Europe calling: Who will win the Premier League race for a top-four spot?

After a bloody and merciless midweek fixture list that seemed to leave every top Premier League contender to pick themselves up off the canvas, it looks like a volatile and often irrational domestic season has no intention of becoming any more predictable coming down the final stretch.

The title itself remains firmly up for grabs, but with 10 games remaining for most sides there is still little certainty about the other key positions either – who will survive relegation, for example, or even who will finish in the four Champions League qualification spots.

Midweek saw two of the teams currently in possession of one of those top four spots (Manchester City and Tottenham) beaten by sides trying to chase them down (Liverpool and West Ham), while the other two (Arsenal and Leicester) failed to beat relegation candidates (Swansea City and West Brom) at home.

That has left the top of the table bunched once more as we enter the final quarter of the campaign, and many pundits questioning which sides – if any – have the quality and staying power to make a real surge to the finish line.

Any side that can put a run together between now and the middle of May is likely to reap great rewards for it, but such things are easy to aim for and far harder to execute. So, who will be representing England in Europe’s top competition next season?

The average points total for the eventual winners in the 20-team Premier League era is 85.7. Leicester, setting the pace at the moment, are on course to finish on 77.4 points if they can maintain their current rate. That shows how much more competitive the league is this season than it has been historically, while also giving us an idea of what points range – 76+ - might allow a team to win the title.

For the top four, it is a bit more complicated. Manchester City, currently in possession of fourth, are on course to finish on 66.1 points. Manchester United, the best of the chasing pack, are currently tracking to reach 63.8 points. That is an inexact science, however, given that City have a game in hand and the result of that match alone will immediately tweak the prognostication perceptibly.

Nevertheless, it seems broadly reasonable to guesstimate that 65 points is the minimum target clubs can now set themselves if they want a top-four finish (for reference, that would have been enough to finish fourth last season too).

Current position: 1st
Points (W-D-L): 57 (16-9-3)
Goal difference (league rank): +20 (2nd)

In their favour: The pace-setters, front-runners, apple-cart-upsetters from almost the word ‘go’, Leicester have made a mockery of long-established perceptions about the competitive balance of the Premier League with a tactical fluency that has won plenty of admirers. In the likes of Riyad Mahrez, Jamie Vardy, N’Golo Kante and Robert Huth they have at least four of the best players of the season so far, while manager Claudio Ranieri seems to have tapped into a team spirit and unity that no other side can appear to match. No team has scored more goals than Leicester this season, no team has lost fewer games. They picked up 22 points from their final 10 games last term – if they did that again this time around they would almost certainly be champions. Half of that should comfortably be enough to finish in the top four.

Cause for concern: Bar a moderate start to the campaign, the Foxes are yet to go through a real ‘slump’ – the sort of difficult spell that all sides seem to have to negotiate at one point or another. They might be unencumbered with any other competitions to compete in, but equally have also been operating for much of the campaign with a very small core of players – meaning fatigue is surely going to rear its head to some extent at some point before the campaign is done. That might also mean injuries – with the recent loss of N'Golo Kante a potentially significant blow. Of course, as good as the likes of Vardy, Mahrez and Huth have been this season, the perception remains that they cannot continue to sustain that level – and even a fractional drop-off could have serious consequences. It also does not bode well that Ranieri, despite a few chances, has never actually won a top-flight league.

Verdict: A fair run-in (West Ham, Manchester United and Chelsea are their hardest remaining fixtures, and all in their final five games) means the Foxes can already plot their road-map to glory. Currently 10 points clear of fifth, they probably need four wins to be sure of Champions League football. They should do that relatively easily, perhaps with those final five games to come - when the title will then be up for grabs. Champions League next season? YES

Current position: 2nd
Points (W-D-L): 54 (15-9-4)
Goal difference (league rank): +27 (1st)

In their favour: Statistically speaking, there is much to suggest Spurs are actually the best team in the league this season. They have conceded fewer goals than any other team and scored the second most goals – leaving them with a goal difference (a broad indicator of a team’s ability relative to the competition) far superior to anyone else’s at this point. They are hard to break down, hard to stop scoring, and possessing of an increasingly well-understood philosophy under manager Mauricio Pochettino. They have quality in almost every position, and the squad has been carefully rotated to keep them as fresh as possible heading into this crucial phase of the campaign.

