Gloomy forecast predicts just 13 golds for Team GB
Great Britain will slip from second to seventh in the Olympic medal table at Tokyo 2020, according to an ominous forecast released just six months out from next summer’s Games.
Britain are expected to win 42 medals in total (12 silver, 17 bronze) this summer, with sprinter Dina Asher-Smith tipped to be the headline act with a gold and two bronze medals.
Although Gracenote’s table has Britain in sixth place, their inferior forecast of gold medals to the Netherlands (16 golds) would see their positions flipped in the official standings.
If all went according to the predictions, the United States would top the medal table ahead of China, Japan, Russia and Australia.
However, huge questions remain around Russia’s participation in Tokyo after the World Anti-Doping Agency (WADA) imposed a four-year ban for doping offences.
The decision, which has been appealed to the Court of Arbitration for Sport, would appear to rule out athletes competing under the Russian flag.
WHERE WILL GB'S GOLD MEDALS COME FROM?
|Athletics||4x100m relay||Men's team|
|Canoe Sprint||K1 200m||Liam Heath|
|Cycling - Track||Team pursuit||Women's team|
|Equestrian - Eventing||Individual||Canter (Allstar B)|
|Equestrian - Eventing||Team||Mixed team|
|Equestrian - Jumping||Individual||Maher (Explosion W)|
|Gymnastics - Artistic||Pommel horse||Max Whitlock|
|Shooting||50m rifle 3 positions||Seonaid McIntosh|
|Swimming||100m breaststroke||Adam Peaty|
|Taekwondo||Featherweight 49-57kg||Jade Jones|
WHO WILL MISS OUT?
Notably, GB are not predicted to win an individual medal in any cycling discipline.
Golden couple Laura and Jason Kenny are among the distinguished absentees, despite winning five titles (three individual) between them in Rio, although both can expect to be in the teams tipped for medals in the velodrome
There’s also no mention of Mo Farah, who famously completed the ‘double-double’ over 5,000m and 10,000m in London and Rio. The 36-year-old has already signalled his intentions to ditch his road racing to pursue a fifth gold over the longer distance on the track in Tokyo.
Double Olympic champion Andy Murray is also absent, although much more expectedly given his recent injury woes. He should be assured of a place in Tokyo regardless of his ranking, with one place reserved for a former winner in the singles draw.
"The reduction in medals for Britain is due to lower expectations in cycling - track, gymnastics - artistic and rowing amongst other competitions," read a press release from Gracenote.
"In 2016, those three sports accounted for nearly one third of British medals (22). In 2020 however, they are currently expected to produce just eight podium places."
GB AT PREVIOUS SUMMER GAMES
- The United States is expected to win the most medals overall at Tokyo 2020. This would mark the seventh successive Summer Games during which the American team would have come out on top of the medal count competition.
- After falling to 70 medals in 2016, China is expected to bounce back in Tokyo to cement second place on the Virtual Medal Table for the third successive Summer Olympics.
- While Japan is expected to improve on its Rio 2016 medal total by over 50%, this increase is not likely enough for the host nation to genuinely challenge China for second place.
- With Russia likely to be banned from Tokyo 2020, the focus will be on how many of their athletes are allowed to compete under the Authorised Neutral Athletes or Olympic Athletes from Russia banner.a total broadly in line with performances at other non-hosted Winter Olympics.
- Great Britain’s medal total is expected to drop significantly from 2016. Their best hope is to break into the top-five rather than the top-three where they landed in the last two Olympics.
- Along with Japan, the Netherlands head a group of NOCs who can expect to improve significantly on their 2016 medal totals.
- The United States and Japan are expected to perform best in the 45 new or returning Olympic events on the Tokyo 2020 programme.
Facts supplied by Gracenote