Should Manchester United replace Louis van Gaal now - and what would Jose Mourinho bring?

This is what we know about the current situation at Manchester United: The side are playing poorly, performing below expectations in the Premier League, and have already been knocked out of the Champions League. In the last few weeks alone they have lost at home to Southampton and Norwich, and needed a late penalty to scrape through in the FA Cup third round against League One side Sheffield United.

Here is what we have also been told about the current situation at Manchester United: That Louis van Gaal, embarrassed by his side’s displays, has offered his resignation at least once, that club officials have met with Pep Guardiola in recent weeks, and that Jose Mourinho – desperate to return to football after his Chelsea sacking – is so keen on the United job he has written the club a six-page letter outlining his action plan for turning the Red Devils around.

We can clearly see that all is not well at Old Trafford, but from what we hear it is equally clear that a change in manager could happen sooner rather than later. The latest reports suggest that Van Gaal’s position is being evaluated on a game-by-game basis and that, considering his aforementioned attempts at resignation, a defeat to Derby County in the FA Cup on Friday could spell a final parting of ways.

If that was the case, it could see Mourinho ride into town – finally securing the job he has reportedly coveted above all others ever since the writing appeared on the wall during his time at Real Madrid. It is clear the Portuguese would have plenty to address at Old Trafford, so it is interesting to wonder what was in that letter (assuming that it was actually written, for Mourinho's agent Jorge Mendes has denied it, and even called reports of its existence "absurd")and what it might mean for the club going forward.

According to the original Independent report, from Eurosport contributor Miguel Delaney, the letter was:

Mourinho’s camp, of course, moved quickly to dismiss the idea that the letter even existed.

“It does not occur to anyone that a coach like José Mourinho can write letters to clubs offering their services,” his agent, Jorge Mendes, said in statement. ”It is absolutely ridiculous and totally absurd.”

As Ben Lyttleton points out, however, Mendes’ denial lacks an actual denial – calling a report ‘absurd’ (a synonym of implausible) is not the same as calling it false.

It is something of an open secret that Mourinho coveted the United job when Sir Alex Ferguson announced his decision to retire, although his camp continue to dispute Spanish journalist Diego Torres’ assertion that the Portuguese cried when he heard that the club had ultimately opted to appoint David Moyes instead (United fans would be the ones crying later).

Subsequent reports have indicated that the United hierarchy, influenced by legendary player Sir Bobby Charlton, moved away from the Special One due to his conduct, which they perceived to be unnecessarily antagonistic and not in keeping with the United ethos. Mourinho’s letter, at least in part, seems to have been an attempt to acknowledge those philosophical differences and promise a different conduct going forward.

Yet Mourinho’s second stint at Chelsea, where he railed at everything from Sky Sports to Arsene Wenger and many referees in between, will have done little to persuade Charlton and others that Mourinho has somehow changed, while the manner of his exit – amid reports he had alienated half the playing squad – will do little to dismiss the sense that Mourinho is a dictatorial, explosive leader with a persecution complex that in the end always gets the better of him.

United’s decision-makers, responsible for the a billion-pound business, will not be fooled by Mourinho’s assertions – if they hire the Portuguese, they will know such an appointment will come with a few unsavoury outbursts. If anything from the letter is likely to convince United to appoint him it will be the tactical and personal points Mourinho made, not any feeble promises about his conduct.

It is a fun, if inherently speculative, exercise to wonder what exactly Mourinho said about the current line-up in his six-page letter (if he is using a standard font size, that gives him about 3,000 words to play with).

Like applying for any job, evaluating the work already done is a balancing act between praise (you don’t want to insult your potential boss’s ongoing efforts!) and constructive criticism (you do want to get across the point that you can improve things). Considering United are currently struggling in the league, not to mention Mourinho’s well-defined persona, you sense he will have leant more towards the latter than the former in his letter to Ed Woodward.

