Giro d'Italia 2018: Will Simon Yates go the distance and make Giro d'Italia history?

Yates has been outstanding in the 101st edition of La Corsa Rosa. With the exception of the flat opening road stage in Israel, the 25-year-old has not finished lower than 34th place in two weeks' of racing. He has three stage wins, gifted team-mate Esteban Chaves another on Mount Etna, and came a few breaths short of Chris Froome on the fearsome Zoncolan.

Showing echoes of Valverdian consistency, Yates has finished in the top five in eight out of 15 stages and has had more pink lipstick on his cheeks than Elton John in his prime.

In fact, the only of his GC rivals to whom he has conceded any time at any point in the race is the defending champion Dumoulin, to whom he limited his losses to just 20 seconds in the opening time trial – setting the tone for a series of colossal performances thereafter.

Aware of Dumoulin's superiority against the clock, Yates has ridden to take seconds wherever possible ever since – and will enter the all-important 34.2km ITT on Tuesday with 2'11" to play with.

His performances have not been without their critics, mind. By finishing behind Froome on Monte Zoncolan, the sceptics raised their eyebrows at a British one-two from two riders with well documented asthma problems on the hardest ascent in Europe. (Yates, if you remember, sat out a four-month ban in 2015 for "non-intentional doping" over a doctor's TUE mix-up for an inhaler.)

Meanwhile, the outspoken French trainer and anti-doping campaigner Antoine Vayer described his performance in Stage 15 as Riccardo Ricco-esque and drew parallels between the Bury-born rider and Messrs Pantani, Indurain and Simoni, followed by an ellipsis of heavy inference…

Even his biggest rival has been caught unawares by Yates's unexpectedly strong race.

And such is the unbelievable nature of Yates's performances, many – even those clearly delusional about the unlikely possibility of a Froome comeback – seem to think he cannot sustain his form through to the end.

But even the doubters cannot take anything away from Yates' tactical nous and the consistent support he has received from his excellent Mitchelton-Scott team. Can he go the distance? It will be hard, but Yates and his team are looking the best equipped to pulling off an historic win.

Let's go through each of the remaining stages and make a dramatic prediction as to who will win this thrilling edition of the Giro d'Italia.

With a largely flat course ideally suited to Tom Dumoulin, it's not a question of if the Dutchman will beat Simon Yates, it's by how much. 20 seconds separated the pair over 9.7km in Jerusalem – which would correspond to 70 seconds in Rovereto, still over a minute shy of what Dumoulin needs.

Looking back at the only other time trial the pair have ridden together this year, Dumoulin finished 18 seconds clear in Abu Dhabi over 12.6km (adjusted up to 49 seconds over Tuesday's 34.2km).

In 2016, Dumoulin's advantage in the Paris-Nice 6.1km prologue was 19 seconds (+106 seconds). In the 2015 Tour de France at Utrecht the gap was 38 seconds over 13.8km (+94 seconds) and in Paris-Nice that year, over 6.7km, it was 28 seconds (+143 seconds).

The only shoddy comparisons we can make from last year is taking Dumoulin's effort in the Giro's deciding time trial in Monza (33'23" over 29.3km) set against Yates' effort in Marseille in stage 20 of the Tour (29'49" over 22.5km). That works out at a 6'04" (or 364-second) swing.

But the hillier nature of the Marseille course skews the result – so let's factor in Yates's opening TT of 16'41" over 14km in Dusseldorf, which brings down the gap to 1'30" or 90 seconds.

Taking an average from all the above (913 divided by 7) puts Dumoulin 131 seconds to the better of Yates over 34.2km. And that – I kid you not – is exactly 2'11". Of course, this doesn't factor in fatigue, adrenaline, wind, morale and all that jazz, but wow, we're in for a tight final week.

1. Tom Dumoulin, 2. Simon Yates +00, 3. Thibaut Pinot +1:56

It's a rolling stage that suits a breakaway but could see Bora-Hansgrohe do their best to distance Elia Viviani and deliver San Bennett to the line for a third win that could put him back in the frame for the maglia ciclamino. Either way, there shouldn't be a major casualty in the battle for GC although you expect someone to 'do a Chaves' and crack soon after the start as the road ramps up from the outset for a 10km uncategorised climb. One name springs to mind…

No change, although Chris Froome is distanced early and loses a packet.

