Blazin' Saddles: Are Sky leaning towards Geraint Thomas and a Plan G?

The annual will-Geraint-Thomas-leave-Sky stories appeared again this year – as is their custom around the time the Welshman's contract comes up for renegotiation.

But having won the Critérium du Dauphiné in June, and with doubts at that point still circling the beleaguered Froome with regards to his AAF for salbutamol, it was an easy decision for Thomas to prolong.

And now the 32-year-old could be on the verge of repaying Sky while benefiting from years of service and patience.

With nine stages down on the Tour – including Sunday's dramatic stage to Roubaix – Thomas is the only contender for yellow who has not lost any time or come a cropper. He's avoided crashes and mechanicals, sitting comfortably in second place just 43 seconds down on race leader Greg Van Avermaet. So far, so uncharacteristically good.

Fewer summit finishes this year could play into the hands of Thomas, who will enter phase two of the race just as protected as Froome in the Sky hierarchy. At the very most, Thomas could find himself much more than a Plan B should Froome falter; at the very least, "G" should find himself on course for his highest finish in the Tour and certainly a maiden top ten.

On his second podcast for Eurosport, Bradley Wiggins, a former team-mate of both riders at Sky, said after Sunday's swashbuckling stage that a "self-serving" and "divisive" Dave Brailsford will now push both his riders to try to win the Tour.

Mindful of how he has cracked in the past – and perhaps how Simon Yates imploded recently on the Giro – Thomas will take nothing for granted until he has got through this next Alpine tranche of the race. But enter the final Pyrenean phase of the race still ahead of Froome on GC, then Sky will have some big decisions to make.

Let's take a look at what’s gone wrong so far for the other yellow jersey contenders – in order of their current positions on GC.

Like Thomas, the Luxembourg champion has hardly put a foot wrong. Jungels even has two top 10s in the Giro – which is more to say than Thomas. But you nevertheless sense that the Quick-Step rider is not quite of the same calibre as the Welshman. Seven seconds now could be seven minutes in a fortnight.

The Spanish veteran's deficit is all down to Movistar's TTT and Valverde has otherwise been brilliant. It remains to be seen, however, if he has to support Nairo Quintana in the mountains. In any case, he may struggle to keep up with the best climbers on some of the more demanding mountain stages.

The Pole has ridden a very canny race – very much under the radar save for his fall on the cobbles (and Oliver Naesen's acrobatic evasive action). Majka entered the race very much out of the spotlight given the perennial focus on his world champion Bora-Hansgrohe team-mate Peter Sagan. But, like Thomas, he's on course for a maiden Tour top 10 provided he can find his climbing legs.

The Dane crashed on the cobbles but recovered well and is very much in the mix. He'll miss the injured Luis Leon Sanchez in the mountains but is on schedule for his best finish on the Tour since 2013, when he finished seventh. But given his results since then, it's hard to see the Astana man as a genuine contender.

Still the man to beat, Froome's race has been far from incident-free: from his crash into a fiend in stage one to his over-the-handlebars-and-over-Gianni-Moscon spill on the cobbles, the defending champion is lucky not to be further behind, or even out of the picture entirely.

You sense that, like the Giro, Froome is growing into this race gradually and will be at his best in the third week. It will be interesting to see if Thomas is himself still in the mix at that point or if "natural selection" (to coin Wiggo's phrase) will ensure Sky's focus is all about Froome's fifth win.

The young Briton suffered a bit of a baptism of fire over the opening weekend with crashes and mechanicals. But a strong team performance in the TTT – and over the cobbles – fully justified Mitchelton-Scott's decision to forget the sprints and focus on GC alone this year. Now it's up to Yates to repay the trust and show that he shares his brother's uphill ability. The jury is still out.

It was all going perfectly until the Spaniard took a sip of water on a section of restorative tarmac with 33km remaining of Sunday's stage to Roubaux and ended up in a heap on the floor. If it was a desperately unlucky turn of events for Landa, then the way he heroically fought back was to be highly commended. Healing up aside, the question now remains if he'll be let off the leash or muzzled in the Alps.

The word on the street is that the Milan-Sanremo and former Tour champion is purring along in the form of his life. Despite Bahrain-Merida's horror show in the TTT, Nibali has managed to stay up, stay out of trouble, and stay very much in contention. He's very much one of the favourites – if not the man to watch.

The way LottoNL-Jumbo combined to get the Slovenian back into the first bunch after the crosswind chaos of stage 6 on Thursday suggests the team thinks highly of Roglic's capability of pressing for a high GC finish. He crashed later that day but still fought back for a top 10 at Mur-de-Bretagne. His time-trialling ability and strength in the mountains makes him very much a dark horse.

