Blazin' Saddles: Riders to watch and race predictions for La Vuelta 2018

Updated 24/08/2018 at 19:01 GMT

With the 73rd edition of La Vuelta getting under way on Saturday with a short 8km time trial, we look at the key riders targeting the red jersey, stage wins and the sprints. From those needing to save their season to those gearing up for the World Championships in Innsbruck…

Vincenzo Nibali (Bahrain-Merida) et Nairo Quintana (Movistar) lors du Tour de France

Image credit: Getty Images

Four past winners but no Chris Froome: the 2018 Vuelta promises to be one of the most open editions in recent years – even if that seems to be something we say every August. The typically mountainous route – which boasts 10 uphill finishes of varying difficulty – should offer fireworks from the outset.

But with Froome, Sky team-mate Geraint Thomas and Dutchman Tom Dumoulin – who have won the previous five Grand Tours between then – absent, who will step up and take the race by the scruff of its neck?

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The 178-strong field will feature riders from 30 different nationalities and will include five from the top 10 of the Giro and four from the top 10 of the Tour.

Let's take a closer look at the stand-out riders who are taking to the start on Saturday and weigh up their different ambitions before the time-old tradition of offering up a set of ramshackle predictions which will no doubt look rather foolish in three or so weeks' time.

Race favourites

Having crashed out of the Tour de France on Stage 9 for the second consecutive year, Australian Richie Porte (BMC) should be fresh and hungry after recovering from an injured collarbone. He may also be rather ill – a late bout of gastroenteritis keeping the 32-year-old from attending the team presentation on Thursday.

Richie Porte - Team BMC

Image credit: Getty Images

If Porte can get over the runs and stay on his bike, this could be his best shot at winning a Grand Tour. He's done all the preparation, and we know that he has the climbing ability; Porte just needs to catch a break and put together a decent run. A strong BMC team will help but the onus is on him.

Things haven't gone so well for the Colombian Nairo Quintana (Movistar) since winning the Vuelta two years ago and he needs a good result to get his career back on track after dropping to consecutive 12th and 10th finishes in the last two Tours. The 28-year-old's win on the Col du Portet in July will have restored some belief. If he can avoid early mishaps, Quintana will benefit from the absence of his old foe Froome.

Miguel Angel Superman López (Astana)

Image credit: Getty Images

If Quintana has lacked some of his old explosiveness in recent years, the same cannot be said of compatriot Miguel Angel Lopez (Astana) who will enter his fourth Grand Tour with strong ambitions after finishing third in the Giro. The 24-year-old has a strong team around him and looked to be hitting form in the recent Vuelta a Burgos.

After coming so close to winning the Giro in May, Simon Yates (Mitchelton-Scott) will have the belief that he has what it takes to win a three-week race. Three stage wins in the maglia rosa marked a coming of age for the 26-year-old, who enters the race with his brother Adam alongside him after finishing runner-up in the Tour de Pologne.

Season savers

Both Richie Porte and Nairo Quintana need a big win for contrasting reasons. When Porte left Sky for BMC three years ago it was to beat the rider he helped to so much glory – so it must have pained the Tasmanian to see Geraint Thomas, someone below him in the Sky pecking order, bring Froome's reign to an end last month.

Having promised so much, Porte will want to end his time at BMC with the major win that has so far eluded him. Next year he will join Trek-Segafredo where he will ride as top dog for another two years – but he won't have the same amount of support as he currently enjoys. It's now or perhaps never for Porte – not simply to save his season, but a career that has never delivered on its early promise.

Alejandro Valverde and Nairo Quintana, Movistar Team

Image credit: Getty Images

As for Quintana, he is fast becoming a Grand Tour anachronism in a new world of talented Colombian climbers. If a new kid on the block like Egan Bernal is now rated as more likely to win the Tour before Quintana, then the latter needs to redress the balance by taking a career second Vuelta win.

Other riders who need something from otherwise shoddy seasons are Italian national champion Fabio Aru (UAE Team Emirates) and the South African Louis Meintjes (Dimension Data). Both withdrew late on in the Giro after failing to get the results expected after their big-money moves in the off-season.

Meanwhile, Frenchman Thibaut Pinot (Groupama-FDJ) will hope to celebrate his new two-year contract with some stage wins a high finish after himself being forced out of the Giro following a late illness when he was sitting third on GC.

