Roger Federer's glorious gold rush against Rafael Nadal shows no signs of drying up

In the autumn of the year, there is a spring in his golden step. Roger Federer marked Rafael Nadal's card in the final of the Shanghai Masters with a victory that is worthy of considered thought in what it may bring this year. And next.

The end-of-season battle between Nadal and Federer for world number one is largely a phoney war despite Federer keeping the issue alive with a rousing 6-4 6-3 success. Unless there is another miraculous twist to a tennis season that has already more unpredictability than Nick Kyrgios on an off day, Nadal will end the season on high.

Much is being made of Federer’s prospects of usurping the Mallorcan in the death throes of the season by conquering Basel, Paris and the World Tour finals in London. Despite tantalising thoughts of reaching the summit at the age of 36 before the year is out, it is a three-peat he might not even attempt. Not least because the pursuit of the world number one spot is such a physically and mentally draining demand. And the question must be asked: does he really need it?

A year ago, a hip Andy Murray, suddenly hobbling with a hip problem, chased and successfully hunted down Novak Djokovic at the top of the standings by claiming the China Open, Shanghai, the Vienna Open, the Paris Masters and the World Tour finals in an awe-inspiring finale to the season.

But the damage to both men in that joust has been there for all to see this year. As form and injury has drained both men of colour in trying to maintain consistency, thriving 30-somethings Federer and Nadal have returned in full bloom to assume centre stage in their absence.

The Swiss Indoors in Basel beginning on October 23 and the World Tour finals at the O2 on November 12 are probably tournaments Federer will contest, and could conceivably win, but Paris in between could be swerved to give the Swiss time to ready himself for London.

"We’ll decide what I’m going to play, Basel, Paris, one of those tournaments or both or none, before I go to London because that’s my priority right now," said Federer.

The season-ending World Tour finals is arguably the fifth major in the sport, a tournament contested between the world’s top eight. But the belief that comes with beating Nadal with such regularity is much more important to Federer, whose Shanghai win sees him join Nadal on six titles this year. Remarkably, he has managed it while also skipping the main clay court swing through April and May.

Federer last lost to Nadal in the last four of the Australian Open in 2014. He has recorded five straight wins over Nadal, four coming this year, three in finals of the Australian Open, Miami and Shanghai. He has a bigger racket, he is serving with more potency and he is much, much more aggressive on the backhand side.

It has been a theme of his success this year. He has attacked on the backhand side with as much reliability as the forehand. In clubbing away 28 winners against Nadal in Shanghai, 11 came on the backhand side.

Rather than Nadal gobbling up the weaker Federer backhand, it is he who must revisit his strategy to see how he copes with Federer armed with a bigger racket. In the face of things, there is not much he can do apart from avoid the temptation to leave it short with Federer swinging freely.

In a year when he and Nadal have carved up the four Grand Slams between them, it is an astonishing turnaround. Federer moves from an 11-23 record to a much more healthy 15-23 given Nadal’s 13-2 lead on clay. On faster surfaces, Federer leads 13-10.

The bigger picture for Federer is making sure he is in pristine condition ahead of his tilt at a 20th Grand Slam title at the Australian Open in January, a home from home for him, and the prospect of re-establishing a four Slam lead over Nadal in the all-time list.

Having been forced to withdraw from the Cincinnati Masters due to a back injury in mid-August, Federer was nowhere near peak fitness in losing to Juan Martin del Potro in the quarter-finals of the US Open in early September. Choosing his schedule wisely has been the key to his astonishing longevity. For many the season is coming to a natural end, but Federer should view Shanghai as the first step on the road to Melbourne as he picks and chooses events with more accuracy than his winners. Out of 10 tour events played in 2017, he has won six.

Even with Djokovic, Murray and Stanislas Wawrinka due to return from injury at the Australian Open, Federer has reassembled his potency as a serial Grand Slam winner. In peak condition, he should thrive and survive well in three of the four next year.

A year is a long time in tennis. Federer went to Melbourne armed with hope 10 months ago having last won a major in 2012. This time, he knows how to win and crucially has a formula for negating Nadal. It is a gold rush that shows no signs of drying up by the time he returns to prospecting Down Under.