Why Alexandre Pato is a gamble worth taking for Chelsea

Latest reports indicate Alexandre Pato is on the verge of joining Chelsea on loan with a view to a permanent deal, three years after he left AC Milan to return to Brazil amid questions about his form, fitness and commitment.

With Pato having hardly set the world alight back in his homeland (although he has scored regularly), and with Chelsea struggling in the bottom half the Premier League table, does this deal make much sense for either party?

For Chelsea the January transfer window has come at a turbulent time, when they are already trying to unravel a number of issues as they plot a way back towards the top of the Premier League table, Guus Hiddink has replaced Jose Mourinho as manager, bringing his own ideas about the makeup of the current squad, but the short-term nature of his deal means his scope for decision-making is perhaps somewhat limited. It might be that sporting director Michael Emenalo is making the big decisions right now - although that too might not fill Blues fans with confidence.

One of the issues the club's hierarchy needs to resolve involves their strikers, who have caused constant headaches all year. Diego Costa may be firmly established (for now) as the club’s first-choice No. 9, but rumours persist that he would not mind a summer departure, while his form has not matched up to last season (and he may have picked up an injury against Arsenal). Loan signing Radamel Falcao has been an expensive flop, even as a back-up selection, but his injury situation means the club do not even know whether or not they will be able to cut bait with him this month.

That leaves Loic Remy as the club’s second-choice striker, almost by default, yet he is reportedly keen to leave this month in search of the regular action that might help him cement his place in France’s European Championship squad. If the Blues let him go, however, they undoubtedly need a replacement – no-one is suggesting they should or could rely on Falcao and Patrick Bamford for the rest of the season.

Yet with the manager situation to be addressed in the summer and a league position that means the Premier League title is out of the question this term, there is little reason (or sense) in spending the £20 million or more required to buy a player of the quality to enhance the squad, when the new boss might decide six months later they are not in his plans. But equally there is little point in panic-buying from the bargain bucket (the Papy Djilobodji saga will surely have underlined that), which means the club needs to get creative if they are to firm up their attacking options for the second half of the campaign.

They need to find a player with the talent to help in the pursuit of a top-four finish that some players still insist is a possibility, but one also available for an amenable price. It is a limiting list of criteria but, if reports are to be believed, the club’s hierarchy think they might just have found that man: Alexandre Pato.

It has been an open secret for some time now that Alexandre Pato has been available for transfer. Out of contract at the end of this year, his parent club Corinthians are desperate to recoup some sort of transfer fee on a player who has made it clear that he believes now is the time to make a second assault on European football.

When Corinthians paid around £10m to end Pato’s AC Milan career in 2013, it was done as much with financial considerations as sporting ones in mind. Sure, the club’s hierarchy saw a player who had the talent to improve their squad, but equally they saw a player who could potentially be sold back to Europe for a tidy profit in a season or two, should he put an end to the fitness issues that soured his final seasons at the San Siro.

Things did not quite work out as planned, however, with Pato’s first season at the club seeing a smattering of the same injury problems that had previously affected him as he also showed a habit of missing gilt-edged chances. He subsequently fell out with the club’s new manager, Mano Menezes, forcing the club to make a decision about a player who had suddenly gone from investment opportunity to terrifying white elephant (or duck, if you prefer, with that being the literal translation of 'pato').

What they decided to do, innovatively, was essentially loan him out to rivals Sao Paulo on a semi-permanent basis – with Sao Paulo paying much of the cost of his vast (by Brazilian standards) wages but Corinthians retaining the option to sell him for a profit if he suddenly hit form. It sort of worked – Pato scored 38 goals in 95 games for Sao Paulo over two seasons, putting many of his injury issues behind him as he made contributions on a frequent basis (although missing his share of chances too) while playing all along the club’s forward line.

As last season ended and Pato entered the final year of his Corinthians deal, it was clear that all parties had decided now was the time for Pato to be sold. The problem, however, has been that the market has not been there for the 26-year-old in Europe – with the real big money offers, as the likes of Fernando Torres, Gervinho, Ramires and Cheick Tiote have also discovered, all coming from the slightly less attractive footballing backwater of China.

Seeing an unlikely answer to all their prayers, Corinthians were understandably desperate to accept when second division side Tianjin Quanjin tabled a reported £20m offer. The terms on offer to Pato were also apparently astronomical (especially compared to what Chelsea want to pay him) but the player was not for turning - outraging his club by sticking to his European dream.

