La Vuelta 2020 - Primoz Roglic in cruise control as day of destiny looms
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Updated 06/11/2020 at 18:55 GMT
By sprinting to extend his overall lead ahead of the decisive stage of La Vuelta, Primoz Roglic has shown that he's the red hot favourite to hold off the challenges from Richard Carapaz and Hugh Carthy. Rather than keep his powder dry for the Alto de la Covatilla, the Slovenian took second place and six bonus seconds on Friday. Naturally, he wanted more.
Richard Carapaz of Ecuador and Team INEOS - Grenadiers Green Points Jersey / Primoz Roglic of Slovenia and Team Jumbo - Visma Red Leader Jersey / during the 75th Tour of Spain 2020, Stage 16 a 162km stage from Salamanca to Ciudad Rodrigo / la vuelta
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Time will tell whether a fifth stage win for Primoz Roglic – and an extra four bonus seconds on top of the six already pocketed – would have made any difference in the Slovenian's defence of his red jersey.
Crossing the line for second place behind Magnus Cort in Ciudad Rodrigo on Friday, Roglic bellowed a loud expletive which suggested that he was pretty miffed at missing out – the race jury's decision to relegate third-place Rui Costa, whose late deviation cost Roglic dear, confirming the infraction on the red jersey.
That Roglic was even contesting for a fifth stage win on the eve of the mountain-top showdown that will decide the destiny of la roja just goes to show what a fierce competitor the 30-year-old is.
"I always want to be as complete a rider as possible. I already said from the start of this Vuelta that I would try every day to do my best," Roglic said after extending his lead to 45 seconds over Richard Carapaz and 53 seconds over Hugh Carthy.
There is still a big day coming tomorrow, the decisive one. We just need to maintain focus and do our best and see what it means.
What it means right now is anyone's guess. But we'll soon have the answer.
Roglic's season has been spellbinding, the Slovenian bouncing back from that eleventh-hour Tour heartbreak to win a monument and put himself in a commanding position to win this Vuelta – and in some style.
His early stage wins in Spain suggested, perhaps, that the defending champion was eager to pick up what he could while the form was still in the legs. The indication was that he would perhaps fade as the race entered its second and third weeks, and the long autumnal shadows of November stretched across a peloton struggling to make its way to Madrid.
But he's kept it going and prolonged his panache from the Basque country through to till now – bouncing back from a slight wobble on the Angliru to win a fourth stage in Tuesday's time trial to take back the red jersey for a third, perhaps definitive, time.
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Primoz Roglic wins the Stage 13 time trial
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The fact that he did not, as some expected, kill off his rivals on the Mirador de Ezaro has at least introduced an element of doubt and made the final week of this Vuelta that more unpredictable. With two riders within touching distance of the race summit, this is far from a procession for Roglic. After all, we all know what happened in France...
To win this Vuelta, Roglic is going to have to keep things together for one last day – for 178km of constantly undulating terrain that features five categorised peaks (including one new climb ominously called La Garganta) ahead of the showpiece finale on the Alto de la Covatilla.
If Carapaz wins this Vuelta, it will be through stealth and consistency. The Ecuadorian has been thrown around a bit in his first year at Ineos; pulled from the Giro to race the Tour when only half fit, he gave up his only chance of a stage win to teammate Michal Kwiatkowski in that emotional Grenadiers one-two. In Spain, he has enjoyed two stints in red but has not yet won a stage and is just missing that little bit extra that saw him become the Giro champion in 2019.
If Carthy wins this Vuelta, it will be through being underestimated early on before pulling off a coming-of-age performance on the Angliru. It will be one of those victories that will seem in sync with the times, coming as it would a fortnight after his compatriot Tao Geoghegan Hart unexpectedly (yet wholly deservedly) lifted up the Giro's trophy in Milan.
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Hugh Carthy of The United Kingdom and Team EF Pro Cycling / Richard Carapaz of Ecuador and Team INEOS - Grenadiers / Enric Mas Nicolau of Spain and Movistar Team White Best Young Jersey on Angliru in Stage 12 of La Vuelta
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But if either of Carapaz or Carthy beat Roglic, they're going to have to do something special to wear down the Jumbo-Visma train. While Roglic's all-round armoury is second to none – the former ski jumper able to win on all terrains, in sprints and against the clock – it is perhaps the protection afforded to him by his team that is his best weapon. It's as they say: defence is often the best means of attack – and in the teammates defending his person, Roglic has enough men to do the damage.
A case in point being the Angliru, where Sepp Kuss could have saved the race for Roglic – even if the American could probably have matched Carthy for the win.
Where Roglic has only lost Dutch lieutenant Tom Dumoulin, Carapaz is down to just five Ineos teammates. And with Chris Froome and Ivan Sosa under-performing, he has just Andrey Amador and Cameron Wurf in the mountains – and it's hard to see eight of them still being there come La Covatilla.
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Carthy, likewise, only really has Michael Woods to rely on, with Tejay van Garderen very much invisible and Dani Martinez watching from home. Alberto Contador may think that the 26-year-old pedaller from Preston is the strongest rider in the race – but there's only so much an individual can do against a collective unit as strong as Jumbo-Visma.
It's worth noting here that Roglic's downfall in the Tour did not come on a regular road stage where he was surrounded by his teammates, but the one stage where he was forced to ride on his own. That just won't happen on Saturday.
The Movistar team of Enric Mas may have the numbers, but they proved once again on Friday that they are short of tactical acumen and struggle to assert their authority on the race. There is nothing to suggest that Roglic won't arrive at the foot of the final climb of the Vuelta with at least Robert Gesink, George Bennett, Jonas Vingegaard and Sepp Kuss in place.
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Primoz Roglic surrounded by his Jumbo-Visma teammates during stage 14 of La Vuelta 2020
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It may not be enough for him to win a fifth stage - I expect Carapaz will finally end his drought - but it should be enough to secure a second Vuelta crown.
And when Roglic wins this Vuelta, as I have no doubt that he will, it will be just deserts for a rider who has been, give or take (La Planche des Belle Filles being that solitary take), at the peak of his powers since August.
So while Friday's "F***!" as he crossed the line could be read as a nervous leader annoyed about missing out on the extra four seconds he feels he may need to keep his red jersey safe, it was more likely to be the curse of an insatiable rider angry at missing out on the fifth win of a race he has lit up from start to finish.
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