Race to the Championship: Predicting the Premier League relegation run-in…

Updated 31/03/2018 at 11:38 GMT

It’s the question on everyone’s (not strictly true) lips: who is getting relegated from the Premier League? We’ve completed an online soothsayer course to ensure we’re qualified to predict, with 100% accuracy, who is dropping into the Championship next season...

Premier League relegation battle

Image credit: Getty Images

With seven gameweeks remaining – plus a bonus midweek round for a few clubs – it is already shaping into one of the closest relegation scraps in top-flight history. A whopping 11 teams are yet to reach the fabled 40-point barrier and just five points separate 13th from 19th.

Since the turn of the millennium, teams have stayed up with 39 or more points on all but two occasions – and given there are so many teams involved in this scrap, it is practically inevitable that three will fall below this mark. So the Eurosport survival quota is 39 points.

Firstly, both Bournemouth and Watford (on 36 points) have enough kind fixtures to survive comfortably, so there’s no need to suck them unnecessarily into our article. Brighton (34 points) aren’t quite as deserving of our kindness and are included. Oh, and to save us having to predict exact scores, teams level on points will be listed in joint positions – fortunately goal difference doesn’t affect our final standings.

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Anyway, let’s get cracking. Best of luck to Brighton, Newcastle, Swansea, Huddersfield, Crystal Palace, West Ham and Stoke. Commiserations in advance to West Brom.

CURRENT STATE OF PLAY

Gameweek 32: March 31 & April 1

Crystal Palace v Liverpool: Liverpool win
Brighton v Leicester: Brighton win
Manchester United v Swansea: United win
Newcastle v Huddersfield: Newcastle win
West Brom v Burnley: Burnley win
West Ham v Southampton: Southampton win
Arsenal v Stoke: Arsenal win

Position	Club	Played	Points
12th	Brighton	31	37
13th	Newcastle	31	35
14th=	Swansea	31	31
14th=	Huddersfield	32	31
14th=	Southampton	31	31
17th=	Crystal Palace	32	30
17th=	West Ham	31	30
19th	Stoke City	32	27
20th	West Brom	32	20

Brighton close on the magical 39-point barrier, Mark Hughes marks his Southampton arrival with victory at a fuming London Stadium and West Brom… well... actually, let’s just relegate them right now. They don’t have a prayer. Happy for us to issue them 20th place? Good. West Brom are relegated.

Gameweek 33: April 7 & 8

Bournemouth v Crystal Palace: Draw
Brighton v Huddersfield: Brighton win
Leicester v Newcastle: Leicester win
Stoke v Tottenham: Spurs win
West Brom v Swansea: Draw
Arsenal v Southampton: Arsenal win
Chelsea v West Ham: Chelsea win

Position	Club	Played	Points
12th	Brighton	32	40
13th	Newcastle	32	35
14th	Swansea	32	32
15th=	Huddersfield	33	31
15th=	Southampton	32	31
15th=	Crystal Palace	33	31
18th	West Ham	32	30
19th	Stoke City	33	27

Roll out the confetti (almost certainly not an actual phrase)… Brighton are staying in the Premier League! Their second straight victory – a winning run absolutely not fixed to reduce the amount of predictions needed – sees them hit 40 points.

Brighton's English defender Lewis Dunk (C) celebrates after scoring the opening goal of the English Premier League football match between Brighton and Hove Albion and Arsenal at the American Express Community Stadium in Brighton, southern England on March

Image credit: Getty Images

Gameweek 34: April 14-16

Southampton v Chelsea: Draw
Crystal Palace v Brighton: Palace win
Huddersfield v Watford: Huddersfield win
Swansea v Everton: Draw
Newcastle v Arsenal: Arsenal win
West Ham v Stoke: West Ham win

Position	Club	Played	Points
13th	Newcastle	33	35
14th=	Huddersfield	34	34
14th=	Crystal Palace	34	34
16th=	Swansea	33	33
16th=	West Ham	33	33
18th	Southampton	33	32
19th	Stoke City	34	27

Crazy scenes! The gap between 13th and 18th is sliced to just three points, with Southampton dropping into the relegation zone. Stoke’s situation is properly desperate – they need to win all their remaining games just to hit the industry-recognised Eurosport survival quota of 39 points.