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Outsiders

Here the list is as long as the succession of climbs awaiting the riders over the next few weeks. In the absence of Froome and Thomas, Team Sky will pin their GC hopes on Spaniard David de la Cruz while giving free roles to both Sergio Henao and Michal Kwiatkowski (the latter being tipped, perhaps generously, as a potential GC rider for the future this week by David Brailsford).

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Over at Movistar, veteran Spaniard Alejandro Valverde and the Ecuadorian Richard Carapaz will be able deputies should Quintana falter – Carapaz's fourth place in the Giro, lest we forget, the best Grand Tour result so far this year for the Spanish team.

Ecuador's Richard Carapaz sprays champagne as he celebrates on the podium after winning the 208 km eighth stage of the 101th Giro d'Italia, Tour of Italy cycling race, on May 12, 2018 between Praia a Mare and Montevergine, Italy.

Image credit: Getty Images

Having come so close to a podium finish last year, Wilco Kelderman (Team Sunweb) will hope to continue his rise although will find himself fairly isolated given the calibre of his team. Another Dutchman Bauke Mollema (Trek Segafredo) claims he's not targeting GC but will be aware that his best GT result – fourth in 2011 – came in Spain.

Bora-Hansgrohe duo Emanuel Buchmann and Davide Formolo won't set many fires but they'll be looking to ghost into contention à la Zubeldia. By contrast, Russia's Ilnur Zakarin (Katusha-Alpecin) will be hard to miss because of his ungainly style and penchant for attacking. He made the podium last year and who knows what the new father could do if he rides like he did towards the end of the Tour.

If Adam Yates (Mitchelton-Scott) is very much the outsider after his struggles in the Tour then a better chance of impressing should come from the Colombian Rigoberto Uran (EF Education First-Drapac). Uran was riding solidly in the Tour before a crash on the cobbles took the wind out of his sails. With Michael Woods in support, Uran could be a factor – although he's yet to finish higher than 29th place in his three previous appearances.

George Bennett of New Zealand riding for Team Lotto NL-Jumbo rides during stage five of the 2017 Le Tour de France, a 160.5km stage from Vittel to La plance des belles filles on July 5, 2017 in La Planche, France.

Image credit: Getty Images

Finally, New Zealander George Bennett (LottoNL-Jumbo) has been quietly going about his business this year with top 10s in the Giro and the Tour de Pologne. With Steven Kruijswijk in support, the consistent 28-year-old could channel another team-mate, Primoz Roglic, and be a dark horse.

One eye on Innsbruck'ers

If the Tour de France really could have done with a competitive Vincenzo Nibali (Bahrain-Merida) in the final week, then the Italian's loss on Alpe d'Huez was the Vuelta's gain. Having fractured a vertebra in his crash in July, Milan-Sanremo winner Nibali claims he is riding the Vuelta not so much to go for the overall win but to condition himself for the World Championships.

Vincenzo Nibali (Getty Images)

Image credit: Getty Images

Flecha tips Vincenzo Nibali for Vuelta victory

The course in Innsbruck promises to be the most mountainous in recent memory so it's no surprise that many riders are using the Vuelta to prepare themselves – not least, the triple defending champion Peter Sagan (Bora-Hansgrohe). While there are enough flat and punchy sprint finishes to suit the Slovakian, Sagan will make the most of the climbing practice as he eyes an historic fourth rainbow jersey.

Sagan's Polish team-mate Rafal Majka also claims he's using the Vuelta to get in shape for Innsbruck – as do both Alejandro Valverde and Michal Kwiatkowski. Whether we should believe them is another matter – all three could put together a realistic tilt at the top 10.

Stage hunters

Conditioning oneself for the World Championships hardly excludes going for stage wins – which is why we should see the likes of Valverde, Kwiatkowski, Majka, Sagan and Nibali all get in the mix. But the start list is brimming with talent in this respect, not least with Lotto-Soudal pair Tiesj Benoot and Thomas de Gendt.

