Blazin' Saddles: Who, or what, can stop Chris Froome from winning La Vuelta?
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Updated 08/09/2017 at 14:31 GMT
Britain's Chris Froome is just five stages away from an historic Tour-Vuelta double and he's yet to break into top gear. Can anything – or anyone – stop him now?
Sky's British cyclist Christopher Froome (C), Bahrain-Merida's Italian Cyclist Vicenzo Nibali (R), Sunweb's Dutch cyclist Wilco Kelderman cross the finish line of the 11th stage during the 72nd edition of 'La Vuelta' Tour of Spain cycling race, a 187,50 k
Image credit: Getty Images
Team Sky's Froome holds a 1min, 1sec lead over his nearest rival Vincenzo Nibali (Bahrain Merida) in the battle for red – but Tuesday's time trial is bound to add more gloss than a Dulux factory.
But if, as they say, it's not over until Mariah Carey sings, then who – or what – can stand between the 32-year-old and his first Vuelta crown this Sunday? Our cycling blogger Felix Lowe delves into what's on the horizon beyond Monday's second rest day...
A rainy time trial to Logrono
To save a few lines of conjecture, let's cut to the chase: it won't rain in Logrono on Tuesday. In fact, the forecast is a hot, cloudless, still 29C – so there's no way Froome's superior time trialling ability will be curtailed by wet corners or gusting winds.
With that in mind, let's look at some figures to work out what may happen in the largely-flat 40.2km race-against-the-clock.
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Stage 16 preview: Time Trial made for Froome
On a similar 37km course to Calp last year, Froome eased to victory – putting 1'57" into Alberto Contador, 3'13" into an in-form Esteban Chaves and 3'35" into David de la Cruz. In a slightly hillier 37.5km affair to La Caverne de Pont d'Arc in the Tour last year, Froome finished a distant second to Tom Dumoulin but still 2'04" clear of Ilnur Zakarin, 2'26" ahead of Nibali and 3'54" in front of Wilco Kelderman.
Nibali, Zakarin, Kelderman, Chaves… these are the riders who complete the current top five behind Froome: riders who, come Tuesday evening, will be many, many minutes adrift of the race summit.
Likelihood of lead slipping: Nil.Froome's second stage win of La Vuelta will put him almost three minutes to the better of his nearest rival, Nibali.
Some more dusty downhill corners
It took the best part of two weeks for Froome to make a mistake on this Vuelta – and when he did, he made two in as many minutes.
If Froome's two crashes on the final descent to Antequera on Thursday's Stage 12 showed that he has, at times, the bike-handling skills of EasyJet baggage staff, then his mere loss of 22 seconds and a bit of skin to his knees and elbows seemed to show that, this year, his bad luck on the Vuelta was not going to threaten total derailment as it has in the past.
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Juan & Only: Fletcher reviews dramatic conclusion to Stage 12
That said – there's nothing saying that Froome won't experience an Andorra moment (such as when he broke a bone in his foot at the start of the queen stage two years ago) or a Formigal nightmare (losing a heap of time when caught napping as he did last year).
Likelihood of lead slipping: Not very.The presence of the time trial, plus arguably Sky's strongest ever team in the Vuelta, has ensured that Froome has been able to ride this race for the most part defensively. And should he double or treble his lead come Tuesday, then it would take more than a small tumble to take the wind out of his sails.
Vintage Nibali and Contador
What we have seen in this Vuelta – certainly more than the cagy battle of attrition that is the Tour – is an open race where some of the big-name riders are more prepared to attack from distance rather than bide their time and follow the wheel.
On Sunday's stage to Sierra Nevada, Contador attacked along with the eventual winner, Miguel Angel Lopez, on the penultimate climb, while Nibali rode clear of the Sky-led peloton on the Alto Hoya de la Mora with 12km remaining.
Sure, it didn't work out for either Contador or Nibali – both lost time – but it shows their willingness to go for broke and test this Sky team.
