Tour de France 2020 – Ineos Grenadiers v Team Jumbo-Visma

Ahead of the 107th edition of the Tour de France we put the Ineos Grenadiers and Jumbo-Visma teams of race favourites Egan Bernal and Primoz Roglic head to head to work out who stands a better chance of delivering their man to Paris in the yellow jersey.

In the black corner with the red upside-down V, in the new-look, slick kit of Ineos Grenadiers, Egan Bernal has a multi-national team behind him including three former Movistar riders, the reigning Giro d'Italia champion, a former road world champion, two Tour debutants, and just the one British rider.

In the (already) yellow corner with a black sash, Primoz Roglic has an exciting Jumbo-Visma team at his service, one that blends youth and erstwhile experience, and also includes a Giro d'Italia winner, one Tour debutant, a multiple time trial world champion, and a triple cyclo-cross world champion in the form of his life.

Leaving behind former winners Chris Froome and Geraint Thomas was a big call for manager David Brailsford, who embarks on a Tour without Welshman Thomas for the first time since 2012. Ineos enters the race not only with the fewest British riders it has ever had, but with only 27 Tour participations between eight riders (Richard Carapaz and Pavel Sivakov both making their debuts).

Jumbo-Visma, largely thanks to veterans Tony Martin and Robert Gesink, have collectively featured in five more Tours and have just the one debutant in Sepp Kuss. All eight of the Ineos team hail from different countries, a tally almost matched by Jumbo-Visma, who have two Dutchmen in their ranks.

Ineos looked to be back to their suffocating selves in La Route d'Occitanie, where Bernal was surrounded by a strong contingent on his way to victory. But subsequent races at the Tour de l'Ain and the Critérium du Dauphiné saw Jumbo-Visma come to the fore – riding tempo on the front in a way that out-Ineos-ed Ineos.

Such was their dominance in those preparatory races in France, that it sparked many commentators to suggest that a new chapter in cycling had begun, that Ineos had finally met their match in Jumbo-Visma, who were clearly emerging as the stronger team at just the right time ahead of the 2020 Tour.

Is that the case – are Jumbo-Visma now a better unit than the winners of seven of the previous eight Tours through four different riders? It's time to find out with a special head-to-head guide rating each rider according to the role they play in the team and their current form.

It's show time…

Egan Bernal (Colombia, 23) The defending champion is the all-round package – the most complete rider of his generation. As the younger and perhaps stronger climber, he edges the head-to-head battle with his big rival. 9.5

Andrey Amador (Costa Rica, 33) The former Movistar man was not expected to make the Tour cut but brings a wealth of experience as a mountain domestique with stage-winning potential as a fall-back. 7

Richard Carapaz (Ecuador, 27) Another surprise addition to the team following the non-selection of Froome and Thomas. The reigning Giro champion is a class act, but is he a team player? 7.5

Jonathan Castroviejo (Spain, 33) Dependable domestique who can set tempo on the early climbs, pull for ages and a day, and protect on the flat. Every team needs a Castroviejo, the third former Movistar rider in this team. 8

Michał Kwiatkowski (Poland, 30) Selfless all-rounder who had put his own ambitions aside to be a vital cog in Ineos' Grand Tour machine. The former world champion has helped three teammates to Tour glory. 8

Luke Rowe (Britain, 30) Barring last year's unsavoury spat with Tony Martin, the Welshman is integral in the team's success after riding five consecutive Tours. A strong presence both on the bike and in the bus. 8

Pavel Sivakov (Russia, 23) The young Tour debutant is a gamble worth taking. Impressive since the lockdown, he's earned his spot as both a helper and a viable back-up option for GC. This race could make him or break him. 7

Dylan van Baarle (Netherlands, 28) His steady, metronomic, calming influence will help keep control on uphill slopes and during the long, flat stages and undulating tests. Not flash, but effective. Dodgy moustache, mind. 7

Primož Rogliĉ (Slovenia, 30) The former ski-jumper is flying at the moment. Victory in the Vuelta confirmed his GC credentials and now Rogla is in the form of his life as he pushes for yellow. Slight injury niggle from Dauphiné. 9

George Bennett (New Zealand, 30) Surgery to remove a rib has alleviated his side-strain issues and given the Kiwi wings this year. A loyal climbing lieutenant, Bennett proved his one-day classics potential recently in Italy. 8

Amund Grøndahl Jansen (Norway, 26) The weak link? Brought in to replace the injured and highly experienced Steven Kruijswijk, Jansen makes his third consecutive Tour appearance as a strong rouleur for the flatter stages. 6

Tom Dumoulin (Netherlands, 29) On his day, one of the best GC riders in the business. A stage winner in all Grand Tours, the 2017 Giro champion is still on the comeback trail but is a domestique de luxe and solid Plan B option. 8

Robert Gesink (Netherlands, 34) Vastly experienced Dutchman will work tirelessly for the cause and seems to revel in no longer being part of the GC picture himself. This will be his ninth Tour after missing out in 2019 through injury. 7.5

Sepp Kuss (USA, 25) A lean whippet of a climber who has a big future ahead of him. Kuss will give his all but through gritted teeth, for he knows he's capable of winning big when given the chance. 8.5

Tony Martin (Germany, 35) Losing his head last year was out of character for a former TT specialist who has failed to finish four of his previous five Tours. On his day, the team patron, chief tempo-setter, and mountain pacer. 7.5

Wout van Aert (Belgium, 25) Flawless since the re-start – with wins at Strade Bianche and Milano-Sanremo – the Belgian livewire would be Peter Sagan's biggest rival for green were it not for team duties. 8.5

There you have it: a narrow victory by one slender point for Roglic's men in black and yellow. Of course, the margins are narrow and all it takes is a touch of wheels for things to fall back into the hands of the Ineos Grenadiers during the tough opening stages around Nice – should they take place (the Alpes-Maritimes region has been put on red alert owing to a spike in Covid-19 cases).

Truth be told, the Ineos Grenadiers are a better unit than they would have been had Thomas (7 points) and Froome (6 points) been selected in place of Carapaz and Amador. Indeed, the very absence of the British duo – when it comes to cohesion, clarity and form – may even give Ineos more than the extra point by which they trail Jumbo-Visma in these highly unscientific ratings.

But as things stand, it seems that the era of domination presided over by Sky and Ineos appears to be drawing to an end… The dynamic of the team has changed, and it remains to be seen if the winning mentality can be carried on through. Make no mistake – this is still a hugely impressive unit, but it is more inexperienced than previous Brailsford selections, and while there's no doubt as to who is leader, the riders surrounding that leader, at least individually, are not as strong as in past seasons.

Add to that the steady rise of Jumbo-Visma, who have added the Dutch dynamo Dumoulin to their ranks, left sprinter Dylan Groenewegen at home, and packed their team with accomplished climbers and rouleurs – and we really could see a different team dictating play over the roads of France for the next three weeks, perhaps three years.

Let's just hope the race goes the distance and we get to see a champion ride into Paris with the yellow jersey. And who's to say that man has to be Bernal or Roglic anyway? Thibaut Pinot and his Groupama-FDJ team look to be in good nick, too…Watch the Tour de France live on Eurosport from Saturday