Pep Guardiola v Zinedine Zidane and the battle to be Europe’s finest

It’s the duel on the touchline between Pep Guardiola and Zinedine Zidane that will likely settle the contest at the Etihad. The former is fighting to get back to the top of Europe while doubts persist about the latter despite his immaculate record in the competition.

After all, there’s a new chosen one in Europe: a German with a devastating smile and a magic word, "gegenpressing". Jurgen Klopp is now cast in the eternal discussion about the best coach in the world, his domestic success with Liverpool looking set to give him the crown indefinitely.

But the ruthless Diego Simeone decided otherwise by eliminating the Reds in the Champions League last 16, leaving the field open for Zidane and Guardiola to move closer to that symbolic throne.

Why is this match so decisive for Guardiola? Because doubts about his ability to win the Champions League without Lionel Messi are becoming recurrent. Since leaving Barcelona in 2012 to spread his philosophy across Europe, the Catalan has never fared better than the semi-finals (2014, 2015 and 2016 with Bayern). Worse, since joining City, he has never made it past the quarter-finals. To be eliminated again in the last 16, as in 2017 when he arrived at City, would be a gigantic step back.

In fact, his power at Manchester City could be called into question. Because building a Guardiola-esque squad has a price and the Citizens have done everything to please Guardiola. But a domestic season without a league title coupled with an early elimination in the Champions League would leave him walking a tightrope.

The stat to remember: 47%, City’s possession at the Bernabeu in the first period of the first leg. Guardiola said he had adapted to Real. Was this the end of dogmatism and a stride towards realism?

Key man: Kevin De Bruyne. He is the brain of this City team. Shaped by Guardiola, the Belgian has the opportunity to promote himself into the other eternal discussion: that of the best player in the world. Getting the scalp of Zidane’s Real would be quite a line on an already bulging CV.

War of words (Guardiola): "Quite often managers plan for games but in the end the game speaks for itself. You can set up a certain way but the way the game develops dictates how you will play. We want to impose our own style, whether we are defending or playing on the counter or Madrid are countering. We want to take the game to certain areas of the field where we can hurt Madrid and show the qualities of our players. I hope we can prove Courtois is in good form by giving him a very busy evening but we also know there may be periods where we have to defend. The situation on the night will determine things."

Why is this match so decisive for Zidane? Normally, a last 16 tie would mean very little to him. Zidane remains a statistical anomaly: three tournaments as manager, three trophies. Inevitably, the pressure on his shoulders is less than that felt across the dugout. But to eliminate Guardiola, the man who has caused Real so much suffering in the past, would further bolster his reputation in Madrid.

With Zidane, another debate rages despite his success: is he really an outstanding tactician or an exceptional manager? Qualification on Friday would surely finally stop the questions around his true contribution to Real.

The stat to remember: 2/6, Zidane's wins as manager against English clubs. It is imperative he rebalances that.

Key man: Karim Benzema. Who else? Real must score at least twice at the Etihad if they are to hope for a miracle. A pivotal part of the Liga coronation, Benzema now has his usual trophy to chase. In the Champions League, despite some crazy numbers (64 goals) and striking moments such as his winner in the tightrope match against Atletico or his instinctive ‘fox’ goal against Liverpool, he still lacks that exceptional individual display to put himself even deeper into the club’s history. This match looks the perfect occasion.

War of words (Zidane): "I don't know what's going to happen. All I can tell you is that it's going to be a good game of football between two very good sides and that's the most important thing. We're prepared, we know the situation we're in because we're well aware of how the first leg finished and we're treating this like a final, because there are four still to come if want to go all the way".