How the Tour de France jerseys can still go down to the wire

Even before Primoz Roglic took over the race lead from Adam Yates in Laruns after the second stage in the Pyrenees we had got used to seeing the Slovenian in yellow. If the 30-year-old's national champion's jersey already made him look like the Tour champion elect, then so too did – and indeed still does – the get-up worn by his entire Jumbo-Visma team.

Sam Bennett has been in the green jersey since his maiden Tour stage win in Ile de Re after the first rest day. The Irishman has managed to consolidate his lead despite the best efforts of Peter Sagan and his Bora-Hansgrohe team, and he now sits on a comfortable 52-point cushion ahead of the stuttering Slovakian.

Richard Carapaz gave up his opportunity of a maiden Tour stage win in his first Tour by letting his Ineos teammate Michal Kwiatkowski take the spoils on Thursday. But in picking up points over all five summits in Stage 18, the Ecuadorian edged ahead in the polka dot jersey battle, which he now leads by two points over the Slovenian Tadej Pogacar.

Here's how the final three days of the Tour could still deliver some thrills and spills and see three different riders wearing the three major classification jerseys on the final podium in Paris.

While this is deemed a sprinters' stage, the rolling roads could play into the hands of a breakaway and provide the perfect backdrop for a GC ambush. If the latter is rather unlikely, then the former is a real likelihood.

Sagan and Bora could do all in to get the Slovakian into the break so he can pick up the 20pts at the intermediate sprint before starring in a reduced bunch finish at Champagnole. Now, given the way he's been sprinting, it's unlikely he'd win a sprint even with Bennett and some of the big guns absent, so let's say he finishes second – that would still be enough for 30pts.

All of a sudden, the Irishman's lead is down to just two points.

In the rolling roads of the final third of the stage, what if Jumbo-Visma are finally caught out. Perhaps it would take a crash or a mechanical or some kind of freak incident such as crosswinds on the exposed roads, but an echelon forms and Pogacar manages to steal back 20 seconds on his compatriot, slashing the gap to 37 seconds.

With just the one point available over the only categorised climb of the day, this point will probably go to a nostalgic Benoit Cosnefroy of Ag2R-La Mondiale.

The 36.2km race of truth starts with 15km of flat, then 10km of gradual uphill grind, a small descent, and then the final 5.9km climb to the finish – at an average gradient of 5.9%.

An ideal route for Roglic, you say – and you'd be right. But an even better route for his compatriot, Pogacar.

In the national time trial championships on an uphill 15.7km test back in June, Pogacar took the victory by nine seconds over Roglic. Saturday's Tour TT is just over double that distance, so let's give Pog a 20-second gap on his compatriot. Then, let's suppose the man in yellow botches an ill-advised attempt to change bikes from a TT steed to a road machine and the gaffe costs him a further 18 seconds.

Bosh! Pogacar goes into the lead by one slender second… And that's not all: by absolutely ripping it up the Plateau des Belles Filles, Pog clearly sets the best time on the climb to pocket the 10 KOM points. Carapaz, even though he can soft pedal all the way to the foot of the climb before giving it his best effort, can only muster the third best time on the 5.9km ascent, so he takes 6pts.

That puts Pogacar back into the polka dot lead by two points, with just the single Cat.4 climb on the final day… Job done.

Poor Richard Carapaz – he'll have to suffer the ignominy of wearing the polka dots into Paris just to keep the jersey clean before Pogacar's prize ceremony on the Champs-Elysees. And even the last remaining point over the Cote de Beulle won't mean a thing. (In any case, this will go to Pierre Rolland of B&B Hotels-Vital Concept).

The intermediate sprint will see Sam Bennett win ahead of Deceuninck-QuickStep teammate Michael Morkov, with Sagan settling for third place – a five-point swing that puts the Irishman three points to the good.

But in the final sprint – and after a ballsy (albeit ungentlemanly) attempt by Roglic to steal back that all-important second that separates him from the yellow jersey, Sagan will finish third behind winner Wout van Aert and Caleb Ewan, but Bennett, boxed in by the barriers, will only take fifth behind Alexander Kristoff, resulting in a four-point swing that sees the Slovakian win an eighth green jersey by just one second.

And so, after three weeks on the road, Pogacar wins yellow by one second and the polka dot jersey by two points (and the white jersey by over four minutes), while Sagan takes green by one point.

Of course, none of that will happen, but you never know...