La Vuelta 2020: The three days that will decide the Vuelta - final stages analysed

ByNiamh Lewis

Updated 05/11/2020 at 16:28 GMT

What stands between Primoz Roglic, Richard Carapaz and Hugh Carthy and La Vuelta glory? With Stage 18 a processional run to the finish, the Spanish Grand Tour will be decided by the results on Friday and Saturday. All three contenders are still very much in it, but can Britain's Carthy or Ineos's Carapaz find enough to dethrone Roglic?

There were no changes to the general classification in Stages 14 and 15, meaning Jumbo-Visma’s Primoz Roglic holds on to the red leader’s jersey by just 39 seconds.

Ineos Grenadiers leader Richard Carapaz and EF Pro Cycling’s Hugh Carthy remain very much in contention.

GC Standings

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• 1. Primož Roglič (Slo) Jumbo-Visma, 60H 19' 41''
• 2. Richard Carapaz (Ecu) Ineos Grenadiers, at 39s
• 3. Hugh Carthy (GBr) EF Pro Cycling, at 47s

If the GC battle continues past the hilly profile of Stage 16 then the race will go down to the wire for the third and final Grand Tour of the year on the brutal mountains of Stage 17 which features a "special category" summit finish to a ski resort.

Friday 6 November: Stage 16, Etapa Salamanca - Ciudad Rodrigo

Edging closer towards Madrid, it’s a shorter 160km stage, but shorter doesn’t mean easier. Starting at around 800m up from sea level, the day is undulating for the first 50km before a twisty descent roughly spanning 10km.

With more hairpins and windy roads to come, the first climb goes up the Puerto El Portillo, a category 2 with a number of belting hairpins. After that it’s straight down and back up the category 1 El Robledo just 30km from the finish. The final climb spans 11km with a maximum gradient of 12%.

For those who have made it to the front after 130km by then, it could prove to be a cruel test if the weather doesn’t play ball, but mostly it will be a day for the GC contenders to concentrate, limit any potential damage and make it through another day maintaining their close gaps before the mountains.

Saturday 7 November: Stage 17, Etapa Sequeros - Alto de La Covatilla

Mountains. But not only that, the route has more twists and turns than the year 2020 has thrown up so far.

Anyone who sat back on Stage 16 won’t have anywhere to hide today. It’s a 178.2km day with a mixture of categorised climbs including a “special category” summit finish which looks so hard it it’s numerical rating must be a -2.

The Alto de la Covatilla summit finish in the ski resort is a 10km slog with an average gradient of 7%, and almost 2,000m above sea level. Dan Martin won here on Stage 9 of the 2011 Vuelta.

If the race hasn’t been decided before this point, then GC contenders will have to empty whatever their legs have left and more at these mountain passes.

The category 1 Puerto del Portillo de las Batuecas starts just 39km into the stage and goes on up some more belting hairpins for 10km with a 7% maximum gradient. The smooth decent flows over the three category 3s until the remaining category 2 starts at 140km, and then the real struggle to the ski resort begins.

‘A podium is on the cards and he could win it’ – Wiggins backs Carthy to challenge for Vuelta

Sunday 8 November: Stage 18, Etapa Hipódromo de La Zarzuela – Madrid

By now La Roja should have been decided. All that’s left is a flat 124.2km final jaunt around Madrid which is likely to be mostly processional, with a slow pace estimated by organisers, but it will serve up a cracking sprint finish for one last hurrah.

Since Primoz Roglic, Richard Carapaz and Hugh Carthy are all climbers -- with Carapaz probably favouring the longer gradual, Roglic the tricky and sharp, and Carthy more than experienced on the finest bergs of Lancashire (which are short and sharp, always feature T-junctions at the bottom of descents and sweeping corners naturally come with hidden by standing folks of escapee sheep).

If mechanical fortune favours the trio, Stages 15-17’s hills and mountains could rely once again on team tactics and lead-out men to make all the difference.

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