A break should form early on as the race covers flat plains of rice fields, vineyards and hazelnut plantations. The gap should be big enough to take the bonus seconds out of the equation, while the final 20km climb to the finish should be long and steady enough for Dumoulin to match Yates pedal for pedal. Froome's yo-yoing may continue – and he should be concerned that this is where Denis Menchov crashed while going uphill in 2008.

Perhaps the likes of Thibaut Pinot, Domenico Pozzovivo, Richard Carapaz and Miguel Angel Lopez will claw back some time here while the two big guns cancel each other out.

1. Tom Dumoulin, 2. Simon Yates +00, 3. Thibaut Pinot +1:41

It's rare to go an entire Grand Tour without an off-day – and the commanding Yates has yet to have his jours sans. Could this be the stage where he has his Steven Kruijswijk moment? Perhaps it will be more like his Alberto-Contador-in-2015 moment, when the Spaniard was forced to ride the Colle delle Finestre alone and limit his losses to Fabio Aru to under two-and-a-half minutes.

Such was his buffer on the race's penultimate stage, Contador still held on to the pink jersey in spite of his loss. And there's been something of the vintage Contador in the way Yates has been riding this Giro. But say he has a problem on the first climb of the day and is forced to ride with team-mate Jack Haig up the gravel tracks of the Cima Coppi before clawing back on the final climb of the Jafferau to keep his dream alive – that would be the sign of a real champion.

1. Tom Dumoulin, 2. Simon Yates +16, 3. Thibaut Pinot +1:35

Of course, Dumoulin, too, has not really had a bad day either. Even when distanced on the zinger of a stage to Sappada, he managed to fight back and take third place and some bonus seconds. And while the Dutch powerhouse is too meticulous to suffer the indignity of another call-of-nature blunder, he's not beyond feeling the pressure while in pink and cracking on the third of successive summit finishes.

A role reversal of last year's decisive final-day time trial, Dumoulin may find himself needing the ride of his life to keep hold of the pink jersey with Yates looking to overturn a negative split at the 11th hour. The final climb to Cervinia is not too tough but comes after two highly challenging ascents. From what we've seen so far, it's hard looking beyond Yates for the win here – whether he'll do it in pink or in pursuit of pink.

By our reckoning in these very sketchy predictions – and remember, we're going for ultimate drama and not measured analysis – it's going to be the latter. Yates to win and take the 10 bonus seconds with Dumoulin almost a minute back to concede the maglia rosa. Of course, there's always the possibility of Yates being three seconds down on his rival and being left ruing the four seconds he conceded in gifting Etna to Chaves…

1. Simon Yates, 2. Tom Dumoulin +55, 3. Thibaut Pinot +2:12

Ten laps in the capital city concluding with an Elia Viviani victory to secure the maglia rosa and, more importantly, the crowing of Britain's first ever winner of the Giro d'Italia. Simon Yates will also take the maglia azzurra while Miguel Angel Lopez will win the white jersey by a couple of minutes over Richard Carapaz. And Marco Frapporti of Androni Giocattoli to win the breakaway / intermediate sprints award. Phew, what a race.

If our eyes have fallen predominantly on Yates and Dumoulin it's for good reason. On Sunday, the Dutchman pulled no punches as he laid into his fellow pink jersey pretenders, claiming they were "taking the piss" and more concerned with riding for the other places on the podium or, in the case of Carapaz and Lopez, the white jersey.

It's true that the likes of Pinot, Pozzovivo (who Dumoulin flagged up for his "short coward-pulls"), Lopez and Carapaz are on an inferior level to Yates, while Froome's short-lived revival on the Zoncolan was more a case of going for broke than turning things round.

Almost five minutes down, Froome cannot win this race and should not get anywhere near the podium. The final spot seems to be a showdown between Pozzovivo and Pinot, while Lopez and Carapaz battle for the white jersey. The only rider who you sense could do something special in the third week is the Colombian Lopez, especially with the support of his gung-ho Astana team.

But Lopez will ship so much time against the clock on Tuesday, it will more a case of saving his race with a win or two while cementing the white jersey and a top-five finish – perhaps even edging onto the podium. A two-horse race it is.

1 Yates, 2. Dumoulin, 3. Pinot, 4. Lopez, 5. Pozzovivo, 6. Froome, 7. Carapaz, 8. Bennett, 9. Bilboa, 10. Konrad