Nairo Quintana favourite for Vuelta, says Juan Antonio Flecha
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Updated 21/08/2015 at 18:35 GMT
Eurosport cycling expert Juan Antonio Flecha believes Movistar's Nairo Quintana holds all the aces ahead of the Vuelta a Espana - and has backed Tinkoff-Saxo pair Rafal Majka and Peter Sagan to shine.
Nairo Quintana
Image credit: AFP
The top four riders from July's Tour de France will take to the start of the Vuelta in Puerto Banus on Saturday but it's Colombian climber Quintana who will hold an advantage over Tour winner Chris Froome (Team Sky) according to Flecha.
"After what happened in the Tour when Quintana finished very strong and proved himself to be the best climber out there, I think he must be favourite," said former Spanish classics specialist Flecha, whose last two years in the pro peloton came alongside Froome at Team Sky.
A "tough race" that "suits the climbers" thanks to "nine mountain-top summit finishes that are completely new to the Vuelta" will play into the hands of 25-year-old Quintana, the 2014 Giro d'Italia winner and twice runner-up to Froome in the Tour.
"There are no crosswinds or dangerous stages that should put Quintana in trouble - and the Vuelta is a lot more chilled, not as hectic as the Tour - so on paper, Quintana is the main favourite."
MAIN RIVAL: FROOME
Despite Froome's solid head-to-head record over his Colombian rival, Flecha believes there's a "question mark" over the 30-year-old. "For sure he's in very good shape but it will depend on how long he's able to maintain that condition - because the last week is going to be very hard.
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Great Britain's Christopher Froome, wearing the overall leader's yellow jersey, rides during the 138 km nineteenth stage of the 102nd edition of the Tour de France cycling race on July 24, 2015, between Saint-Jean-de-Maurienne and La Toussuire, French Alp
Image credit: AFP
"Froome's one goal this year was winning the Tour which he has achieved - but Nairo did not win any stages on the Tour and he was second place knowing that he was probably the best climber out there.
"I expect Sky to be strong in Spain but not super strong. They know how to win Grand Tours but they've been shown to have weaknesses too."
Instead, Flecha rates Quintana's Spanish Movistar team - which also boasts the Tour's third-place rider in Alejandro Valverde - as the strongest, although he is excited to see if Astana can replicate their "super strong" form from the Giro.
DON'T FORGET: NIBALI & ARU
The Kazakh team are lining up multiple Grand Tour winner Vincenzo Nibali and fellow Italian Fabio Aru for the first time on a major race, with Spaniard Mikel Landa - a surprise third place on the Giro podium behind Aru in May - riding in support ahead of his expected departure from Astana.
Nibali, the 2010 Vuelta champion, struggled to defend his Tour crown in July before rallying to fourth place in Paris, and Flecha feels the 30-year-old has what it takes to get back to winning ways.
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Italy's Vincenzo Nibali rides during the 201 km sixteenth stage of the 102nd edition of the Tour de France cycling race on July 20, 2015, between Bourg-de-Peage and Gap, southern France
Image credit: AFP
"There are some who would say they're not sure is Vincenzo is coming with ambitions or not but he finished the Tour very well and when he starts a race he's always very competitive. It will be a mistake not thinking about Nibali for the GC," said Flecha.
Flecha, who will reprise his role as Eurosport's cycling expert in the daily on-site live show Vuelta Extra during the race (broadcast immediately before and after each live stage), does not believe Nibali's supposed rivalry with fellow Italian Aru will jeopardise either riders' chances in Spain.
"They are professionals and they will co-operate and perform well together," he said. "It's always hard to have two strong riders on the same team but sometimes having that competition on the team is good - they both want to be better, be the first, and so it's a positive thing."
OUTSIDER: MAJKA
With defending champion Alberto Contador missing the race following his dual assault on the Giro d'Italia and Tour, the door at Tinkoff-Saxo has been left open to Polish climber Rafal Majka, who returns to the Vuelta for the first time since 2013 in search of a maiden stage win and a strong finish on GC.
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Poland's Rafal Majka celebrates as he crosses the finish line at the end of the 188 km eleventh stage of the 102nd edition of the Tour de France cycling race on July 15, 2015, between Pau and Cauterets, southwestern France
Image credit: AFP
"It's a good challenge for him because he's going to lead the team in a Grand Tour and that is a great opportunity for him to show how far he can go," said Flecha.
"Majka will not have any excuses and he will not need to look after any other leaders because the team will be around him, helping him and supporting him. He's a great rider - I don't put him as a favourite but as a good outsider.
"Can Majka finish on the podium? Why not? It's a perfect situation for him to be a leader and an outsider."
LONG-SHOTS: VAN GARDEREN, HENAO
If Majka stands a chance of making the podium through his attacking riding in the mountains then another rider could make it a very different way. American Tejay Van Garderen (BMC) was forced to quit the Tour through illness - and although it would be a "surprise" if the 27-year-old picks up his first Grand Tour victory in Madrid next month, Flecha believes he could still make the podium.
