Carlos Alcaraz looks like tennis' next big star after winning Next Gen Finals ahead of 2022 Australian Open

It’s looking more and more like a question of when, not if, for Carlos Alcaraz.

During a breakthrough season the 18-year-old has been touted as a future star on several occasions. Rafael Nadal said he has “plenty of ingredients to become a great player” after beating him Madrid, Andy Murray predicted he could be world No 1 after facing him in Indian Wells, and Stefanos Tsitsipas was left in awe of his ball-striking after losing to him at the US Open. “I’ve never seen someone hit the ball so hard… he can be a contender for Grand Slam titles.”

Alcaraz is yet contend for the biggest titles, but his impressive victory at the Next Gen Finals underlined his status as one of the best young players in the game. He stormed through the draw in Milan, dropping just one set and only two service games on his way to the title, and is the youngest player to earn 32 tour-level victories in a year since Andrei Medvedev went 32-11 in 1992.

Even though he has soared from No 141 in the world to No 32 this year, his opponent in the final in Milan, Sebastian Korda, does not expect Alcaraz’s rise to stop anytime soon.

“He's definitely playing a lot better than his ranking and he won't be in that spot for long.”

Alcaraz clearly has the tools to be a top player. He is strong on both sides, especially with his booming forehand, he is quick around the court and has good touch at the net. He showed all of those qualities during an epic point-of-the-year contender against Brandon Nakashima at the Next Gen Finals. There is still a rawness to his game at times as he goes for too much or drops his level, as he did during his five-set win over Tsitsipas at the US Open, while his serve also has room for improvement. But his maturity at such a young age is impressive and he has a strong guiding hand in coach Juan Carlos Ferrero.

“I'm a very strict person when it comes to work and he has gradually had to incorporate things that he didn't have and that I told him were very important,” former world No 1 Ferrero told the ATP last week.

“At first, he found it tough but then he understood that in the end it's a way of life. He gradually learned these things and there is merit in that because that wasn't the case at the beginning. He was a person who, when he was tired, really dropped his level of training and I've always been consistent in telling him that you have to work during those times.”

Alcaraz has already made big strides this year. He started 2021 with just one-tour level win to his name and finishes with a 32-17 record and one title in Umag. He also made the semi-finals in Winston-Salem and Vienna, along with the quarter-finals of the US Open. He is the youngest player since Novak Djokovic in 2005 to make the third round of two majors in the same year and has scored some impressive victories against Tsitsipas, Matteo Berrettini, Jannik Sinner, Cameron Norrie and Andy Murray.

His rise has led to obvious comparisons with fellow Spaniard Rafael Nadal, who also enjoyed success at a young age. When Alcaraz earned his 30th win of the season last week he became the youngest player to do so since Nadal went 30-17 in 2004. Murray’s coach Mark Petchey recently branded the comparison “lazy”, but while Alcaraz is a world away from where 20-time Grand Slam champion Nadal is now, he has shown similar potential as an 18-year-old.

“When somebody at his age is able to do the things that he's doing, it’s because you have something special,” said Nadal after they met for the first time in Madrid earlier this year.

Ferrero acknowledged that “carrying the burden of comparisons with a player like Rafa is difficult for such a young boy”, but he is trying to steer him on his own track. “He has to be very clear, and other people do too, that he has to stay on his own path. I won't say that Rafa's career is unrepeatable, but almost. Carlos has to have his own career and keep looking forward.”

Where the comparisons with Nadal and Alcaraz don’t fall down is with their physicality. Alcaraz is already a huge hitter of the ball, with arguably one of the biggest forehands seen on tour since Juan Martin del Potro, and his physio and rehab specialist, Juanjo Moreno, thinks that the 18-year-old still has around another 10 per cent that he could add to his game.

“In terms of body type or muscle definition, let's say he's at 90 per cent of his potential,” Moreno told the ATP. “There is always room for improvement and we will improve.

“We've given the Ferrari a lot of horsepower, and we'll continue to take care of it so that it continues to generate its full potential. We're going to keep working to get that 10 per cent room for improvement he still has.”

At the 2022 Australian Open, which starts on January 17, Alcaraz could be seeded at a Grand Slam for the first time in his career. If his trajectory continues then bigger milestones are likely to soon follow. Perhaps this time next year he will playing in Turin at the ATP Finals as one of the eight best players in the world rather than at the Next Gen finals in Milan. There can be little doubt now that his future is very bright.

“If everything continues as I think it may, I think next year will be…interesting,” says Ferrero.