Cause for concern: The frantic, panicked manner of their performance in defeat to West Ham in midweek perhaps underlined that this is a squad with a distinct lack of title experience, a problem magnified by the pressure of people’s expectations – many, including some of their own fans, now see them as title favourites. The league’s best defence has been disrupted somewhat recently by Jan Vertonghen’s injury, while they are still competing on two fronts – meaning fixture pile-up is becoming a problem even for a squad that has been delicately handled. An injury to Harry Kane would remain devastating, while it is not unfair to suggest that the historical ‘Spurs way’ has been to stumble over short of the line, rather than surge through the tape in style.

Verdict: Prior to the game at Upton Park the club’s situation looked so rosy, yet now the red flags are starting to become more prominent. They have a devilish run-in amid a brutal Europa League double-header with Borussia Dortmund, and have no experience of dealing with the pressure of contending for a title. To secure a top-four spot they probably need 15 points from their final 10 games; the weekend’s north London derby will be crucial in defining whether or not they can responsibly aspire to much more than that. Champions League next season? HIGHLY LIKELY

Current position: 3rd
Points (W-D-L): 51 (15-6-7)
Goal difference (league rank): +16 (4th)

In their favour: At this particular moment in time, it is difficult to be that optimistic about Arsenal’s immediate prospects. In Mesut Ozil they have the league’s finest creator, while the fact they have the third best defence and fifth best attack suggests finishing in the top four should be eminently achievable. Recent injury problems seem to be coming to an end, and the squad knows what it takes in these situations – nearly 20 years of qualifying for the Champions League tells its own story.

Cause for concern: Back-to-back defeats to Manchester United and Swansea City have seen the Gunners fall off the pace, and defeat to Spurs at White Hart Lane this weekend would surely end their title hopes. They have already lost seven times, more than any previous champion, which underlines the fragile nature of a team that still feels more likely to fall apart than stand tall when the pressure is really on. Remaining visits to Goodison Park, Upton Park and the Etihad will hardly help in that regard.

Verdict: The north London derby is surely a must-win game – anything else would end their title aspirations, but even a win would not resolve all their recent ills. In recent seasons Arsenal have made a habit of knocking themselves out of the title race and then finishing strongly to secure a top-four spot – the way things are going, that could be their trajectory once again. Which, given the opportunity presented to them barely two weeks ago, would be a significant disappointment. Champions League next season? PROBABLY, BUT NO GUARANTEES

Current position: 4th
Points (W-D-L): 47 (14-5-8)
Goal difference (league rank): +17 (3rd)

In their favour: Fitness permitting, they have as good a squad of players as you could hope to call upon to compete for a title – especially if Kevin de Bruyne returns in the near future. Unlike their nearest rivals they have been there and done that, winning the title in 2012 and 2014, and so should not find the pressure an unmanageable burden. Their remaining games against top four rivals are also at home, while many players will be incentivised to play hard for their future at the club under a new coach.

Cause for concern: The fact that the club with what most observers would agree is the best all-round squad in the league is currently sitting fourth in the table is a clear indication that something is seriously wrong around the Etihad. Eight defeats in 28 games is a staggeringly poor return for a side of such quality and expense. The impending arrival of Pep Guardiola remains a huge distraction, but more pressingly the back-line still appears to be an accident waiting to happen. A tough finish to the season means they will need to get their act together very quickly - yet City have somehow not managed to win back-to-back league games yet in 2016.

