From massive gamble to ending 36 years of hurt - Canada's astonishing rise to qualify for Qatar 2022

Four years ago during CONCACAF qualifying for the 2018 World Cup, Canada failed to reach the final stage of qualifying.

CONCACAF qualifying is traditionally broken up into different stages, with the bigger nations (think Mexico, USA and Costa Rica) joining in the final stage. Medium sized nations, such as Guatemala, El Salvador and Jamaica go in at the third round, out of five total.

The final stage is historically known as the Hexagonal, or Hex. With the unique travel structures based in the region, those who know understand its complexities and difficulties. Whilst to most outsiders it’s normally just dismissed.

This year’s edition saw a re-vamp to eight teams. An Octagonal if you will. And it will almost certainly be topped by Canada. To put that into perspective, four years ago Canada failed to reach the final stage. They finished third in their group (which is the format of the penultimate round of qualifying), behind Mexico and Honduras.

It was a similar story in 2014, where they were behind Honduras yet again (a brutal 8-1 loss in the process), and this time Panama. Same in 2010, where they actually finished bottom of their penultimate stage group, failing to win a single game in a group containing Mexico, Jamaica and yes, you guessed it, Honduras. 2006? Bottom. 2002? Third in the group. You have to go all the way back to qualifying for France 1998 for the last time Canada reached the Hexagonal. And even then they finished bottom.

Not now. Right now no team on the continent is playing like Canada. They don’t have the same amount of talent as the US, or the prestige of Mexico, but they are the best without a doubt.

After the failure four years ago the Canadian Football Association knew they had to get the managerial decision right. They had only hired Octavio Zambrano in March 2017 but felt in January 2018 they had to move on. In what was a bit of a surprise they turned to former Northumbria University lecturer John Herdman. Best known for his work with the Canadian women’s team, winning back to back bronze medals at the 2012 and 2016 Olympics. Not only did Canada appoint Herdman head of the men’s team, he took over the entire operation, becoming responsible for all age groups from U14 upwards as the new men’s national director.

The move was not without controversy. Many questioned Herdman’s decision to leave what was one of the most promising women’s teams in the world for a men’s team that had next to no relevancy on the global stage. In the announcement tweet from the men’s Twitter account legendary Canadian forward Christine Sinclair replied “speechless right now…” while midfielder Diana Matheson said she was “just so sad” despite wishing Herdman the best.

You’d be hard pressed to find anyone who didn’t think this was at best a sideways move, and realistically a step backwards for Herdman. But Herdman had always been open about his desire to coach in the men’s game and expertly leveraged his fine work with the women’s team, plus reported interest from the England women’s team and some professional men’s clubs in North America, to take over. John Molinaro, one of Canadian football’s leading writers, said the move “will go down as one of the biggest gambles in the history of soccer in this country”, writing on Sportsnet.

Four years later, that gamble has more than paid off.

In front of a raucous crowd in Toronto, a testament to the thriving football culture in the country, Canada ran riot against Jamaica, securing their place in Qatar 2022. Canada’s best player, Alphonso Davies, gave an emotional live reaction as he streamed him watching the match on Twitter.

Davies has missed every match of 2022 so far due to various injuries. The Bayern Munich superstar caught Covid-19 and then subsequent tests after his recovery revealed heart concerns. He has become one of the fans, anxiously watching his team-mates in action as they reeled off consecutive 2-0 wins against Honduras, the US and El Salvador in the first international break of the year. The 1-0 loss against Costa Rica last week put some temporary cats amongst the pigeons but the Jamaica result confirmed what has looked likely for some time.

Herdman has built a team and a squad that is united on and off the pitch. Everyone is equal and everyone is expected to do their fair share of the work. It is a team that has united with the fans, that has bonded in a way that no previous team has managed to do so. Herdman’s side are difficult to break down (their six goals conceded are the lowest in the Octagonal) but are lethal on the counter (their 23 goals scored is better than anyone). It is fundamentally a team, not a collection of individuals as their rivals the US can often look like. Of course there are stars (Lille’s Jonathan David and Davies the two highlights) but it’s not full of names most people would recognise out of North America. Who would European fans recognise in the XI that beat Jamaica? Junior Hoilett for sure. Maybe Cyle Larin or Doneil Henry? That’s probably it. On the bench Liam Miller, Ike Ugbo and Atiba Hutchinson might be recognised. But that’s it.

Speaking of some of those players. This is a team that is very much for everything, a team that represents the multi-culturalism within Canada. Davies was born in Buduburam, Ghana, David was born In Brooklyn. Ugbo and Sam Adekugbe are from Lewisham and London respectively. New call-up Ismael Kone was born in the Ivory Coast, the list goes on.

“I’m an immigrant here to Canada,” Herdman said after the win over America.

“This is what we’re starting to provoke across the world when these dual-passport players are looking at where they pledge their international futures,” Herdman added. “All of this is important to our success.”

Goalkeeper Milan Borjan, a cult hero with supporters who was born in former Yugoslavia and came to Canada at the age of 13, echoed his manager’s statement.

“We’re one country, Borjan said after the win. “Canada is a multicultural country. We fight for what’s given to us. Canada gave us peace, better schools, a better life… better everything. This is the just the way for us to return it to Canada.”

From targeting players with two passports to picking colder weather venues for key qualifying matches, Herdman has had a clear plan from the word go. And he has built this team for long-term success as well. Of the current 23-man squad only four are aged over 30. Borjan at 34, who might have one last dance in him in four years' time, veteran defender Steven Vitoria is 35 and Hoillett is 31. Then there’s Hutchinson, a behemoth of Canadian football at the age of 39 with 94 caps. He will almost certainly call it a day after Qatar.

But this team is ready to make some noise both in eight months' time and then again in four years when Canada will host the World Cup as part of a triple-bid with the US and Mexico. In four years' time if America can’t find a way to consistently harness their golden generation the host team no-one will want to face will undoubtedly be Canada. That is the result of hard work and clever planning. They are going to be brilliant to watch in the winter.