Gameweek 35: April 19-23

Leicester v Southampton: Southampton win
Watford v Crystal Palace: Draw
Arsenal v West Ham: Arsenal win
Stoke v Burnley: Stoke win
Manchester City v Swansea: Man City win
Everton v Newcastle: Draw

N.B. Huddersfield don't have a game

Position	Club	Played	Points
13th	Newcastle	34	36
14th=	Crystal Palace	35	35
14th=	Southampton	34	35
16th	Huddersfield	34	34
17th=	Swansea	34	33
17th=	West Ham	34	33
19th	Stoke City	35	30

Stop it, Stoke! Paul Lambert's men (unbelievably, he's still in a job) tick off the first of four required victories, downing Burnley at the atrociously-named bet365 Stadium. Southampton climb into a share of 14th, meaning it's West Ham who finish a bumper weekend in the most turmoil after a pasting at Arsenal.

Bonus catch-up week: April 24 & 25

Chelsea v Huddersfield: Chelsea win
Swansea v Southampton: Draw
Tottenham v Newcastle: Spurs win
West Ham v Manchester United: West Ham win

N.B. Fixtures are not yet confirmed - but this is one available slot. Crystal Palace and Stoke City don't have games

Position	Club	Played	Points
13th=	Newcastle	35	36
13th=	Southampton	35	36
13th=	West Ham	35	36
16th	Crystal Palace	35	35
17th=	Huddersfield	35	34
17th=	Swansea	35	34
19th	Stoke City	35	30

No good predictions article is complete without a shock Manchester United defeat – rage incoming in the comments section in 3, 2, 1... – with West Ham proving the not-quite-giant-slayers on this occasion. The 18th position merry-go-round sees Huddersfield and Swansea claim joint honours. Only two points split 13th and 18th. What. A. Finish.

Gameweek 36: April 28 & 29

Liverpool v Stoke: Draw
Crystal Palace v Leicester: Draw
Huddersfield v Everton: Draw
Newcastle v West Brom: Newcastle win
Southampton v Bournemouth: Southampton win
Swansea v Chelsea: Chelsea win
West Ham v Manchester City: Man City win

Position	Club	Played	Points
13th=	Newcastle	36	39
13th=	Southampton	36	39
15th=	West Ham	36	36
15th=	Crystal Palace	36	36
17th	Huddersfield	36	35
18th	Swansea	36	34
19th	Stoke City	36	31

Stoke's quest for survival sees them earn a valiant point at Liverpool, but their top-flight dream is almost over as fans long for the glory days of Pulis and Delap. A wave of euphoria spreads acrossNewcastle and Southampton as they hear news that 39 is the new 40 and, according to us (and not pure mathematics), their Premier League status is confirmed for another year.

Newcastle United supporters celebrate

Image credit: Getty Images

Gameweek 37: May 5

Bournemouth v Swansea: Bournemouth win
Leicester v West Ham: West Ham win
Manchester City v Huddersfield: Man City win
Stoke v Crystal Palace: Palace win

Position	Club	Played	Points
15th=	West Ham	37	39
15th=	Crystal Palace	37	39
17th	Huddersfield	37	35
18th	Swansea	37	34
19th	Stoke City	37	31

DRAMA! West Ham and Crystal Palace retain their Premier League status as Huddersfield and Swansea both lose. The latter duo are left in a final day shootout as Stoke’s sorry season is finally signed off with a big ‘R’ for relegation.

Gameweek 38: May 13

Huddersfield v Arsenal: Arsenal win
Swansea v Stoke: Swansea win

17th	Swansea	38	37
18th - RELEGATED	Huddersfield	38	35
19th - RELEGATED	Stoke City	38	31
20th - RELEGATED	West Brom	38	20 (...probably)

It’s official: Huddersfield, Stoke and West Brom will be playing Championship football next season. It's heartbreak for the Terriers, who succumb to the bottom three at the final hurdle, as Swansea leapfrog them with victory over already-relegated Stoke. West Brom carry their consistency through to the end of the season, with their perfectly choreographed form reading: LLLLLLLLLLLLLL.

TL;DR

Dip your grubby hand into your pocket, take out your loose change and stick it on Huddersfield, Stoke and West Brom to get relegated from the Premier League. It's free money.

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