What the stats say: Why clinical Harry Kane is already on Cristiano Ronaldo's level as a finisher
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Updated 24/06/2018 at 20:33 GMT
After Harry Kane invited comparisons between himself and Cristiano Ronaldo, we asked Opta to crunch the data...
Harry Kane and Cristiano Ronaldo
Image credit: Eurosport
England have tried to perfect the art of managing expectations when it comes to the World Cup, but on the eve of their opening game against Tunisia there was no disguising Harry Kane’s ambition.
“I've got a lot of scoring trophies in my career,” he told the world’s media.
I'd like to be sitting here with a big gold one in a few weeks. Ronaldo has put me under a bit of pressure. Hopefully I will score a hat-trick and we'll be level. I can't wait to get out there and show the world what I've got.
It was a comment which raised a few eyebrows. Inviting comparisons with a player who had just set the tournament alight with a majestic hat-trick against Spain was a bold move. But Kane backed it up with England’s two goals in a 2-1 win against Tunisia, and after the match a certain Madeiran was on his mind again. I had to prove people wrong throughout my career and I love proving to myself I can do it,” said Kane. Ronaldo is the best in the world, up there with Messi, but the challenge is there to be with them.”
A hat-trick against Panama in England’s second group game took Kane's tally up to five, making him the leading scorer in the tournament and proving that his confidence wasn’t misplaced. But it’s not the first time that Kane has made those who laugh at his claims look a bit silly. And his class becomes increasingly clear as you delve into the statistics of his career.
As for the comparisons with a certain Portuguese star… Is Ronaldo really that much better than Kane? And is the England striker showing with his goalscoring record that he could truly reach Ronaldo’s level? Is he there already, in fact?
A more clinical finisher?
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Jamie Vardy and Harry Kane of England celebrate following the 2018 FIFA World Cup Russia group G match between Tunisia and England at Volgograd Arena on June 18, 2018 in Volgograd, Russia.
Image credit: Getty Images
With the use of Opta’s enhanced metrics, we can look at how Ronaldo and Kane have both performed in their respective leagues over the past four seasons – effectively Kane’s first full season in the Tottenham first team.
Ronaldo outperforms Kane in terms of goals – scoring 134 to 105 – but the deeper numbers make for interesting reading. Any casual observer of Ronaldo knows that he has adopted a shoot-on-sight strategy. He amasses mountains of chances and scores a great deal too. Kane doesn’t shoot as much, but his conversion rate is actually superior to Ronaldo – 18.62% to 16.92%. It’s not a cavernous gap but over four seasons it indicates that Kane is the superior finisher of the two.
Kane also registers a superior xG differential to Ronaldo. Here is Opta’s definition of xG:
Expected Goals (xG) measures the quality of a shot based on several variables such as assist type, shot angle and distance from goal, whether it was a headed shot and whether it was defined as a big chance. Adding up a player or team’s expected goals can give us an indication of how many goals a player or team should have scored on average, given the shots they have taken.
In the graphic below, the xG differential indicates that Ronaldo scored 11 goals more than you would expect the average player to score. However, Kane outperformed xG by 25 goals – again underlining the quality of his finishing.
Has the gap closed?
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Cristiano Ronaldo and Joao Mario of Portugal warm up prior to the 2018 FIFA World Cup Russia group B match between Portugal and Morocco at Luzhniki Stadium on June 20, 2018 in Moscow, Russia.
Image credit: Getty Images
Stats from last season alone show that Kane not only scored more goals than Ronaldo in the league – he also did so with a greater conversion rate and with a far superior xG differential (5/17 to 0.53).
Ronaldo scored about as many goals as you’d expect the average player to score given the chances he had. As Ronaldo is not the average player – far from it – this is distinctly unimpressive. Kane, meanwhile, outperformed xG by five clear goals.
| League: August 2017-current | Ronaldo | Kane |
| Expected Goals | 25.47 | 24.83 |
| Goals | 26 | 30 |
| xG Differential (+/-) | 0.53 | 5.17 |
| Shots | 178 | 184 |
| xG Value per Shot | 0.14 | 0.13 |
| Shots per 90 | 7.0 | 5.4 |
| Conversion Rate | 14.61 | 16.3 |
| Minutes Played | 2292 | 3083 |
In last season’s league campaign at least, Kane was quite clearly the superior goalscorer.
Age-by-age: Kane in the ascendancy
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Harry Kane et Gareth Southgate
Image credit: Getty Images
Any direct comparison between the two men has to acknowledge that Ronaldo is 33 and Kane just 24. That’s nine years’ worth of experience and refinement. An age gap which has permitted Ronaldo to score a European record 85 international goals and, with Messi, dominate the football scene.
But what about if we compare Kane’s trajectory to Ronaldo’s at the same age? Once again, the numbers tell an interesting tale. On the date of their 24th birthdays, Kane was in fact ahead of Ronaldo – by just four career goals. Again there is a caveat here: Ronaldo only became more of a traditional striker later in his career after he left Manchester United, where he was largely employed as a winger until his final campaign at Old Trafford.
Conclusion
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Harry Kane (England)
Image credit: Getty Images
The data is clear: since Harry Kane’s emergence as a force to be reckoned with, his domestic record stands up to Ronaldo’s and even exceeds it. Had he had the volume of shots of his rival then it is likely he would have scored many more goals. Moreover, when you compare by age, he is marginally ahead of Ronaldo’s record for this stage in his career – a tantalising prospect when you consider Ronaldo now has 658 for club and country.
However, there is a big difference between the two. Ronaldo has also been dominating the Champions League – winning in four of the past five years and scoring 120 goals in the competition. It’s hard to compare against Kane because he hasn’t played many matches in the Champions League due to Tottenham’s inferior status when compared to Real Madrid. When it really comes down to it on the big occasion, and nothing is bigger than the World Cup, the clever money is still on Ronaldo.
But anyone questioning Kane’s ability to reach Ronaldo’s level should know that by some measures, he is already there.
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