Breakdown of the Germany v Italy shoot-out: Why Mesut Ozil, Thomas Muller and Schweinsteiger missed

Germany continued their successful run of penalty shoot-outs with their sixth straight win since the 1976 European Championship final but their 6-5 victory over Italy was anything but routine. Germany were behind after three kicks each, missed an opportunity to win it after five kicks, and then had three rookie takers kick to stay in the competition. Nine players on each side took penalties, and one of the surprises was that Germany's Manuel Neuer was not one of them.

Here is a breakdown of the key moments in the shoot-out.

According to reports, Germany captain Bastian Schweinsteiger won the toss and chose to kick second. Records suggest that teams kicking first are more likely to win, but perhaps Schweinsteiger knew he was fifth up, and wanted to take the "glory shot". As we will go on to discover, ego played an important role in this shoot-out. The reason that those kicking second often wilt is because as the shoot-out continues, the pressure increases on the second kicker, as Poland’s Jakub Błaszczykowski found against Portugal.

This was a difficult call for both coaches. For a start, this German side does not fit into the natural tradition of ruthlessly efficient teams of the past; this is a more creative and versatile group of players, in line with modern German thinking. Which means that reliability from the spot is not guaranteed. Thomas Muller had scored 7 from 11 penalties this season, and missed his last one, a crucial kick against Atletico Madrid in a Champions League semi-final. Mesut Ozil has only ever scored one penalty out of four in club football, and he missed his last spot-kick in the previous round against Slovakia. Schweinsteiger also missed one in qualifying for the Euros.

Antonio Conte also had difficulties with his choices. His most experienced taker, Antonio Candreva (scored 18/22), was not playing and Eder (10/10 for Sampdoria) went off injured. That left Graziano Pelle as the only player to have taken more than three penalties (in open-play) in their career. It also made the equalizer from Leo Bonucci, from the spot, even more impressive, given that it was the first ever open-play penalty of his career.

When you get to the second half of extra-time, every coach has an eye on penalty-kicks. So the introduction of Lorenzo Insigne made sense, given his penalty record at Napoli last season (scored 2/2). Insigne also had a chance to get into the game, unlike Simone Zaza. The Juventus man came on one minute before the shoot-out, and his penalty was his first touch of the ball. As part of the research for my book Twelve Yards: The Art & Psychology of the Perfect Penalty, I asked Rickie Lambert, a penalty specialist, if he would be happy coming on in the last minute before a shoot-out. I was reminded of what he said when Zaza came on.

“It would be a better situation if he had been involved in the game beforehand,” Lambert said. “You need touches of the ball to get confident, to control the ball, and to get to know the feeling of the turf. Having confidence in the turf sounds silly but it’s very important. All those things mean it would be a hard task for a new player coming on – they would prefer to be on the pitch.”

Considering the standard of play during the match, and the fact that these two teams were probably the best two we have seen in the tournament, the quality of the penalties was surprising. The main reason for this is simply pressure, and what it can do to you. It is no coincidence that the three German players to miss – Muller, Ozil and Schweinsteiger – are three of the highest-profile players in the squad.

Dr Geir Jordet, a Norwegian professor of psychology, studied 37 shoot-outs from World Cup, European Championship and Champions League games. There were 298 different players, taking 366 kicks. He divided the players into three categories: current-status players, no-status players, and future-status players.

By current-status, he was referring to players who have won individual recognition for their performances: either a top-three place in FIFA’s World Player of the Year awards, the Ballon D’Or vote, South America’s Footballer of the Year, the World Cup Golden Boot or a place in UEFA’s Team of the Year. 41 players, taking 67 penalties, were current-status players. No-status players were those who had not won and never did win awards; future-status were those who had not won awards when they took their penalties, but would go on to win awards in the future.

Overall, 74% of the penalties were scored, but the current-status players only scored with 59% of their kicks. The no-status players scored with 74% and the future-status players, with 89%. The current status players also missed the target more often than the others: on 13% of their kicks, compared to 7% for future-status players and 5% for no-status players.

What does this tell us? Simply, that current-status players have more to lose and are likely to experience extra performance pressure. The fantastic penalties of Draxler, Kimmich and Hector, all their first ever penalties, suggests there is something in this.

Wow, where do we start with these? It’s worth mentioning the goalkeepers, as both Gigi Buffon and Manuel Neuer have excellent penalty-saving records. In league football since 2008, according to STATS.com, Neuer has conceded 14/22 penalties – 63 per cent conversion rate – and Buffon 13/20, a 65 per cent conversion rate. Both are well below the average of around 78 per cent conversion. That makes a difference too, as the mere presence of these greats in goal reduces the margins for error for the takers: they feel they need to aim for the furthest corner to make their penalty count. More pressure, then, on the takers.

Does that explain Zaza’s bizarre run-up, or Pelle’s unnecessary taunting of Neuer before his kick? Not at all. But all the same, I wondered whether they might have done the same against a no-mark keeper. The strange thing about Zaza’s wild kick was not just his run-up, which seemed unplanned (but may not have been) but his starting position. He shaped to kick as a right-footer but then hopped across to take it with his left foot. It’s no consolation of course, but Neuer dived the wrong way for it.

Pelle’s moment of madness was just as strange: the centre-forward has been outstanding this tournament and his style of play has been all about the team and bringing others into play. So again, it was strange to see his ego take over by telling Neuer that he was going to chip the ball down the middle before dragging it woefully. Three Italian players – Barzagli before Pelle, and Giaccherini and Parolo after – did go down the middle and score.

Eleven of the 18 penalties taken were scored and of the seven missed, three were saved and four missed the target. Neuer saved from Bonucci and Darmian, while Buffon’s only save was from Muller. The Italy captain can feel a little hard done by, given that of the six penalties that Germany scored, he dived the right way on five of them. Still, it could have been worse for him; it was almost at the point where the goalkeepers would be taking the penalties, and you’d fancy Neuer over Buffon in that scenario.

So Germany win another shoot-out, but this was unlike any other in the past. Before this game, it had missed two spot-kicks in six shoot-outs. Three players missed against Italy. This should give hope to opponents in a future shoot-out. This Germany is not unbeatable from the spot.