On Reflection's Trends of Euro 2016: Minnows aren't done yet, midfielders the new strikers

The group stages are over and the calculators have been put away – for another four years at least. Euro 2016 has been lit up by the smaller countries and the occasional shock result: Croatia beating Spain and Iceland and Northern Ireland reaching the last 16. With a two-day break until the knock-out games begin, here are some thoughts about what we have seen so far…

The last-16 draw looks lop-sided with the eight teams in the top having never won a major tournament while the teams in the bottom half have won a combined 20 major tournaments – 11 World Cups and nine European Championships.

Is this UEFA’s fault? Has Marc Wilmots become a great coach for losing to Italy in Belgium’s opening match, so providing a far easier route to the final than the Azzurri have? Now we are guaranteed to see a non-winner in the final coming from that half of the draw, does the tournament become less exciting? Is this the next step in the Leicester-fication of the game? To all of these, the answer is no.

What the last-16 draw does show us is that the top seeds in the group who failed to finish top – Spain and England – have made life a lot harder for themselves. Italy may find it tough against Spain: these two are old enemies and it was only in 2008 when Spain beat the hex that Italy had over them; they then trounced them 4-0 in the Euro 2012 final. But even if Italy win that game, it could be Germany next; and that was always going to be the case.

Spain and England have made their lives considerably tougher, and if either fails to make it to the semi-final, then both can look at their final group games – Sergio Ramos missing that penalty and England failing to beat Slovakia – as to where it went wrong.

That won’t stop the debate: Michel Platini is no longer UEFA president, and it was his wish that the tournament be expanded to 24 teams. With Albania waiting three days to find out that they miss out on qualifying for the next round, and Italy drawing the reigning champions, not everyone will see it as a success. Wales and Hungary might though…

The coaches most likely to succeed in the next three weeks are those who are able to adapt to situations. Take Didier Deschamps: six months ago he through he knew his starting XI. Since then, Karim Benzema and Mamadou Sakho have dropped out for non-football, impossible-to-predict reasons; injuries have left him without Raphael Varane and Lassana Diarra, while loss of form ruled out Mathieus Debuchy and Valbuena. That’s six starters before you even get onto the back-ups like Kurt Zouma and Jeremy Mathieu.

Deschamps looks set to shuffle the pack again before France’s knockout match against Northern Ireland, with Blaise Matuidi possibly giving way to Moussa Sissoko and allowing Paul Pogba remain on the left of a midfield three, where he excelled against Switzerland. His next dilemma is how to get the best out of Pogba and star of the tournament Dimitri Payet in the same team. Solve that, and France could go far.

There is a similar debate in England, though Roy Hodgson is trying to work out the best combination for his front five players, not just two of them. Hodgson has spoken about the striking riches in his squad but strikers have only scored in one of the three group games. He may claim he knows his best XI, but no-one else seems to.

Adapting to changing circumstances – as Joachim Low did by moving Philipp Lahm from midfield to full-back mid-tournament at the 2014 World Cup, and Vicente del Bosque did by picking Alvaro Negredo to start the Euro 2012 semi-final (0-0 with Portugal) and then reverting to a non-striker line-up in the final, which they won 4-0 – can be key.

When Costa Rica made it out of England’s World Cup group that featured Italy and Uruguay at the 2014 World Cup, everyone assumed that was it. Well done, the plucky Concacaf side, some of whose players will end up benched at West Brom next season… you’ll be home soon.

It didn't quite happen like that. Costa Rica beat Greece on penalties in the second round, and were only spot-kicks away from beating Netherlands for a place in the semi-final. The question is, who will be this tournament’s Costa Rica – and can they go even further?

It could be anyone from the top half of the draw, with Poland and Croatia possibly meeting in a quarter-final while Hungary and Wales could also make it to the last eight. If the qualifying campaign was meant to give smaller countries their moment in the spotlight in France, they have taken the opportunity with both hands.

Think of the outstanding performances by individuals in the group stage and midfielders come to mind more readily than strikers. Andres Iniesta against Czech Republic and Turkey, Aaron Ramsey against Russia, Ivan Perisic against Spain; all were game-changers in the way that the big-name strikers, so far, have not been.

Some of the goals that have come from strikers have been when they have come off the bench – Antoine Griezmann against Albania, Daniel Sturridge against Wales (other subs like Niall McGinn and Bastian Schweinsteiger have also scored) – and as the knock-out stage gets underway, we may see more game-changers from the bench.