Get ready for England's biggest game since the Euros final… vs. Italy again in Nations League - The Warm-Up

England play Italy this evening. And while every England game is a cause for extreme hype and extreme scrutiny, this is probably the most important England game since… well, since the last time they played Italy. And that was an actual final.

Caught between the rock of that 4-0 defeat to Hungary last June, and the hard place of the upcoming World Cup, this game, and Monday's against Germany, are carrying a lot of weight. England need wins to get off the bottom of Nations League Group A3, but more than that they need performances. With less than two months until they kick off against Iran, England are a mass of question marks.

Luckily for his nation, Gareth Southgate knows what went wrong against Hungary. Unluckily for everybody, he's not telling. Talking to the press before tonight's game, he told them: “I feel I compromised certain decisions and you don’t win if you compromise. It was good for me to sharpen that focus again. I’ve got to be completely ruthless and create an environment for the players to excel and be at the level they have been.”

Oooh, what decisions, Gareth? What decisions? "They’re internal things that we’re working on as a team. So there’s no need for that to be public." Then he didn't add, "I'm not going to be the person I'm expected to be anymore," and he didn't walk out of the press conference as the walls collapsed around him.

What a tease. Can he mean something as simple as 'playing a back four' or 'picking Conor Gallagher'? Or is he suggesting, perhaps, that England were guilty of taking that Hungary game a little lightly. Nothing specific about the tactics or personnel, but more a broad question of preparation and attitude. Underinflating the metaphorical unicorn. The thought also occurs that he may just have been trying to take a little pressure off his players: It was me! It was my fault! No, I will not be going to details at this time.

But it's a delicate moment for Southgateball. Harry Maguire is out of the Manchester United first team, and United don't seem to be missing him. Kalvin Phillips is heading for the operating table, missing these games and possibly the tournament. And England have somehow ended up with just two players that score with any regularity, Harry Kane and Raheem Sterling.

Southgate has other central defenders, more than seems reasonable… but he trusts Maguire. He has other midfielders, and in Jude Bellingham the early knockings of a generational talent… but he craves that second layer of security. And he has attacking options of glorious diversity and thrilling capacity… but has so far been wildly reluctant to try to overwhelm the opposition from the front. In short, just at this very delicate moment in which compromise is to be rejected, his capacity to go more Southgate seems limited.

There's also the vexed question of expectation. The usual dynamic going into a major tournament is that half the country gets carried away and decides England only need to turn up to beat all these foreigners - how many of these French lads would even get in Our Team? - while the other half frets and broods over the fact that England are at both tactically naive and high as anything on their own fumes.

But making the semi-finals of the last World Cup, and then making the Euros final, leading it, and only losing it on penalties: that collapses both sides of the dynamic. It makes sense to talk about England winning the thing, because what else should they reasonably be going for? Southgate has left himself exactly one target, and it's the very small gold one right in the middle. England may not expect, exactly, but England has every right to anticipate.

If England were coasting into this game with Nations League wins under their belt, then perhaps this week could be devoted to the search for Plans B, C and D. Perhaps we could all enjoy another attempt at cracking the Trent Alexander-Arnold riddle: hey, what if he had Ivan Toney or Tammy Abraham to aim at? But there are first principles to be rediscovered, compromises to be uncompromised. Get ready for Maguire, for right-backs, for as many defensive midfielders as Southgate can find in his squad. Pre-World Cup vibe check: [squeaking noises].

Onto Wales we go, and we're delighted to report that they were the better team against Belgium, pressing with confidence and offering more in attack. For, ooh, about ten minutes. Then Kevin De Bruyne scored and the natural order of things reasserted itself.

But Kieffer Moore was very good, throwing in a backheel every now and then to try and convince the referee that not everything a tall person does is a foul. It worked, and he was able to score a big header early in the second half without being whistled on principle. Spirit, togetherness, tactics… none of these are going to matter to Wales as much as Moore's ability to persuade refs to just let him be big.

Sure, you could tot up the negatives. Unnecessary bookings. Worrying defensive misalignment. Wayne Hennessey going for the first goal like a fainting redwood. And, of course, they lost the actual game and remain rooted to the bottom of Nations League Group A4. But the performances haven't been as bad as the results and Wales can stay up with a win against Poland. Pre-World Cup vibe check: unclear.

As for Belgium, It seems that De Bruyne is the best player in the world when given time and space to enjoy himself, so that's nice. They were the better team overall against Wales, which is preferable, and they won the game, which is also important.

And yet, and yet, and yet. Your mileage may vary, but when the Warm-Up watches Belgium, we tend to nitpick. We always end up looking for reasons why they won't win anything. This if, of course, highly unfair, born perhaps from a lingering sense that Belgium are somehow better than they really should be. We don't do this with France.

So perhaps their slump in the second half says nothing about anything. They won! Perhaps Roberto Martinez's late sending off, for delaying a Welsh throw-in, is of no significance at all. Winning is important. Or perhaps this all speaks to a fundamental vulnerability at the heart of the project, one that will be exploited by the Proper Good Teams in Qatar. Pre-World Cup vibe check: also unclear.

Did we say that De Bruyne was the best player in the world? How silly of us. Obviously we meant Christian Eriksen. Ping.

We'd like to formally apologise for overlooking Proper Ronaldo's birthday yesterday. It was an appalling error on our part, and rest assured we will be carrying out a swift investigation, then imposing a harsh punishment. So, a day late, happy birthday to Mr Phenomenon, and happy Every Goal He Scored For Barcelona to the rest of us. Pound for pound, this is probably the best goal compilation it's possible to make.

You like to know what formation your favourite team is playing? Move on, says Karen Carney in the Guardian. "All systems are hybrids and dynamic nowadays and defining them in terms of traditional formations is too simplistic. How a team lines up for kick-off does not reflect what is going to happen for the next 90 minutes." That probably goes double now that everyone's trying fancy set plays from kick-off.

Instead of being bound by formations, we need to embrace fluidity. Full backs are midfielders now. Midfielders are defenders. Up is down, left is right, and Kevin De Bruyne is an extremely dangerous gas that expands to fill all available space. "Top-level football is becoming like the NFL, where coaches have specific plans for different phases of play. Players will know where they need to be when their team are in possession in order to get the ball to the most effective players at the business end of the pitch."

It's a really interesting point that rings true, and you only have to watch Alexander-Arnold or Joao Cancelo for five minutes to realise that whatever it says on the teamsheet, these are playmakers. But the consequences for football content might be severe. Perhaps we'll have to move onto presenting formation maps for those different phases: here's how we think Liverpool will attack, here's how we think they'll defend. There's the space for some fancy transition graphics there too. Get on it, graphics people. Next stop, the future.

While Italy vs. England may feel like the headliner tonight, the nature of Southgateball and the general state of ambient nervousness makes us suspect that Germany vs. Hungary will be the more entertaining game. Maybe multi-screen it? It's what Friday nights were made for.