Premier League permutations: What do Manchester City, Arsenal need to win title? Who qualifies for Europe?
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ByOli Gent
Published 16/05/2024 at 10:49 GMT
The Premier League has reached its final day and there are still some things that need to be sorted out. The destination of the title is perhaps the most intriguing, although the race to qualify for Europe includes four sides amid uncertainty caused by the FA Cup. There could also be goals galore and late drama at the bottom if Luton are to stay up against the odds and leapfrog Nottingham Forest.
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Another Premier League season draws to a close this weekend, but there are still things that still need to be decided.
The most important of those is the destination of this term's title, which will either be heading back to the Etihad Stadium for Manchester City's fourth in a row, or be making a maiden appearance at the Emirates Stadium should Arsenal win it for the first time since 2004.
The race for UEFA Champions League qualification was decided in midweek thanks to Tottenham Hotspur's inability to beat Man City at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, succumbing 2-0 to a brace from Erling Haaland in north London.
That result meant that Aston Villa's place at Europe's top table was confirmed, with the Villans now an unassailable five points clear of Spurs with one game left to play.
Unai Emery has led Villa into the Champions League for the first time, with the Birmingham outfit having not featured in the top European competition since 1982-83, when it was still known as the European Cup.
Liverpool's place in the top four was confirmed weeks ago as they are sat safely in third as Jurgen Klopp waves goodbye to Anfield when they face Wolves on Sunday.
All games on the final day will be played on Sunday May 19, kicking off at 16:00 BST.
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Title race - What do Man City and Arsenal need to win Premier League?
Man City, two points clear at the top, go into the last game simply needing to better Arsenal's result.
Pep Guardiola's side host West Ham United at the Etihad, and a win would guarantee a fourth consecutive title for The Citizens, which would be a new record in English football.
A draw could also win City the title should Arsenal be held by Everton at the Emirates - a game that will be live on TNT Sports and discovery+.
Mikel Arteta's Gunners need a win and City to drop points against West Ham to have any chance of winning a first title in 21 years.
The north London club have a better goal difference by one than City, so a draw for the Manchester outfit and a win for Arsenal would see the Gunners lift the trophy on goal difference.
The race for Europe - Who is still in contention? What do they need?
The top four has been decided after Spurs' defeat to Man City confirmed Aston Villa's qualification for the Champions League.
However, the race for UEFA Europa League and UEFA Europa Conference League football will go down to the wire.
Tottenham's stuttering end to the season could mean that they are not even guaranteed fifth place, with Chelsea hitting form at the right time with four straight wins.
Manchester United's success will be measured on whether they can claim an unlikely European place either through the league or by beating fierce rivals City in the FA Cup final next week.
Erik ten Hag's side at least took a huge three points against rivals Newcastle United on Wednesday night to move level on points with Eddie Howe's seventh-placed Magpies, although the north east outfit have a significant goal difference advantage.
As such, Tottenham need just a point to seal fifth place and their automatic qualification into the Europa League.
Chelsea, sat sixth, could leapfrog their London rivals into fifth if they win against Bournemouth and Ange Postecoglou's side lose to Sheffield United thanks to Mauricio Pochettino's Blues having a superior goal difference.
Newcastle and Man United can only finish as high as sixth, and both sides would need Chelsea to lose to Bournemouth and the other to fall to a defeat to crash the top six.
There will be uncertainty for whoever finishes sixth, however, and that stems from United's participation in the FA Cup final.
Should Ten Hag's side finish outside the top six but win the cup, they will qualify for the Europa League, with the sixth-placed side qualifying for the Europa Conference League.
That would then mean that whoever finished seventh, Newcastle as it stands, would not qualify for any European tournament.
However, if United lose the FA Cup final and finish outside the top six, then sixth place will qualify for the Europa League and seventh place will take a spot in the Conference League next season.
The battle to beat the drop
Burnley and Sheffield United had their swift returns to the Championship confirmed in previous weeks, and it seems that Luton Town will be joining them in their relegation.
Rob Edwards' side are almost guaranteed to go down thanks to their vastly inferior goal difference with Nottingam Forest, who sit 17th, outside the drop zone.
The Hatters are three points off Nuno Espirito Santo's side, and would need them to lose heavily at Burnley while winning big themselves at home to Fulham to have any chance of staying up.
Luton's goal difference is -31, while Forest's is -19.
Even a draw for Forest at Turf Moor would be enough to keep them afloat for another season.
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