wimbledon in 2012 and 2015, but that was grass, this is clay. The serve is unlikely to unduly trouble Murray on such a sluggish surface especially with Murray's obvious prowess in finding returns with interest.

Round Four - John Isner (USA)

At least facing Karlovic will mean Murray has his eye in by the time he comes across another huge server in the form of American John Isner. But we are making huge assumptions by saying Isner will still be around by the second week of the Grand Slam on clay. If he gets this far, he would equal his best run at the tournament which came in reaching the last 16 two years ago. The world number 17 has never beaten Murray in five of their meetings stretching back to the Australian Open last 16 in 2010. Isner did pinch a set from Murray in the US Open quarter-finals five years ago, but a first meeting between the men on clay would surely fall to the Scot.

Quarter-finals - Kei Nishikori (JPN)

This is where it starts to get interesting for Murray as we begin to learn if Britain's great hope really has the minerals to deliver. Anybody who witnessed Nishikori's ball striking during his three-set defeat over three hours to Novak Djokovic in the Rome Masters semi-finals will be well aware of the threat the world number six could pose.
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Kei Nishikori

Image credit: AFP

Again, Murray's record is outstanding against Nishikori, who is three years his junior at 26. Murray has lost only once to Nishikori in their seven previous meetings at the World Tour finals in London two years ago, but crucially the Dunblane man enjoyed a straight sets success against Nishikori in the semi-final of last year's Madrid Masters, an event he won with a final success against Rafael Nadal. Will be tricky, but expect Murray to prevail.

Semi-finals - Stanislas Wawrinka (SUI)

Wawrinka has just reached the final of the Geneva Open so is obviously a man in form. The defending champion will provide a huge roadblock to Murray if he makes it to the last four. While Stan Wawrinka is not Switzerland's most famous tennis son, he is certainly their most unpredictable. At least with Roger Federer, you know what level of excellence to expect. Stan the man can either be wretched or unplayable as Djokovic will testify having been blown off the court by a man who looked like he was dressed for a day at the beach to come up agonisingly short in his pursuit of a career Grand Slam.
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Stanislas Wawrinka celebrates his French Open win

Image credit: AFP

More concerning for Murray, is the head-to-head which favours him by the odd match in 15. Wawrinka certainly knows how to handle Murray. and has won their past three matches including a 6-1 6-2 romp in the last 16 at Monte Carlo two years ago. If the number four seed is in the mood, Murray has his hands full to reach the final. "The good thing is I know I can win big tournaments," he comments. "I know I can beat the top guys and hopefully I can do it again a few times this year.” Stan speaks the truth.

Final - Novak Djokovic (SRB) or Rafael Nadal (ESP)

It would be a major surprise if Murray reaches the final, and does not face one of these two. He will start second favourite against both men, but would probably be better placed to deal with Nadal having enjoyed notable victories over him on clay in the Madrid final a year ago, and in the Madrid semi-finals earlier this month. Nadal holds a 17-7 winning record over Murray, but they are tied at 4-4 in career head-to-heads over the past five years. Murray has certainly improved since losing semi-finals to Nadal at Roland Garros in 2011 and 2014.
Of course, there is not much we can add to the Djokovic conundrum. Djokovic seems to do what Murray does just a little bit better. Especially on the big occasion.
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Novak Djokovic congratulates Andy Murray in Rome

Image credit: AFP

If the world number one performs at his peak levels, he tends to win matches. Djokovic is 23-10 clear of Murray in career jousts, winning 12 of their previous 14 matches, but the Scotsman enjoyed a psychological boost by completing his first win over Djoker on clay in the final of Rome Masters last week. Djokovic was flogged by that stage having overcome Nadal and Nishikori to reach that final, but Murray pulled off some thrilling shots. Murray will dream of having the last word if their latest tête-à-tête is the final denouement of this year's French Open.
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