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Froome and Contador's epic battle lights up Stage 8 finale
Between them, Contador and Nibali have 11 Grand Tour wins (the Spaniard would say 13) of which four have come in La Vuelta, a race Froome is still yet to add to his palmares. Entering the twilight of his career, Contador has nothing to lose – particularly seeing that he's now four minutes down on GC.
Make no mistake: Contador cannot win La Vuelta. That's preposterous. But it was his move on Thursday that created the environment that saw Froome crash once, then go down again when the heat was on. Such moves can win races – if not for the authors, then those who form part of the immediate narrative. It was the same in the ambush of Formigal – a move created by Contador, from which Nairo Quintana emerged the main benefactor.
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Trek Segafredo's Spanish cyclist Alberto Contador poses for a selfie photo with fans before the star of the 13th stage of the 72nd edition of 'La Vuelta' Tour of Spain cycling race, a 197 km race from Coin to Tomares, on September 1, 2017.
Image credit: Getty Images
As for Nibali, the Italian is a classy rider with experience and composure. Time and again he's proved that you must discount him at your peril. This race still has many climbs – 14 to be precise – and almost as many descents. Limit his losses on Tuesday and the Shark may still test the waters in the final week.
Likelihood of lead slipping: Hard to say.Contador will want to retire on a positive and will do his best to win a stage or make the final podium. Nibali, too, will look to make his second podium of the season. But the Spaniard is fast becoming a pedalling anachronism while does Nibali have the explosiveness on the climbs? Probably not.
A Kelderman-Zakarin alliance
Almost ghosting into the top five – and now both flirting with a podium finish in Madrid – Russia's Zakarin and Dutchman Kelderman are on course for their highest finish in a Grand Tour. Will these lofty heights inspire them to take things to the next level?
A lot will depend on how they fare on Tuesday. While Kelderman is no Dumoulin when it comes to racing against the clock, he's no Michael Rasmussen, either. As for Zakarin, the warm, dry weather will mean there should be no repeat of his Chianti shocker from two years ago, when he crashed three times in the Giro "wine trial" while en course for the pink jersey.
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Katusha-Alpecin's Russian cyclist Ilnur Zakarin crosses the finish line of the 15th stage of the 72nd edition of 'La Vuelta' Tour of Spain cycling race, a 129,4 km race from Alcala La Real to Sierra Nevada, Alto Hoya de la Mora, on September 3, 2017.
Image credit: Getty Images
If Team Sunweb's Kelderman is riding more to follow than to distance, Katusha-Alpecin's Zakarin finally showed his capability to drop the Sky train and take back time on his rivals in Sierra Nevada. He's not the most attractive rider to watch – but if looking good on a bike won you Grand Tours then Pierre Rolland would be a modern-day Merckx, and Froome would be a unknown journeyman at Barloworld.
Likelihood of lead slipping: High.While the two won't necessarily unite – after all, they could well be battling each other for the final place on the podium – their shared strengths and weaknesses mean that, by default, they could well ride in tandem in pursuit of their goals. It won't be enough to see either in red, mind.
Echoes of Fuente De or Formigal
As we know from Contador's previous exploits – a race-winning move does not have to come on the queen stage. Heck, it doesn't even have to come on a stage that even promises a slight GC shake-up – just ask Joaquim Rodriguez, whose best chance of winning a Grand Tour was snatched away by Contador at Fuente De, the day after the final rest day of the 2012 Vuelta: a stage that featured just three lower-category ascents.
There are two similar days remaining in this year's race. Take out the time trial and the final flat stage to Madrid, and the remaining four stages are bookended by those 'Especial' summit finishes on the Alto de Los Machucos and the Alto de l'Angliru: both capable of delivering a sucker punch.
But in between there's Thursday's Stage 18 to Santo Toribio de Liebana – which is Fuente De-esque with its rolling opening half and then four lower-category climbs – and Friday's Stage 19 to Gijon – which is peppered with climbs and has a fast, technical, 15km descent to the finish.