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USA's Tejay Van Garderen rides behind the pack during the 161 km seventeenth stage of the 102nd edition of the Tour de France cycling race on July 22, 2015, between Digne-les-Bains and Pra Loup, southeastern France
Image credit: AFP
"In the Tour he looked very good and he was in the top three for many days until after the second rest day when he had that bad day and had to go home. He's a rider that you don't expect to attack much - just following and following and looking for opportunities - but if he can go on the attack some days, perhaps he will surprise us."
Another outside bet for the podium, according to Flecha, is Colombian Sergio Henao, who returns to Grand Tour action 14 months after a serious knee injury. The 27-year-old has been in solid form this season with podiums in both the Tours of the Basque Country and California, and the diminutive climber could be an able Plan B for Team Sky.
"Maybe if Chris Froome is struggling we can see Henao going for a podium or even the win. He has these attacking characteristics and so maybe he could be a good surprise," said Flecha.
LAST CHANCE: RODRIGUEZ
One rider who deserves success after a string of near-misses if Spanish veteran Joaquim Rodriguez of Katusha, who has finished in the Vuelta's top ten six times in his long career.
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Spain's Joaquim Rodriguez celebrates his polka dot jersey of best climber on the podium at the end of the 186,5 km eighteenth stage of the 102nd edition of the Tour de France cycling race on July 23, 2015, between Gap and Saint-Jean-de-Maurienne, French A
Image credit: AFP
"If there's somebody who really deserves a Grand Tour victory - and specially the Vuelta - it's him," said Flecha of 36-year-old Rodriguez, who struggled to make an impression in July's battle for the yellow jersey but nevertheless won two stages including the Pyrenean queen stage to Plateau de Beille.
"Rodriguez has been around a long time and has won many big races but not a Grand Tour. Of course, he deserves it, of course - and I'm not saying this sentimentally. He doesn't have many opportunities left and his career is more at the end. But he did a great Tour so why not?"
RISKY COURSE
While Flecha believes that a challenging course with many summit finishes will make the Vuelta "very competitive" he also fears that the accumulation of climbs so late in the season may lead to some kind of stalemate between the favourites.
"On paper it should be very competitive but sometimes I'm afraid that having so many climbs could be wrong. The organisers decided to have such a course with so many attacking opportunities. Maybe they want to have the race alive from the first day till the last but it's always a risk.
"It could be a case that not much happens - that every day is the same story and at the end the favourites are always there and it gets repetitive. Because it's just not possible for the favourites to go on the attack each day."
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The pack of riders cycles the 186km 18th stage of La Vuelta, Tour of Spain, cycling race from Burgos to Pena Cabarga September 12, 2013
Image credit: Reuters
Employing the same playful turn of phrase that makes his insightful appearances as an expert on Eurosport so memorable, Flecha used an interesting analogy to convey his concerns.
"It's like going to the supermarket and wanting to buy milk, but there are 20 different brands of milk and you end up buying rice milk or something. Or going for a coffee and there are too many options. It's the same when I look at the course and every day I see too many climbs.
"Too much choice may actually make the riders not really attack at all."
SPRINTERS: SAGAN, BOUHANNI, DEGENKOLB
The proliferation of uphill finishes - the first of which comes as early as stage two - may spell out slim pickings for the sprinters, but the likes of Frenchman Nacer Bouhanni (Cofidis), Germany's John Degenkolb (Giant-Alpecin) and Slovakia's Sagan (Tinkoff-Saxo) will all look to get back to winning ways in the race's six flat finishes.
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Slovakia's Peter Sagan, wearing the best sprinter's green jersey, reacts after crossing the finish line in second at the end of the 201 km sixteenth stage of the 102nd edition of the Tour de France cycling race on July 20, 2015, between Bourg-de-Peage and
Image credit: AFP
Bouhanni took a brace of wins in the Vuelta last year while Degenkolb is one stage shy of a double-digit tally from his past two appearances in Spain. And while Sagan is without a Grand Tour win for over two years, Flecha feels the 25-year-old showman is on the cusp of overcoming this well-documented hoodoo.
"I think Peter will definitely win at least two or three stages here," Flecha said. "For example, the Murcia stage (stage eight) is very good for him - I remember Thor Hushovd winning here before. There's a very narrow climb that they will do two times followed by a downhill to the finish. It will be a small group making it to the finish and that's one option for him."
ROUTE RUNDOWN
Although all nine new summit finishes become ahead of the second rest day, Flecha believes the final five stages of the race should not be underestimated.
"There may be no mountain top finish in the last week but after the time trial in Burgos - which is almost 40km - there's a few stages before Madrid which are not easy. They're up-and-down with steep but short climbs, so it's going to be tough and anything can happen."
Regarding the controversial opening team time trial from Puerto Banus to Marbella - which involves sections on a wooden walkway and a sandy dirt track - Flecha said the conditions were "interesting" and he could envisage none of the main favourites taking any risks.
The race organisers have since moved to declare all times for the 7.4km race against the clock will be neutralised owing to the safety issues voiced by many riders, although the Vuelta's famous red jersey will still be up for grabs for the first rider to cross the line from the winning team.
Juan Antonio Flecha will be Eurosport's expert analyst on the daily on-site live show Vuelta Extra, broadcast immediately before and after each live stage of the Vuelta on Eurosport.
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