On Reflection: 5 storylines to expect at Euro 2016

With less than two weeks before the start of the European Championship, and the deadline for squads to be submitted coming on Tuesday, expectations are building ahead of what will be a fascinating tournament in France. Here are some storylines which we can expect to hear more of once the kick-off comes around next month.

Eighteen months of qualifying can seem terribly dreary when most fans are able to predict the identity of the final tournament teams once the qualifiers have been drawn. That was not the case this time around, with the increased format to 24 teams in France making the qualifiers far more exciting, with shocks including Slovakia beating Spain, Ireland beating Germany, Albania beating Portugal, and Netherlands missing out altogether.

One argument for the larger teams slipping up was that, quite simply, they could, because the enlarged format made it so hard to miss out. Try explaining that to Dutch fans who saw their side go from third in the World Cup to fourth in a qualifying group behind Czech Republic, Iceland and Turkey.

We had a good 18 months but the next few weeks could be a bit, well, bloated. The group stage is designed to reduce the 24 teams to 16, with each group’s bottom side eliminated and the two third-placed sides with the lowest points. It means that teams can slip up early on and still recover – unthinkable in the unforgiving 16-team format – and we might all need some calculators when Matchday Three comes around.

The benefits of exciting qualifiers and plenty of new teams in the competition outweigh the downside, but that won’t stop some people moaning…

If England coach Roy Hodgson has had one major impact in his four years in charge, it’s to lower expectations in the country. England no longer go into a tournament saying, ‘We are going to win this,’ but rather, ‘We will go as far as we can’. It’s a subtle change but one that does lessen the pressure on the players – and the coach. It has led to debates over what contributes success for Hodgson this summer. Robbie Savage, for example, has said: “If they don't get to the semi-finals, that has to go down as 100 per cent failure.” But is a last-four place with stodgy football better than reaching the last-eight and playing exciting football? There is no easy answer.

England must improve on their dismal World Cup performance, of which Hodgson says, in Henry Winter’s new book ’50 Years of Hurt’, out this week, “we were the better team against Italy” and “Uruguay’s goals were offside”. Hodgson’s job depends on it. In Brazil, the team had few excuses, but that was a rarity. In the past England have been able to blame other factors for eliminations: bad referees, villainous opponents who got virtuous England players sent off, and of course the unjust lottery of the penalty shoot-out. If England do not win the whole thing, it would be a change to hear the words, ‘We were beaten by a better side,’ from the England camp.

And if Hodgson does not meet expectations, then the FA has another headache on its hands. Where are the English contenders to replace him? No doubt that will be a conversation for later in the summer. How much later remains to be seen.

Also known as the Greece 2004 effect, although slightly more palatable on the eye. With no obviously outstanding team in Europe at the moment – in comparison to Spain’s Euro 2012 winners, for example, just after they won the World Cup – there is an opportunity for, if not for a new name on the trophy, then certainly a smaller nation to make a deep run. Germany may be the reigning world champions, but on Sunday lost a friendly 3-1 at home to Slovakia. This is not necessarily a sign of things to come, given Germany use friendlies as they should be used - to test out new players and systems, while results bear little comparison with tournament performance - but with Belgium playing down their high expectations, doubts over Spain and France with problems in defence, every team has its weaknesses. My tip would be one of Austria, Poland or Czech Republic to make the quarter-finals and maybe even further.

For all the talk of teams with individual stars – the likes of Portugal (Cristiano Ronaldo), Sweden (Zlatan Ibrahimovic) and Wales (Gareth Bale) – the likeliest top scorer will go to someone from a team that goes a long way. But look at the options and the big teams’ strikers have question-marks over them: Olivier Giroud is likely to start the tournament replacing Karim Benzema as France No. 9 (though don't be surprised if Antoine Griezmann ends up in the central position), while Spain’s Alvaro Morata, preferred to Diego Costa and Paco Alcacer, lacks experience at this level. Belgium’s Romelu Lukaku had a 16-month blank spell in front of goal, which recently ended with strikes against Portugal and Switzerland. All of which leaves Muller, who scored nine goals in as many games in qualifying, as a clear favourite to repeat his effort in the 2014 World Cup when his five goals in Brazil won him the Golden Boot. They may all come from a combined total of six yards, but the likeable Bayern forward won't care. Since the post-World Cup retirements of Philipp Lahm, Per Mertesacker and Miroslav Klose, Muller has become one of the new leaders of the team. His eye for goal will be decisive in the latter stages.

This is likely to be the final major tournament appearance for Sweden’s talismanic striker, who is currently publicly flirting with Manchester United after confirming he is leaving PSG. No-one would doubt that Ibrahimovic deserves his shot at glory in France – especially after his three goals in the qualifying play-off against Denmark – but there are some in Sweden who are not in thrall to his every move, especially when you confront the forward’s legacy.

“Senior team coaches now deal with a supply of young players who are basically ball-jugglers, narcissistic in their approach to the game and alien to basic concepts of teamwork,” says Gunnar Persson, a Swedish football commentator concerned at the ‘Zlatan-isation’ of the next generation. “There is now an unfortunate emphasis on individual skills while positional sense, covering for team-mates is a lost art. Traditional strengths like defensive teamwork and organisation have suffered. Sweden used to have a basic, albeit somewhat boring, style of play. Nowadays that foundation is gone: it’s just ‘Zlatan’.”

Ibrahimovic has had some great moments playing for Sweden – his back-heel goal against Italy at Euro 2004, goals against Greece at Euro 2088 and Ukraine and France at Euro 20212 – but Persson is hopeful that under new coach Jan Andersson, in place after the Euros, Sweden will improve by giving more responsibility to the younger players who won the Under-21 European Championship last summer.