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Blazin' Saddles: Five Truths from the early season races

Felix Lowe

Published 05/02/2016 at 15:47 GMT

A flurry of early season races has set the tone for Sky's domination and has called out for a Kittel-Ewan showdown, says our blogger Felix Lowe.

Elia Viviani celebrates his stage win at the Dubai Tour

Image credit: Eurosport

Some days you wait at the autobus stop and when it finally arrives the destination's flamin' Australia.
Then on other days, you're about to give up hope and go cross-country on your Belgian motor-powered steed – when all of a sudden (and without any warning from your U23 minor's canary) a whole convoy of buses swoosh round the corner offering you quite the array of destinations: Melbourne, Valencia, Avignon (via Besseges), Dubai and even Moe, the so-called armpit of Gippsland.
Well, that's the cycling season for you. Just last week we were making do with a few outings in Mallorca off the back-end of the Tour Down Under. But now there seems to be a handful of races every day – from three continents worldwide.
Cadel Evans ushered in this bonanza, commentating on his own Great Ocean Road Race with those trademark dulcet tones: squeaky and disjointed, but nevertheless impassioned and insightful. Indeed, Cadel told viewers how Peter Kennaugh was always "a pleasure to ride against" – an assertion no doubt contested by those not in retirement when the Sky rider soloed to victory in Geelong last Sunday.
It set the 26-year-old British champion up nicely for this week's Jayco Herald Sun Tour – which is to Melbourne what the Tour Down Under is to Adelaide. Like an A-list celebrity putting in a surprise appearance at a lowly market town's annual pantomime, double Tour de France winner Chris Froome has chosen the Herald Sun Tour as the ideal place for him to start his season.
But it was Kennaugh who outperformed his illustrious team-mate in the opening prologue before the pair darted clear of the field in the opening stage to set up a one-two that saw the Manxman snatch the leader's jersey from Will Clarke's shoulders.
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Viviani survives crash-littered day to win stage two of Dubai Tour

It was Sky's second win in less than 12 hours what with Dutch whippet Wout Poels winning the opening time trial in the Volta a la Comunitat Valenciana back in Europe. Italian Elia Viviani then made it three-in-three for Sky with victory in some sea-surrounded construction site of dubious verticality somewhere in between Spain and Australia.
But the week has not wholly belonged to Sky, with purring rivals Etixx-QuickStep making it five wins for the season through Dan Martin (in Valencia) and Marcel Kittel (in Dubai), hungry Caleb Ewan making it eight (or is it more?) wins just for himself after his latest antipodean scalp, and spunky Frenchman Bryan Coquard doubling up in the Etoile de Besseges for Direct Energie in southern France.
Without much ado, here are a few Truths cobbled together from all the racing...

1. Marcel Kittel is back

Rumours of the German sprinter's flying form after a strong off-season with his new team were confirmed when Kittel won on his debut for Etixx-QuickStep, pulling clear of all his rivals with apparent ease in the opening stage of the Dubai Tour. Bad placing in the stage 2 finale showed that he may have as much frustration with the Etixx train as his predecessor Mark Cavendish, but Kittel scaled the Hatta Dam strongly enough to be within a shout of taking the overall win on Saturday's final stage.

2. Mark Cavendish fans should not dispair

If Cavendish's return to Dubai after a three-year absence was meant to mark a return to his winning ways in the desert then the Dimension Data sprinter has so far been left frustrated. Outclassed by Kittel in the opening stage, Cav struggled to find the right positioning after a crash disrupted the peloton out of the tunnel one day later. An untimely puncture in stage three made it a hat-trick of setbacks for the 30-year-old, who was looking less like the Manx Missile and more like Jeremy Corbyn's version of Trident on wheels.
But the season is long and Cavendish has spent his entire winter preparing for the track and not the road. Come the business end of his year – around July for the Tour – Cavendish can still be firing.

3. Caleb Ewan's the man to beat – on paper

Kittel's win over Cavendish may have extended the German's long victorious streak over his rival but there's a new kid on the block who is putting both fast men to shame this season. Ewan's win in stage two of the Herald Sun Tour on Friday means the 21-year-old has yet to lose any sprint he has contested this year, having cleaned up during the Tour Down Under and on the Aussie criterium circuit earlier in January.
Of course, there's a big caveat: these wins are in his native Australia and against a comparatively weak field. The Orica-GreenEdge rider will find it much more arduous to canter clear of his rivals during his maiden Giro appearance in May – although the way he stuck in with a select group over the hills ahead of the stage 2 finale in Moe is mighty promising.
Still, scissors beats paper, and until now Ewan's been fighting stone.

4. Business as usual for Sky and Etixx-QuickStep

They're winning machines and 2016 is proving no different. Sure, Orica-GreenEdge top the leader board so far this year thanks to Messrs Ewan and Gerrans, but the strength in depth shown by both Sky and Etixx at this early stage of the season is quite staggering.
Irishman Dan Martin opened up his account for Etixx in Valencia following his move from Cannondale – adding to earlier victories from the likes of Kittel, Gaviria and Brambilla. As for Sky, they're proving strong in both one-day and stage races. With the likes of Kennaugh, Michal Kwiatkowski, Geraint Thomas, Ian Stannard, Lars-Petter Nordhaug and Luke Rowe on their books, there's no better time than the present for Sky to win that elusive major classic.
As for the stage racers, well Poels' performance as well as newcomer's Benat Intxausti in Valencia shows the team's strength in depth, with top dog Froome returning comfortably to the fold down under. Throw in the likes of Sergio Henao, Mikel Landa, Leopold Konig, Nicolas Roche and Thomas, and the talent pool is scary.

5. Is Giacomo Nizzolo the new Greg van Avermaet?

The Italian Trek-Segafredo rider has had a busy start to the season with races in both Australia and Dubai – but despite featuring heavily in most of the bunch sprints he's still looking for his first win of the season.
On Thursday Nizzolo picked up his fourth third-place of the year – his second in Dubai following a brace in the Tour Down Under. He went one better on Friday at Hatta Dam where, despite missing out once again as Juanjo Lobato (Movistar) took the win, Nizzolo took the race lead from Kittel with one flat stage remaining.
The problem is, given Nizzolo's proclivity for finishing third this year (much like a certain Belgian), he may well miss out on the blue jersey – especially if Kittel bookends his race with stage wins.
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