Beyond the goalkeeping position, it is difficult to see what Mourinho might have praised. The central defensive unit will have got a lukewarm reaction from the Portuguese – although Chris Smalling might have been picked out as someone to continue to build around – while his cautious optimism over Luke Shaw and Matteo Darmian might have been tempered by confusion over who their long-term back-ups/challengers are. Morgan Schneiderlin and Anthony Martial might also have been singled out as players to construct a team around going forward, but you wonder if any others earned anything other than a shrug of the shoulders from the Portuguese.

Except Wayne Rooney, of course, who presumably earned at least a paragraph from Mourinho in his letter. He declared his interest in the striker during his time at Chelsea and, given Rooney's status as the nearest thing United have to a talisman right now, Mourinho would surely have outlined the way he would turn Rooney into a prolific goalscorer once again - perhaps assuring Woodward that Rooney would be his starting striker, with the side built around providing him with chances.

Manchester United have had at least one academy graduate in every matchday squad since October 1937, an incredible streak that now extends to nearly 3,800 matches. Part of Mourinho’s remit would involve continuing that proud tradition although, given the twin factors of his famous reluctance to blood young talents and the recent questionable ability of United’s academy graduates, it is tempting to fear that the Portuguese’s arrival might actually hasten the end of the run.

Mourinho hardly gave young players a chance at Stamford Bridge, of course, with his reluctance to select Ruben Loftus-Cheek (and the likes of Dominic Solanke, and before that Kevin de Bruyne and Romelu Lukaku) pinpointed by some as another factor in his departure. At United the talent levels may arguably be worse, but the pressure to play homegrown players will be even greater.

Paddy McNair and Cameron Borthwick-Jackson have been involved semi-regularly this season, but Mourinho has often been even more hesitant about playing young defenders than other positions on the pitch. James Wilson might come back from loan as a third option next season – but given Patrick Bamford’s Chelsea plight the youngster should hardly hold his breath about his first-team prospects. Adnan Januzaj and Andreas Pereira apparently count towards the streak (which only makes you question its real authenticity), but neither feels like a Mourinho player at this (still early) point in their development.

Mourinho might understandably know relatively little about other touted academy prospects like defender Axel Tuanzebe and forward Marcus Rashford, but would be expected to give them chances over time. For a while, however, Mourinho might have to ‘cheat’ to keep the streak – naming Sam Johnstone as substitute goalkeeper every week.

In his second stint at Chelsea Mourinho generally flitted between a 4-3-3 and 4-2-3-1 formation, with both able to switch to what would look to most observers like a 4-5-1 when the situation demanded it. Such a tactical approach has been pretty much a constant in Mourinho’s managerial career and, other than a couple of mild tweaks to suit personal at Old Trafford, is something he would surely look to continue.

That would not necessitate a massive change from Van Gaal’s basic framework (hardly surprising, considering the Dutchman was a formative influence on Mourinho the coach), but the system would demand different things from the players. Morgan Schneiderlin, Ander Herrera and Michael Carrick would offer a midfield broadly similar to the Nemanja Matic, Cesc Fabregas, Oscar central alignment of Chelsea, but Memphis Depay and Anthony Martial would have to learn a whole lot about defensive discipline if they were to play the wide roles behind Rooney in any lineup.

The importance of the full-backs in Mourinho’s system as all-action contributors would seem to suit Shaw (at least once he is fit) and Darmian, but might be more of a struggle for the likes of Ashley Young, Antonio Valencia and Marcos Rojo.

Mourinho has probably looked at every position and come to the considered conclusion that there is room for improvement – with the obvious exception of goalkeeper, although the Portuguese may feel David De Gea will have to be replaced at whichever point Real Madrid finally get their act together.

We know from previous stories that he is a fan of Rooney, while Chelsea were also strongly linked with trying to sign Shaw and Martial in the past. All three might embrace the chance to work with Mourinho – although Juan Mata might be rather less excited.