“The problem is that he cannot wind down another year and leave for free,” former president Andres Sanchez bemoaned at the time. “If you have a proposal, you must accept. Our hands are tied. We want to sell. If he does not want to be sold, it won’t happen. If I want to sell him for a dollar, but he did not hit it off with the club, he cannot be sold.”

Pato had already set out his stall, however – as last year’s Brazilian season ended, he suddenly started doing interviews (in English) with British media. He was putting himself in the shop window, making it clear that he wants to revive his career in Europe, and preferably the Premier League, not fatten his wallet in the Far East.

"I want to write a new story in Europe, to make a new history,” he told the Daily Telegraph. “I want to come to win the championship and play again in the Champions League. I have dreams again. I want to create this new story, a good new story."

After that clarion call the European clubs did not exactly come flocking as Pato hoped, however – with Liverpool and Sporting Lisbon offering lukewarm interest until Chelsea started talks. Corinthians are desperate to make any sort of return on their investment, but Pato only wants to go to Europe - and specific clubs at that.

"January's market is too limited," Pato's agent agreed last week. "Chelsea, Liverpool, Sporting, Benfica - the four of them have a chance [to have Pato]."

Once tipped as a future Ballon d’Or winner, could Pato actually be that rare option – a player with the potential to be a valuable addition to the Chelsea squad, but one who won’t cost the Earth?

Rolling the dice with damaged goods? Chelsea followed a similar path just six months ago, of course, and look how that turned out. The loan signing of Radamel Falcao made sense in theory – as expensive as his weekly wages were, they were paying no up-front transfer fee for a player who scored 52 goals in 68 league games for Atletico Madrid only a few seasons prior.

If Falcao rediscovered his form and fitness, they could then sign him for a reasonable fee (a player once sold for £54m might cost them just £10-15m) and be confident of his ability to enhance the first XI. If he didn’t, they could write it off as an expensive 12-month rental of a back-up option who replaced Didier Drogba, who was more a mascot than a genuine player during last season's title run.

The reality, of course, has been even worse than the club could have possibly feared. Falcao has been injured more than half the time this season, and horribly out-of-form the rest – to the point the club would probably try to terminate his deal now if, well, if he weren’t still injured. As little footballing value as he offered in 2014/15, the Blues would doubtless have Drogba back in a heartbeat over the ex-Atletico Madrid man - but hindsight has always been a wonderful thing.

In theory the move for Falcao made a lot of sense – a certain risk, yes, but a huge potential reward – but the reality only underlined why the Colombian was available for the terms he was.

Now Chelsea, still keen to be self-sufficient in this second decade of the Abramovich era, are shopping in the same market – hoping Pato will prove a more successful gamble this time.

Pato perhaps feels it is unfair that he seems to be remembered around European clubs for the final years of his time at AC Milan, rather than the exciting early years. It is easy to forget that AC Milan had to wait to play him – signed at 17, Italian rules meant he had to wait to turn 18 before he could be registered for first-team matches – but, once in the side, he almost immediately scored goals. The buzz was huge before he arrived, and he more than lived up to it.

Pato scored nine goals in 18 matches in that 2007-08 season (having been registered in January), and then 15 in 36 in his one injury-free full campaign for the club the following term, cementing his status as perhaps the best under-21 player in the world game.

He scored a respectable 26 goals in his next two seasons with the Rossoneri but by then fans were starting to grow frustrated, both at his increasingly frequent muscular injuries and a perception that he was not kicking on and delivering on the potential he once showed (when the club won Serie A in 2011, he was very much Zlatan Ibrahimovic’s foil, not the main man himself).

The 2011-12 season saw just one Serie A strike as he managed a frustrating 11 appearances, leading to his sale at the start of the following season as Milan decided his future was not at the club and Corinthians' offer was a deal not to be passed up.

"I can come back to Europe and I think I can do better than when I was at AC Milan," he said. "I know my body now, I know the work I need to do before the game and after the game. I will be much better than in the past."

Injuries were the main contributing factor, but it is hard to shake the impression that Pato lost focus as his fame went to his head. An early marriage failed after less than a year due in part to his “excessive partying”, while he subsequently dated a former Miss Brazil for a period as he went about ticking many boxes of the stereotypical young footballer.

He then embarked on a high-profile relationship with Barbara Berlusconi, daughter of club owner Silvio Berlusconi, which reportedly caused certain frictions in the Milan dressing room regarding what secrets he may or may not have been telling her.

“Something of this nature has never been seen before,” an insider commented at the time, amid reports team-mates were worried training ground banter was no longer staying there.

On the pitch, Pato seemed reluctant to kick on – to put in the hard work that elevates someone like Cristiano Ronaldo to Ballon d’Or contention - and consequently began to stagnate, falling out with his managers (notably Max Allegri) rather than analyse his own failings.

