Opinion: And then there were four… Why Bora-Hansgrohe must now back Jai Hindley for Giro d'Italia glory

The three slender seconds that now split Richard Carapaz and Jai Hindley at the top of the general classification represent the smallest gap in this stage in the race since 1963, when maglia rosa Diego Ronchini had only two seconds on fellow Italian Vittorio Adorni.

That year Ronchini did not hold on to win the Giro – but then neither did Adorni, who ended up in second place after conceding the race lead to Franco Balmamion after Stage 19 after a single day in pink.

Fast forward 59 years and the race is shaping up to be far tighter come Sunday’s time trial in Verona than the 2’24” gap by which Balmamion ultimately won the 46th edition. Just 59 seconds separate Carapaz and fourth-place Mikel Landa, with Joao Almeida, the white jersey, falling to 44 seconds back but retaining his spot on the virtual podium.

Vincenzo Nibali remains on course for his highest Grand Tour finish since the 2019 Giro, the 37-year-old Astana leader replacing his fellow Italian veteran Domenico Pozzovivo in the top five after the latter skidded off the road on the descent of the Mortirolo while the former was putting in one of his infamous downhill attacks.

But Nibali is now 3'40" down and clearly a shadow of the rider who overturned the same kind of deficit to win his second Giro in 2016.

It was less of a Shark attack than a Nibali nibble and Pozzovivo was able to get back into the main pack before Bahrain Victorious whittled things down on the final climb ahead of what was ultimately a rather subdued effort from Landa to pull the trigger. It didn’t help Bahrain’s cause that Landa had clipped teammate Pello Bilbao’s back wheel while trying to avoid a photographer on the side of the road – sending his fellow Basque climber sprawling just as they were looking to put their masterplan into action.

At the very least, while Bilbao shipped two minutes and dropped to seventh on GC, Landa finished safely in the wheels of Carapaz and Hindley to keep alive his own dream of a first Grand Tour podium finish since the 2015 Giro.

But Hindley remains the big dangerman, the 26-year-old Australian every day showing that his breakthrough performance in 2020 was no fluke, that it was, in fact, perhaps merely a harbinger of even better things to come.

Bora-Hansgrohe must now show a little faith in Hindley. They need to stop riding for stage wins and start riding for the maglia rosa. Then they may actually find that their leader doesn’t need to rely on bonus seconds to get the better of his big rival Carapaz.

Let’s look at the remaining stages and see where the 105th edition of La Corsa Rosa can be won and lost…

On paper, the easiest of the remaining mountain stages – although it could easily prove to be a bit of a banana skin if the weather isn’t playing ball. There’s an uncategorised climb from the outset, a lot of descending, some rolling roads, and then back-to-back Cat.1 slogs ahead of another short descent to the foot of a ramped finale.

While a breakaway should go the distance, Hindley has already showed what he can do when he takes the fight directly to Carapaz. On Tuesday he did that pretty much on his own after Bora seemed to prioritise a second stage win for Lennard Kamna rather than the pink jersey for Hindley.

Bora had both Kamna and Wilco Kelderman in the move, but when push came to shove neither rider dropped back and helped Hindley in the way Wout Poels did for Landa and Bilbao. Sure, Bahrain Victorious had the wind knocked from their sails with that freak crash for Bilbao, but at least they rode with some purpose.

To be fair to Bora, it’s not as if they are incapable of focusing their efforts: we saw on Saturday’s glorious stage around Turin that, when they put their mind and legs to it, they can be pretty devastating. Well, they now need to strike when the iron is hot. Kelderman and Kamna have had another day in the sun – let them go all-in now for Hindley and try to catch Ineos Grenadiers out. The British team often have power in numbers - but they also often leave their Ecuadorian leader isolated at key moments when put under pressure.

A day off in the fight for pink. Two lower-category climbs but an otherwise flat percorso should give Arnaud Demare an opportunity to net his fourth stage win – although you’d expect the likes of Magnus Cort and Mathieu van der Poel to try their best to get into a breakaway that goes the distance.

Friday’s stage is the first of two back-to-back summit finishes and a day that you would expect suits the breakaway artists more than the GC riders, who may opt to keep their powder dry ahead of the mega Dolomites showdown and the final TT. There’s a brief foray into Slovenia after the race passes through Alessandro Di Marchi’s home town of Buja, so you can expect the Israel-Premier Tech rider to be in the day’s break.

It’s worth noting that the penultimate climb – the Cat.1 ascent of Kolovrat which takes the riders out of Slovenia and back into Italy – boasts an average gradient of 10% over 10km. It could be the perfect springboard for someone to put whoever may well be in pink on the backfoot – especially given the final climb is short and quite gentle.

With two Cat.1 monsters either side of the race’s highest point, the Passo Pordio, it’s probably here where the outcome of the Giro will be decided. A lot will depend on the weather and the weary legs, with the final double-digit slog of the Passo Fedaia/Marmolada surely enough to ensure that the gap between first and second on GC won’t still be a matter of a few seconds.

It’s futile speculating what may happen here in four days’ time without knowing what the state of play will be at the start of the stage. But while a strong team effort may be key here, it goes without saying that if the individual doesn’t have the legs, then no amount of help will make any difference. For any rider slightly off his game, the punishment could be severe.

Jai Hindley will have bad memories of final-day time trials while in the pink jersey – so if the Australian is in the lead at this point, he will hope to have a decent enough gap over his nearest rival, especially if that rival is a Grenadier…

A small Cat.4 climb bang in the middle could arguably make more of a difference for single riders performing against the clock than a huge Dolomite peak when riding together. On paper, the Portuguese Joao Almeida stands to benefit most from a final day TT like this – but the UAE Team Emirates rider has been losing seconds on most days in the mountains and so it will all depend on how far Almeida has to come from behind.

One thing is certain: Mikel Landa won’t be relishing this at all. The Spaniard will need to be in pink and with at least a minute to play with going into Stage 21 if he wants to win that elusive first Grand Tour – so he’d better not touch wheels with teammate Pello Bilbao again in a hurry. Talk about shooting yourself in the foot when you're running up to take the spot kick...

The head says Richard Carapaz for the overall win, but the heart says Jai Hindley. Either way, we should be in for a cracking ride.