Mourinho has never been much of a fan of the role-switching that someone like Daley Blind has performed this season, preferring to have players assigned to one specific position as much as possible. One of his first jobs might be working out what that best role is – is Blind a central midfielder, or a left-back? Is Marcos Rojo a centre-back, or a left-back? – and, once that is done, he might have a better idea who exactly he wants. To speculate, however, it would seem he might have written that United need at least one top centre-back, another central midfielder and a true ‘No. 10’ to truly turn things around.

United have already strengthened their links with Jorge Mendes in recent seasons, but the arrival of Mourinho would only cement that partnership – and mean it would surely be highly likely that a few players represented by Mendes’ agency, GestiFute, would come through the doors at the Old Trafford.

Such a business arrangement might leave United fans feeling a little queezy – but then again it might also help land Mendes' top client, Cristiano Ronaldo, so others might deem it a pact worth making.

There are a number of players from Mendes’ books that United might do well to add – especially youngsters like Ruben Neves (Porto), Goncalo Guedes (Benfica) and Andre Gomes (Valencia). Throw in the more established Ezequiel Garay (Zenit), William Carvalho (Sporting Lisbon) and Thiago Silva (PSG) and a Mendes-Mourinho combination might quickly, if not exactly inexpensively, be able to plug many of the squad’s weaknesses.

Considering his managerial record, one established at a number of jobs, we can be pretty confident in presuming that Mourinho would improve the efficiency of the side, ensuring the current imbalance between possession and goals (plenty of the former, almost none of the later) is redressed over the second half of the season.

Mourinho would make United a bit more reliable at the back while adding more of a counter-attacking element, which in a perhaps counter-intuitive way would sate the “Attack! Attack! Attack!” chants that roil around Old Trafford at the moment (counters against broken defences often look more ‘attacking’ than patient, possession-based build-ups).

But equally there might be (another) transitional period while players adjust to the changes of the new manager - which, given the club are already five points off the pace in the race for the top-four, might prove costly come the run-in this season. It seems a safe bet that Mourinho would turn United into a more formidable outfit next season but, if he cannot be guaranteed to help them achieve their aims this season, is there a real need to rush into a decision?

This is another consideration for United – the fact that the managerial market, like the player market, might be much better stocked in the summer, if they are confident enough to stick out the season with Van Gaal. If they believe the Dutchman will guide the side to a top-four finish, even if the style of football remains dire, then there is no reason why they would not seriously consider that route.

Already-employed managers are generally easier to extricate from their current clubs at the end of a season rather than during one, meaning United might have more success if they decided to pursue Massimiliano Allergri, Mauricio Pochettino or even Ronald Koeman during the off-season.

The prize candidate, of course, is Pep Guardiola – who has already confirmed he will leave Bayern Munich in the summer but is yet to say exactly where. The common consensus is that Manchester City will land the lauded Spaniard, but until a deal is actually announced it would seem logical that United at least have a shot at the former Barcelona man.

If they appoint Mourinho in January, of course, then that shot disappears entirely.

It is an important consideration, because what you would get with Guardiola (or any of the other managers mentioned) is very different to what Mourinho would offer.

From the style of football to the players that would be targeted (or would be interested in coming to the club), the dynamic becomes very different. Guardiola’s arrival might actually necessitate an even bigger overhaul of the playing squad than Mourinho would demand but, given the state of this season, is that really such a terrible prospect?

Guardiola would also prioritise the recruitment of young, intelligent players who have shown the technical and tactical basics to fit his vision - while finding ways to improve the passage of academy players to the first-team. He would try to turn the club into a modern side, after a few seasons of (to be blunt) pretty reductive leadership, and single-handedly change the mood around a club that seems to have allowed standards to slowly slip since Ferguson departed.

Many other managers offer a different approach. Ultimately, if United do not believe Mourinho’s vision fits their long-term vision then the only reason to appoint him now would be panic – the fear Van Gaal will not lead them to a top-four finish.

Currently fifth, five points off that crucial Champions League spot, only they will know just how antsy they are feeling.