The Dutchman survived a crash and two bike changes on Sunday but still finds himself favourably positioned in the standings. Mollema's problem is that he's not exactly the most attacking of riders and will struggle to reel in those already above him, and will have to watch those currently behind. And with his injuries – which include a stiff and painful back – he's admitted that he fears for the upcoming days.

The Dutchman was frustrated that his strength – and that of Sunweb team-mate Soren Kragh Andersen – was not better rewarded over the cobbles, where he looked very strong. He's good on the long climbs, on the descents, and against the clock, so Dumoulin should come into his own now. Last week's 20-second penalty (and time loss) will be behind him. The big test will be how his body reacts to the high stuff after his exertions in the Giro.

The experienced Dutchman has been quietly brilliant so far and could well prove to be the perfect foil for LottoNL-Jumbo team-mate Roglic. The team lost more time in the TTT than they would have desired but Kruijswijk has ridden an encouraging race. He can realistically dream of bettering his 15th place from 2014.

What tenacity and bravery and strength to dig deep and not throw in the towel after so much seemed to go against him on Sunday. The Frenchman never gave up, limiting his losses to just seven seconds after a litany of punctures and bike-changes.

If he struggled (on Tony Gallopin's bike) on the Mur-de-Bretagne, he should come into his own in the Alps. But the losses of Axel Domont and Alexis Vuillermoz will mean he'll need Mathias Frank to have a storming ride to give him the support he may well need in the face of Sky and Movistar's uphill armoury.

The way the Frenchman made light of the cobbles and limited his losses over the opening week – all in spite of Fortuneo-Samsic's travails in the TTT – makes a mockery of his claim not to be riding for GC. It's been a quiet start at his new Breton team but Barguil is now entering his favourite territory.

Unlike last year, when his time deficit allowed him to attack freely, Barguil will be in a very different position. It remains to be seen if he rides with the patience and conservatism of a genuine GC rider or if he voluntarily ships time in order to free up his options.

The Russian rider has suffered from having to share team resources with misfiring sprinter Marcel Kittel, and he's also had his fair share of bad luck in crashes and untimely mechanicals. He's not the most explosive of riders and the Katusha-Alpecin squad is looking extremely thin, so Zakarin will have it all to prove. A top ten at this stage would be a remarkable achievement, but probably an unlikely one.

Which Quintana will we see in the mountains? The one that won the polka dot jersey and twice pushed Froome all the way for yellow, or the one who pedalled squares last July after failing to impose himself in the uphill stages on the 2017 Giro.

The Colombian now faces a huge week and potentially a turning-point in his career. His Tour seemed ill-fated from the start following his unfortunate mechanical in the opening stage which cost him well over a minute. But he's battled away ever since. Now he needs to prove that he's Movistar's number one – otherwise his war won't just be against his rivals from other teams.

The likeable and laidback Colombian crashed on the cobbles but, unlike Bardet and Landa, was unable to ride back into contention – despite being paced by three EF Education First team-mates. Naturally conservative, Uran will struggle now to claw back time from those above him – and will be relying as much on others fading as he will be on himself shining. A successive podium looks a tall order.

A bittersweet opening week for the Irishman who put the UAE Emirates TTT performance behind him to win at Mur-de-Bretagne, only to crash heavily on Saturday and concede over a minute. The way he rode the cobbles in spite of his wounds was nothing short of heroic and, patched up after a rest day, Martin will surely have a big say on the outcome of the race. There's a lot for him to do, but he's a real fighter.

While perhaps extremely generous to include the American on any list of contenders, the fact that his BMC team-mate Richie Porte crashed out now elevates him in the team hierarchy. Now this could have been a turning point for Van Garderen had he not subsequently crashed so badly on the cobbles – dropping from third to thirteenth on GC as a result. A cruel double blow for BMC, even if their man GVA still holds onto the yellow jersey.

As for Porte, well that's a second successive year that the Australian has crashed out in stage 9 with the majority of the race's climbing still ahead. He's vowed to bounce back but should he win the Tour in 2019 he'll be the oldest man to do so since compatriot Cadel Evans in 2011. You sense that something's not right if the same thing keeps on happening.

The 105th edition of the Tour has really opened up following the withdrawal of one of the pre-race favourites in Richie Porte. If Porte mundanely crashing out in stage 9 is something we've seen before, Thomas riding so well and without incident is perhaps not.

The Welshman will certainly be targeting Van Avermaet's yellow jersey on Tuesday when the succession of climbs en route to La Grand Bornand should finally end the Belgian's run at the top. While Thomas seems in better condition now than ever before, he'll be mindful of his 2015 Tour when he was pushing for the podium before tumbling out of the top 10 with two stages remaining.

But should Thomas take yellow after stage 10, then Sky would have "a serious problem on their hands" according to Wiggins.

Of course, until we see how he rides in the first major summit finish of the race on Wednesday – and not only that, how Froome copes himself – it will be impossible to make any learned predictions. And if he's going strong now, many remain unconvinced.