Everton's week of destiny against Liverpool and Man United could make or break Roberto Martinez

On the face of it, there may not seem to be much riding on this Merseyside derby. It’s eighth against 11th, with Liverpool enjoying a 10-point lead over their neighbours with a game in hand that’s unlikely to be bridged even in the case of defeat. Both sides have their eyes on semi-finals in other competitions. But there is a sense that Wednesday’s meeting at Anfield could prove very significant for Roberto Martinez.

At the very least, the game will highlight the contrasting moods at the two clubs, particularly in relation to their managers. Where Jurgen Klopp has already given Anfield a European night it will never forget and has inspired a sense of positivity despite indifferent league results (his win percentage is only 46.5% as opposed to the 51.2% of his predecessor Brendan Rodgers; even this season Rodgers took 1.5 points per game, only marginally poorer than Klopp’s 1.63), Everton’s frustration with Martinez has got to the point that banners are now being raised at games urging him to go.

Martinez himself is clearly aware that this week could determine whether he is still at the club next season. After Saturday’s draw with Southampton, which featured a one-man pitch invasion of protest, Martinez used the word “defining” nine times as he looked at the week ahead, which features not only the derby but, on Saturday, an FA Cup semi-final against Manchester United. The club’s new majority shareholder, Farhad Moshiri, will doubtless be watching with interest.

Yet so toxic has the atmosphere at Goodison become that it may be that even victory at Anfield, something Everton haven’t achieved since 1999, and an FA Cup success might not be enough to save Martinez.

When Martinez took the Everton job in 2013, replacing David Moyes as he made his ill-fated move to Manchester United, he had just won the FA Cup and been relegated with Wigan Athletic. His reputation was of a bright young(ish) manager who spoke engagingly of his belief in proactive, attacking football. If there were concerns about his capacity to set up a team to defend, they were outweighed by the feeling that most of his problems at Wigan had been a result of their limited budget.

Everton finished sixth that season, two points ahead of Liverpool. The next season they climbed to fifth and, even though they scored just six goals more than in 2012-13, the perception was of a more open, progressive style. Could it be, it was asked, that Moyes’s conservatism, far from being the attribute that preserved Everton’s top-half status despite limited funds, had been holding them back? Goals conceded, unexpectedly, also improved by a single goal.

But since then, it’s been a story of decline for Everton: they were eleventh last season and occupy that position again this. Martinez’s first season brought 61 goals for and 39 against. His second brought 48 goals for and 50 against. With five games of this season remaining, they’ve scored 53 but, critically, have conceded 44. As Martinez has skipped through Pollyanna-ish press-conference after Pollyanna-ish press-conference, relentlessly taking the positives, the accusation that he does not learn has come to seem increasingly valid.

What makes it worse is that the old excuses about money and the resultant quality of the squad don’t really pertain any more. The sums spent don’t in themselves look huge. A net £27.5million has been spent this season and £29m the season before, with the sake of Marouane Fellaini bringing an £11m profit the year before. But the careful husbandry of the Moyes years has meant Everton were able to land Romelu Lukaku and to keep hold of Ross Barkley and John Stones.

This is a very good, very bright young team. Some of their football this season has been exceptional. For 20 minutes away against Newcastle on Boxing Day, for instance, Everton were superb, playing with verve and intelligence, just lacking a killer ball (they eventually won with a Tom Cleverley header from a half-cleared corner in injury time). And that has been a regular complaint. Too often there’s been style without substance.

It’s more obvious with the defending, the inability to hold leads. They’ve let seven one-goal and three two-goal leads slip in the league this season – not including the game against Sunderland when they were 2-0 up, conceded twice and ended up winning 6-2. They’ve beaten one team who aren’t currently in the relegation zone since the end of September.

It hasn’t helped that Everton’s home form has been so poor – just four wins at Goodison all season, while they’re set to break the all-time top-flight record for the disparity between home games lost (eight at the moment) and away games lost (two). There is little succour for season-ticket holders. Not has Martinez helped himself with his remorseless optimism: sound the same note often enough and it begins to seem like that’s all you’ve got, that you can’t see the problems.

The Capital One Cup offered hope as Everton reached the semi-final, but then familiar failings undid them. They led Manchester City 2-1 after the first leg and scored first in the second, but ended up losing 4-3 on aggregate. How much of the defensive solidity of the first season, it seems reasonable to ask, was down to Moyes’s legacy?

And, really, that’s the issue. The problems seem systemic: what went wrong at Wigan is going wrong at Everton and there’s no evidence Martinez is able to fix it. This is a gifted squad that ripples with potential. Stones, Barkley and Lukaku are 65 between them. They could represent a spine that will sustain the club for years, but already Lukaku has begun to talk about wanting a move to play in the Champions League, while Stones, having been the subject of a bid from Chelsea last summer, is reportedly interesting Manchester City. If they don’t see the club moving forward, why would they stay?

Which is why this week is so important. The games against Liverpool and Manchester United – results and performances – will have a resonance beyond determining where in mid-table Everton finish or whether they can win the Cup. They will also help determine whether Martinez is at Everton next season.