Arsenal aren't out of the title race - but the signs aren't good

At the High Court in London on Wednesday, a minor yet significant administrative act took place. Lord Lucan’s death was formally announced when a death certificate was issued, 42 years after his mysterious disappearance. The news means Arsenal’s title challenge is now the world’s most famous vanishing act.

It was supposed to be Leicester City who found their natural level in the Premier League, gently correcting their position as the fanfare around their results in the first half of the season faded. Instead, after Wednesday night, the stark realisation is that Leicester are exactly where they deserve to be in the table, with the best and most consistent team in England this season.

It is Arsenal who have retreated to familiar territory, a combination of their frustrating 0-0 draw at home to Southampton and wins for Leicester, Manchester City and Tottenham seeing them fall five points off the title pace and into fourth place, below Spurs. As many were quick to point out, it was rather fitting that Arsenal should drop into their customary slot on Groundhog Day.

Had Punxsutawney Phil been at Emirates Stadium at 9.40pm on Wednesday night, rather than emerging from his hole at Gobbler’s Knob, he would have heard a cacophony of boos greeting the final whistle and would not have hesitated to predict a prolonged winter of discontent for Arsenal.

A fourth successive match without a victory – and a third without even scoring a goal – has seen chronic doubt infect Arsenal, just weeks after it seemed that a chaotic and volatile Premier League season might have presented them with their best chance to win the title in nearly a decade.

Wednesday’s draw against Southampton - achieved by the visitors thanks to an astonishing goalkeeping performance from Fraser Forster, who made 11 saves, many of them world class – prompted a predictable meltdown from notoriously brittle Arsenal fans on radio and online.

“I don’t want to finish fourth! I’m sick of trying to finish in fourth!” cried one caller to Talksport, while the wounded denizens of Arsenal Fan TV huddled round a camera in a touching show of group solidarity, venting their anger and providing communal support as Claude turned the air blue.

It would be easy to write these reactions off as knee-jerk, typical of the flimsy foundation of modern fandom. After all, did Arsenal not actually create an overwhelming number of chances, with two or three going in on any other day? Did Mesut Ozil not make more key passes than any other player in any other match this season?

The underlying statistics looked pretty good. After stumbling performances in the 1-0 home loss to Chelsea, 0-0 draw away at Stoke and 3-3 draw up at Anfield, this was undoubtedly an improvement, particularly in the second half when Arsenal cut through Southampton almost at will, only to be denied by another remarkable reflex save by Forster. With 17 chances, Arsenal enjoyed more shots at goal than in any league game since September 12.

But underlying statistics have to be put into a wider context. There is little substance in talking up Arsenal’s improved metrics on a night when they drew and all of their title rivals won – as well as Manchester United, whose 3-0 win at Stoke brought them to within five points of the erstwhile league leaders.

Arsenal fans have seen this story before; hence the outpouring of frustration across all media, old and new. It is why Wenger was asked in his post-match interview with the BBC if this was a case of “same old Arsenal”. Wenger was visibly unimpressed with the enquiry, pointedly replying: “I don’t know why you say ‘same old Arsenal’, we have 20 years at the top of the Premiership.”

In a broad sense, this is true. Arsenal have never finished out of the top four under Wenger. But his reply does invite closer examination of their final positions during his reign. In the eight full seasons immediately following his appointment, 1997-98 – 2004-05, Arsenal never finished outside of the top two. In the 10 seasons since, they have never finished in it, coming third four times and fourth six times.

There is a clear demarcation point; title-challengers to also rans. This season could have been the moment when Arsenal, totally unshackled by any spending restrictions and with every other established power stumbling over their bootlaces, bucked the trend. Even two weeks ago it seemed extremely likely, but now familiar insecurities are establishing themselves with renewed fervor.

Five points is not an insurmountable gap. Far from it. Leicester visit Emirates Stadium in two games’ time and a win for Arsenal would transform fear into hope once again. There are even comforting historical parallels to be found following Wednesday’s stalemate against Southampton.

But without a goal in their past three games, Arsenal’s problems are manifest.

Wenger was uncharacteristically blunt, citing “very bad finishing” for the failure to beat Southampton. A lack of killer instinct. But it is more than that. It is the failure to take their chances in a match, and a persistent failure to take their chances in title races. A problem in microcosm which reveals broader, structural barriers to Arsenal winning the league title again under Wenger. Even in a season when Leicester City are setting the pace.