Other riders who you should expect to see off the front of the peloton are Dylan Teuns (BMC), Omar Fraile (Astana), Jetse Bol (Burgos-BH), Gianluca Brambilla (Trek-Segafredo), Enric Mas (Quick-Step Floors), Steve Cummings (Dimension Data), Luis Angel Mate (Cofidis), Dani Moreno (EF Education First) and Michael Albasini (Mitchelton-Scott).

Ireland's Daniel Martin (C) celebrates after he received a prize for being the Tour de France's most aggressive rider, after the 21st and last stage of the 105th edition of the Tour de France cycling race between Houilles and Paris Champs-Elysees, on July

Image credit: Getty Images

While supporting team leader Aru's bid for red, Ireland's Dan Martin (UAE Team Emirates) will also target stage wins over the general classification – but with a huge question mark above the Italian's capabilities, Martin may find himself in the frame for a top 10 finish.

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Newcomers

Team Sky are granting Grand Tour debuts to two of their outstanding young prospects in Britain's Tao Geoghegan Hart (below) and the Russian Pavel Sivakov – both of whom can make the same kind of impression at the Vuelta as Egan Bernal did on the Tour.

Tao Geoghegan Hart of Great Britain and Team Sky / Geraint Thomas of Great Britain and Team Sky Yellow Leader Jersey .

Image credit: Eurosport

In total there are 50 Grand Tour debutants in this year's Vuelta with only three teams – Movistar, BMC and EF Education First – not among those fielding a first-timer.

It's also a curious quirk of fortune that sees Basque rider Ion Izagirre (Bahrain Merida) make his first ever appearance in the Vuelta. The 29-year-old's previous seven Grand Tours have been in France and Italy, while brother Gorka has only ridden once (out of nine) in Spain as well.

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Brothers

Talking of Gorka and Ion Izagirre, they will be one of three sets of brothers on the race – the others being Simon and Adam Yates (Mitchelton-Scott) and Jose and Jesus Herrada (Cofidis). It's worth adding that Enric Mas (Quick-Step Floors) and Lluis Guillermo Mas (Caja Rural-Seguros RGA) are not related, nor are Oscar Rodriguez (Euskadi-Murias) and Cristian Rodriguez (Caja Rural).

Britain's rider of team Mitchelton-Scott Simon Yates celebrates the pink jersey of the overall leader on the podium after the 16th stage, a time trial between Trento and Rovereto, during the 101st Giro d'Italia, Tour of Italy cycling race, on May 22, 2018

Image credit: Getty Images

Sprinters

It's shaping up to be a battle between the World Champion, the European Champion and the Italian Champion in the sprints – with Peter Sagan, Matteo Trentin (Mitchelton-Scott) and Elia Viviani (Quick-Step Floors) clearly among the fastest of a small field. Throw in Nacer Bouhanni (Cofidis), Giocomo Nizzolo (Trek-Segafredo), Danny Van Poppel (LottoNL-Jumbo) and Max Walscheid (Team Sunweb) and we should still see some competitive sprints in between all the climbing.

Matteo Trentin - Men's Road Race cycling - 2018 European Championships Glasgow 2018 - Getty Images

Image credit: Getty Images

Last year's four triumphs for Trentin showed that while the Vuelta is often viewed as offering slim-pickings to the sprinters, the right riders can still clean up.

Former champions

Chris Froome may not be there, and Albert Contador may have retired along with the distant relic that is Chris Horner, but we will still have four former winners at the start line in Alejandro Valverde (2009), Vincenzo Nibali (2008), Fabio Aru (2015) and Nairo Quintana (2016).

Vuelta podium: Fabio Aru

Image credit: Eurosport

Giro-Vuelta doublers

Thirty-nine riders will be taking on the Vuelta having ridden the Giro earlier in the season, including five who finished in the top 10: Miguel Angel Lopez, Richard Carapaz, Pello Bilbao, George Bennett and Davide Formolo.

Tour-Vuelta doublers

Thirty riders will be tackling the Vuelta having finished the Tour less than a month ago, including four who finished in the top 10: Steven Kruijzwijk, Dan Martin, Ilnur Zakarin and Nairo Quintana.

VOTE: Who will win La Vuelta 2018?

Predicted top 10

1. Quintana, 2. Lopez, 3. Porte, 4. Yates, 5. Bennett, 6. Pinot, 7. Buchmann, 8. Carapaz, 9. Nibali, 10. Aru

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