"From the very first time I saw you I thought that a goal a game for someone like you wasn't enough," his old manager, Carlo Ancelotti, told him on television (he was working as a pundit) after a Champions League game in 2011. "Once again, you could have scored three. At times it's like you play with sufficienza [doing just enough, and nothing more]."

Pato’s response was either unfailingly polite or rather illuminating: "You're right, mister,” he said, although it did not spark a new resolve.

Returning to Brazil has seemingly allowed Pato’s physical issues to stabilise, but they might also have focused his mind – the natural maturation process allowing his muscles to finally mend and his mind to finally sort through his life experiences and realise what he really wants from his career and what he needs to do to return to that level.

“When I went back to Brazil to play, after a few months, my body was perfect,” he said. “Now, after three years playing there, my dreams have come and one day I think I will be coming back to Europe to write my new story."

In 2015, he finished with 26 goals in 59 games:

"That is the best season of my career. Now I feel that my body and my mental strength are both good. My confidence is back."

A striker during much of his time at AC Milan, since returning to Brazil Pato has predominantly played from the left of a three-pronged attack, cutting in on his preferred right foot as an inside forward with an eye for goal.

Almost as comfortable on his left foot, however, he has also played on the right – which, coupled with his long experience as a central striker, means he would undoubtedly offer a tactical flexibility if he joined Chelsea’s squad.

Speed has always been Pato’s primary asset, matched with a technical ability that makes him a direct, devastating attacking presence. He would offer something slightly different to Hazard’s drifting threat, Willian’s all-action running and Pedro’s precision movement, even if he would perhaps need to bide his time to supplant all three (and Oscar) in Hiddink's first-choice side. Initially at least, filling in for Costa as a central striker off the bench would seem to be his primary responsibility - with any further opportunities earned by his efforts in those snippets of time.

At 26, he should be approaching his prime – a tantalising prospect for a player who won the Golden Boy award for the best young player in Europe in 2009 (other winners: Lionel Messi, Sergio Aguero, Paul Pogba … and Anderson), and was tipped by both Leonardo and Carlo Ancelotti as a future Ballon d’Or winner before he even turned 20.

Such lofty heights might be beyond him now, but there is no reason to believe that a player who was a key element in a Champions League and domestic title contender as a teenager could not return to that level almost a decade later. Of course, a quick look at some of the players he beat out to win that prestigious Golden Boy prize - Stevan Jovetic, Theo Walcott, Rodrigo Possebon, Franco Di Santo - should remind us that the progression of talented youngsters is a gloriously unpredictable business.

Perhaps Pato's best years really are behind him, and Chelsea (like Corinthians before them) are simply gambling on an illusion that no longer exists?

Of course, the fact that Pato has been available since December but has still (in late January) failed to seal a deal indicates that one or more parties are quibbling over the particulars. The latest reports are that Chelsea’s proposal is a loan, with an option of a permanent transfer at the end of the campaign.

You can see why that might not appeal to Corinthians – if he struggles, that permanent clause won’t be exercised and his value will probably drop even further – but Chelsea have all the cards to drive a hard bargain. They know what Pato wants, they know few other interested parties can offer such opportunities, and they know Corinthians are desperate to make some sort of return on their investment as soon as possible… so they know they can call the shots.

If a deal is completed (the transfer fee, if activated, is reported at around £7m - which would seem about right), there will still be fears that the Premier League will be too physical for a player who has struggled with his body in the past. But it is effectively a six-month audition for a forward once tipped to be among the world’s best – one who has pretty much assuaged concerns about injury proneness and kept scoring goals at a reasonable rate.

At the modest prices being touted, Chelsea will wonder what the downside is.

"I have spoken to Willian, [Roberto] Firmino, [Philippe] Coutinho and David Luiz before. I think Brazilian players can play [in the Premier League],” Pato said. “You mix talent and intelligence and Brazilian players can play here.

"My dream is to come back to Europe. I think it has to be to a club that plays to be champions. That challenges and has ambition."

The irony is that Chelsea have few domestic ambitions left this season, and it is that situation that means they are considering Pato at all (if they were in the title mix, Mourinho would surely still be there and the club would be more inclined to make a statement purchase, perhaps even someone like £25m Alex Teixeira).

Pato will have much to do to prove the doubters wrong but, if he has moved past the problems caused by his early explosion onto the scene, it is not that hard to see why Chelsea see this is a gamble worth taking.

There are no guarantees it will pay off, but the player himself clearly has the desire to do everything he can to prove himself.