On reflection: Leicester must look to Montpellier for inspiration to sustain title tilt

After Riyad Mahrez missed his second penalty in as many weeks, leaving Leicester with one win in their last five games, it was hard to escape the feeling that the wheels may be coming off their unlikely title challenge. Jamie Vardy has not scored for six games, Mahrez for five, while had he scored those two spot-kicks against Bournemouth (final score 0-0) and Aston Villa (1-1), the Foxes could have been four points clear of joint-leaders Arsenal.

We will know more early next month, when Leicester face Liverpool (home) and then Manchester City and Arsenal (both away) in the space of two weeks.

Recent Premier League history suggests that Leicester will fall away: look at the case of Leeds United in 1999-2000, when a side that included Michael Bridges, Harry Kewell, Lee Bowyer and Jason Wilcox was one point clear at the top after 22 games. They finished in third, 22 points behind eventual champions Manchester United.

Newcastle were in a similar position in 2001-02. That side contained Gary Speed, Craig Bellamy, Alan Shearer, Laurent Robert and Nobby Solano; after 22 games, they were joint-top with United, with an identical record, and two points ahead of Arsenal. Newcastle ended up in fourth, 16 points behind winners Arsenal.

Charlton Athletic, with Jason Euell, Shaun Bartlett and Paolo di Canio, were fourth after 22 games in 2003-04. They won two of their last ten and finished seventh. Bolton, with Kevin Davies, Kevin Nolan and Nicolas Anelka (and El-Hadji Diouf) banging in the goals, were third after 21 games in 2006-07: they ended up seventh after winning just four of their last 16 games.

And then there’s Aston Villa, fourth in 2008-09, and just three points behind United and Liverpool after 22 games. That side had Gareth Barry, Ashley Young, James Milner, Nigel Reo-Coker and John Carew; they dropped to sixth, 28 points back. Coach Martin O’Neill resigned after a third-straight sixth-place finish, frustrated to have hit a glass ceiling and not be able to push into the top four.

Leicester boss Claudio Ranieri has done that this season though. One reason given is the access to quality players for smaller teams that has allowed the likes of Dmitri Payet and Yohan Cabaye to join West Ham and Crystal Palace respectively. Jose Mourinho said both could play for top-four teams but because the mid-table Premier League sides can afford bigger wages now, the gap between top and middle is narrower. That may be true, but Leicester did not splurge in the summer and you couldn’t call any of their signings eye-openers like Cabaye.

And yet France is exactly the place where Ranieri should direct his players for an example of a success that no-one said was possible. In Ligue 1 in 2010-11, Montpellier were sixth after 25 rounds and seven points off a Champions League spot. They tanked, winning two of their last 13 games and ended up down in 14th place. “We had the chance to finish in the top eight so I was really pissed off that we didn't, and the players know that,” said Montpellier’s long-serving and outspoken president Louis Nicollin.

The memory of that slump sustained them the following season, in 2011-12. Montpellier were three points behind PSG and in second place after 22 games, but the expected desertion of form never happened. In fact, they kept on winning, and specialised in late goals. Olivier Giroud was their main striker and the team scored late winners against Nice (Giroud, 90), Bordeaux (Utaka, 82), Saint-Etienne (Giroud, 89) and Lille (Karim Ait-Fana, 90).

That Saint-Etienne strike came in round 29, and pushed Montpellier ahead of big spending PSG. Even then, expectations were tempered. “We are not getting too excited as we remember what happened last season,” said Giroud at the time. “We have to just focus on each game and see where that takes us.”

“There’s no chance we’ll be champions!” Nicollin had told L’Equipe before Christmas. “If I were PSG, Lille, or Lyon and beaten by Montpellier, I’d stab myself in the arse with a sausage!”

Montpellier played a 4-2-3-1 system and their pass completion was the second best in Ligue 1. They hit the most successful crosses and had the best goals to shots ratio. They also picked up more points than anyone else from losing positions. Montpellier had hardly changed the team from the previous season, and did not suffer from egomania or the petty squabbles that afflicted title favourites Paris Saint-Germain. Their “Mahrez” was Belhanda, of whom Nicollin said “has two Nasris and three Ben Arfas in each leg”.

In fact, Montpellier never left top spot after the Saint-Etienne win. When they clinched the title, beating Auxerre 2-1 on the final day, Nicollin had his head shaved and painted in the club colours of white, blue and orange. Ranieri may not paint his head blue and white but Giroud, who scored 21 league goals in that miraculous Montpellier season, knows all too well that an impossible dream can actually become a reality.