Verdict: The next five or so games will be crucial – if City can beat Aston Villa and Norwich, rule the derby against United, and then knock off Bournemouth and West Brom then they will head into the last month of the campaign right in the hunt (a visit to Newcastle also needs to be re-arranged somewhere). Then it will be down to them to finish strongly: they conclude with meetings against Chelsea (a), Stoke (h), Southampton (a), Arsenal (h) and Swansea (a). City probably need 20 points from those games to be sure of fourth, and nearer 30 to win it all. They simultaneously have the players to achieve such a run of results, and have shown absolutely zero evidence this season that they will be able to do so. Champions League next season? MAYBE

Current position: 5th
Points (W-D-L): 47 (13-8-7)
Goal difference (league rank): +11 (joint 6th)

In their favour: One of the few top sides who are perhaps riding a positive wave at the moment, with recent results (and the impact of Marcus Rashford) quickly turning around a situation that looked positively acidic only a few weeks ago. United have been a brilliant defensive side all campaign, and more recently seemed to have found a few answers to the unimaginative attacking style that held them back from almost the opening weekend. Injuries have ravaged the squad recently yet they have kept in the top-four hunt – surely they can step up another level once those players start to return?

Cause for concern: Let’s be honest, few have been impressed by United for more than a few fleeting minutes this season – even the win over Arsenal was (probably accurately) characterised as a failure on the part of the Gunners rather than a remarkable performance from Van Gaal’s men. The current heavy reliance on young, largely unproven players is a risk that no other top-four hunter is having to take, while they are also likely to be the last team still fighting on three fronts - meaning fixture congestion is going to be a considerable factor.

Verdict: It would be foolish to rule out United, who somehow have become perceived as the little engine that could this season despite simultaneously being the richest competitor around. Van Gaal seems to have taken the sticks and arrows and, slowly, is coming out the other side – but a packed fixture list and stretched squad are not a recipe for the sort of strong finish the team will need to finish in the top four. Champions League next season? UNLIKELY, BUT DERBY WIN COULD CHANGE THAT

Current position: 6th
Points (W-D-L): 46 (12-10-6)
Goal difference (league rank): +11 (joint 6th)

In their favour: Six defeats all season tells its story – only two teams have lost fewer. Under Slaven Bilic the Hammers have become a resolute outfit, perhaps the one team the big sides fear facing above all others (Spurs’ defeat at Upton Park was really no embarrassment). In Dmitri Payet they have a game-changing attacking player, while Michail Antonio has improved drastically to complement the Frenchman more recently. Momentum is firmly on their side and, with the final games at Upton Park sure to provoke a raucous atmosphere, they will be a difficult game for anyone.

Cause for concern: The club now has successive away games against Everton and Chelsea – lose both of those and it’s fair to suggest any top four hopes they currently have will quickly be ripped apart. The Hammers remain the outsiders in this particular battle, and the productivity of Payet and Antonio is tempered by the fact their strikers are not particularly prolific right now. They are up against rivals with bigger squads and better talent, which puts huge pressure on Bilic to mastermind something in what remains his maiden campaign in a new league.

Verdict: It would be a fairytale for the club to enter the Olympic Stadium with Champions League football to grace it, but realistically that looks to be just out of reach this term. The team is undoubtedly on an upward curve, however, and it feels like this is not the last time this club will be sniffing around the European places at the business end of the season. Champions League next season? PROBABLY NOT.

Liverpool: If we assume they win their game in hand (against Everton), the Reds could be just three points off the top four with 10 games remaining. Their run-in is reasonable – they host Spurs in their toughest remaining match, although they also visit Southampton – and they finish with five games against bottom-half sides. Realistically, however, they probably need at least 24 points from a possible 33 to rise to fourth … an incredibly unlikely proposition. Winning the Europa League is probably their best hope of qualifying for the Champions League, and obviously even that is fraught with difficulties.

Stoke: Five points off fourth at the moment, that becomes eight if Man City win their game in hand (against Newcastle). As well as the Potters have done this season, dropping more than a handful of points between now and the end of season would be fatal to their hopes, and they have a lot of dates with sides around them still to come.

Southampton: A poor start to the season seems to have put paid to the Saints’ aspirations of anything beyond a top-eight finish. Picked up 16 points from seven games prior to their latest two defeats, but would need to improve even upon that to have any top-four chances.

Chelsea: Guus Hiddink has recently revived the possibility of European qualification, but a Europa League spot is surely the best they can hope for. If the Blues won every game between now and the season they would finish on 69 points – quite probably good enough for at least fourth – but their run-in involves meetings with West Ham, Man City, Spurs and Leicester. Winning the Champions League and repeating the trick of 2012 is surely their only viable chance of qualifying for next season’s competition.