Opinion: Why Primoz Roglic may have missed his chance to take control of La Vuelta from Remco Evenepoel

Reports that Remco Evenepoel cracked over the weekend were grossly exaggerated. The total time lost to Primoz Roglic over the two stages may add up to over than a minute, but that was well within the margin of the comfortable, considering his lead going into the two most difficult stages of the 21 was nudging three.

Roglic needed more. At this point, with six stages remaining, it’s hard to see where the Slovenian will find what he needs to claim his fourth Vuelta in a row.

Let’s consider what lies in store next week:

There will be no time taken on Tuesday. The stage that starts in Sanlucar de Barrameda and finishes just outside Seville, is as close to pan-flat as we’ve had since the race started in the Netherlands.

Wednesday offers up an afternoon of cruelly uncategorised lumps and bumps across the south-western Badajoz province, culminating in a category 2 climb up to Monasterio de Tentudia, near Calera de León.

Though another interesting one that is new to the Vuelta, from what we know of it it’s hard to imagine Roglic successfully isolating Evenepoel there, let alone taking a meaningful amount of time. It might average 5% from bottom to top, but that mean actually makes it sound harder, not easier than it is. Never more than 12%, with more than a kilometre of downhill, it’s hard to think what Roglic could do to push a rider of Remco’s engine into the amber, let alone red.

A sprint finish at the end could enable him to prise open a gap, but we’re talking a second or two, at best. Nothing like enough.

More, maybe, could come on the next 'mountains' classified stage, on Thursday. It’s been nearly 15 years since the Vuelta (or any race) came to the Piornal (which may explain why the race is tackling it by three different routes on the same day). On the last occasion, on a similarly set-up stage, Danilo di Luca won the day for Liquigas. Di Luca was a true climber, on whose palmares was adorned a Giro d’Italia title and stage wins, as well as victories in Il Lombardia, Fleche Wallonne, Pais Vasco and Liege-Bastogne-Liege.

That might indicate a stage on which Roglic could claw back a sizable chunk of time. Except you know who the reigning champion of LBL is? That’s right, Remco Evenepoel.

None of the ascents of the Piornal are especially steep. Arguably its slopes are better suited to a chugger like Evenepoel than a rider like Primoz, with a hard kick on him. Much less Roglic reducing his deficit here, a betting person would be advised to put a few quid on Evenepoel extending his lead.

What about Friday? Other than the Madrid procession and the two time trials, this is the shortest, punchiest stage of the whole Vuelta. At 138km start to finish, stage 19 has a late start and likely an early finish and only one climb which is tackled twice. The Pielago mountain pass is 9.3km long and the gradient is easily shallow enough to allow a rider to defend his position in the wheels. The downs arguably offer more opportunities than the ups. With Roglic’s record, would you risk it, though?

That leaves just Saturday’s stage 20, the last official mountains stage and (what will have felt like) the 57th summit finish in three weeks. The profile has potential. It looks like the proverbial shark’s teeth in a way that only Vuelta sideshots can.

It may come down to the final ascent of the Puerto de Navercerrada. Roglic was second on a very similar stage to this one in 2018, which included the same climb. On that occasion, however, he was defending a lead, rather than on the attack, and the gaps weren’t huge, which they may be this time.

At this point in proceedings it feels like victory in the Vuelta is out of Roglic’s hands in a way it was not this morning, or even late this afternoon. A trick was missed on the steep early slopes of the interminable Alto Hoya de la Mora. His team having done the grunt work, Roglic looked strong, arguably as strong as ever. Had he attacked then, ahead of the terrain more favourable to Evenepoel, he could have forced the Belgian into the red. More than a crack he could have triggered an implosion.

Why he didn’t is known only to him. One possibility is that he was as worried about what he had to lose - second place - as he was invested in potential gains. Certainly he waited until the point when he knew his losses to Enric Mas were tolerable, and the point in the stage where he would not blow himself up before making his move. For a meagre 15 seconds he might as well not have bothered.

He now finds himself where he is reliant on Evenepoel being unable to last the full three weeks. That remains a distinct possibility. How many times before have we seen riders falter in their first proper three-week campaign?

Roglic, however, has a history of fading towards the end of Grand Tours himself, and that could yet be his destiny in this race. Had he been bolder, more confident, on Sierra Nevada he could be going into the rest day in full control of the race, or close to it.

He is not, and looking at the six stages left, it’s hard to see where he might claim it.