Likelihood of lead slipping: Hard to say.On paper, these stages look wonderful – although cycling fans so often expect so much, only to see so little. It depends what's left to contest but these are hard stages which won't be easy for Sky to control – especially if things kick off early. Fingers crossed for fireworks.
The Angliru
If all else fails, then there's always the Angliru. 12.5km long and with an average gradient in double figures – and a maximum of a stonking 25 per cent – this is a climb that once prompted one directeur sportif to say: "What do they want? Blood? They ask us to stay clean and avoid doping and then they make the riders tackle this kind of barbarity."
When the race last came to the Angliru, in 2013, the top 10 were separated by two minutes on the day; two years earlier, Froome finished second but 48 seconds down on the man who eventually denied him the red jersey – Juan Jose Cobo.
This may not tell us so much, but what is true is that it's a brute of a climb where riders cannot hide. If you're suffering an off-day on the Angliru, you could easily ship five minutes and plummet down the standings.
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Adrien Petit of France grimaces as he climbs Alto de L'Angliru port during the 142-km 20th stage of the Vuelta, Tour of Spain cycling race from Aviles to Alto de L'Angliru September 14, 2013. A fierce duel on Saturday between Horner and Nibali in the Tour
Image credit: Reuters
Likelihood of lead slipping: Small. Froome could have such a cushion by the time the race hits the Angliru that he may be able to sleep-walk the climb conservatively and well within his limit. Unless he is ill or carrying an injury, it should only prove an obstacle if the time gap between him and his nearest rivals are slight, which they won't be.
Lopez off the leash
Going on recent performances, the only man who could prove a threat to Froome's push for red is Astana's Miguel Ángel López, who's demonstrating just why fans call him Superman with two stage wins and counting. The 23-year-old trails Froome by 2'51" on GC – down from 4'29" on the eve of his first stage win, at Calar Alto in Stage 11.
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Miguel Angel Lopez at Stage 15
Image credit: Getty Images
Lopez is climbing better than anyone else in the race, and it's worth bearing in mind that he finished second in the Tour de Suisse time trial last year ahead of the likes of Fabian Cancellara and Kelderman. On a flat, longer course, he will for sure concede a shed-load of time to Froome – but if anyone can gain up ground uphill, then Lopez is that man.
Likelihood of lead slipping:Romantic, but not realistic. Lopez will continue to dazzle – and may even make it a hat-trick of wins with victory on the Angliru – but he will get as close to being in the red as Bill Gates.
Final verdict
We shouldn't kid ourselves: the 72nd edition of La Vuelta is Froome's to lose. For a more wholesome discussion, perhaps the question should rather be who can stop Froome from a clean sweep of jerseys? After all, entering the final phase of the race, the Briton is in red, leads the combined classification, is three points clear of Matteo Trentin in the green jersey standings, and is 20 points short of Davide Villella's polka dot jersey tally – with 108 points still up for grabs.
His consistency should see him triumph in the green and combined as well as easily win the red; it just remains to be seen if the pint-sized Colombian climber Lopez can continue his meteoric rise and himself move above Villella – whom he trails by eight points – while holding off Froome behind.
Pre-race predicted top 10:
1. Chris Froome, 2. Fabio Aru, 3. Vincenzo Nibali, 4. Alberto Contador, 5. Ilnur Zakarin, 6. Adam Yates, 7. Rafal Majka, 8. Wout Poels, 9. David de la Cruz, 10. Romain Bardet
Revised first rest day prediction:
1. Chris Froome, 2. Vincenzo Nibali, 3. Esteban Chaves, 4. Fabio Aru, 5. Alberto Contador, 6. David de la Cruz, 7. Adam Yates, 8. Tejay Van Garderen, 9. Ilnur Zakarin, 10. Wout Poels
Final rest day prediction:
1 Chris Froome, 2. Vincenzo Nibali, 3. Ilnur Zakarin, 4. Miguel Angel Lopez, 5. Wilco Kelderman, 6. Esteban Chaves, 7. Alberto Contador, 8. Fabio Aru, 9. Wout Poels, 10, Michael Woods
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