An escape artist at work, a six-pointer and play-off pitfalls: Serie A relegation battle set for epic final-day climax
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Published 23/05/2024 at 16:02 GMT
Empoli, Udinese and Frosinone have a date with destiny on Sunday when they battle to avoid ending up in the third and final Serie A relegation spot. After a thrilling tussle to avoid the drop that has seen three clubs pull clear and two clubs sunk in recent weeks, a trio of sides remain in danger going into the final round of the season, while a nerve-shredding play-off could yet be required.
Empoli Udinese
Image credit: Getty Images
All is calm at the top of Serie A. As the end of a wild season rises on the horizon, you could be mistaken for thinking that the final round of fixtures will be a procession.
Wrong. While Inter Milan’s 20th Scudetto was comfortably wrapped up weeks ago and the UEFA Champions League spots have all been decided (although Atalanta's Europa League win opens the door for a possible sixth spot), a desperate dogfight is waiting to unfold at the other end of the table.
The penultimate round of the season saw Sassuolo join Salernitana in being sent down to Serie B, but three teams are still at risk of joining them going into the final day.
Two points split Frosinone (35), Udinese (34) and Empoli (33) after 37 rounds, with the first two set for a nerve-shredding showdown on the final day.
It has been a relegation battle for the ages, with 14th-place Lecce only securing survival a fortnight ago before two former Italian champions, Hellas Verona and Cagliari, followed suit only in the penultimate round as the latter sank Sassuolo.
With a trio of clubs waiting to learn their fate and the hair-raising prospect of a second successive relegation play-off still alive, we explain the lie of the land in Italy’s basement battle.
The escape artist, the underachievers and the yo-yo battlers
Let us start with Empoli. The onus is on the Tuscan team to come up big in a tough final fixture at home to Roma at the Stadio Carlo Castellani, as they need at least a draw to stand any chance of staying up. Even then, they would need Udinese to lose in order to force a play-off.
The only way Empoli can be assured of survival on the final day is by beating the Giallorossi, who are guaranteed sixth place and have little to play for but smashed the Tuscans 7-0 back in September.
The head-to-head battle between Frosinone and Udinese further south at the Stadio Benito Stirpe means that an Empoli victory would guarantee their safety.
The Azzurri will be hoping that coach Davide Nicola can pull off another miraculous escape act, something he has an unrivalled reputation for having previously achieved against-the-odds final-day survivals with Crotone, Genoa and Salernitana.
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Davide Nicola head coach of Empoli FC greets the fans after during the Serie A TIM match between Udinese Calcio and Empoli FC at Dacia Arena on May 19, 2024 in Udine, Italy
Image credit: Getty Images
Udinese are the biggest name in the mix for relegation as they risk tumbling out of the top flight for the first time in 29 years despite boasting a talented squad that was not preparing for a survival scrape after seven years of mid-table finishes - at least according to club legend Antonio Di Natale.
"I wasn't expecting to see Udinese down there," said the former striker. "It's a club I was at for 12 years, when it was a bad season if we got 48-50 points. Sunday will be a final."
The aura of Fabio Cannavaro was called upon when the former World Cup and Ballon d’Or winner was drafted in as Udinese’s third coach of the season last month, and he has his side on a four-game unbeaten run ahead of their trip south.
However, three of those were draws, continuing a season-long theme of stalemates that have stopped the Zebrette from climbing the table; an incredible 19 of their games have finished level in 2023/24.
As for Frosinone, the more optimistic among their fanbase had good reason to think they would not be in this position six months ago after making a flying start to the season on their return to the top flight under Eusebio Di Francesco.
Fired by the goals of Juventus loanee Matias Soule, Frosinone started brightly but ran out of steam in December as they embarked on a run of one win in 20 games and Soule’s goals dried up.
They have climbed out of their rut just in time, with two victories in their last four games and just one defeat in the last eight, but one final push is required for them to avoid yo-yoing straight back into Serie B for the first time in three attempts following their immediate demotions in 2016 and 2019.
Could there be a relegation play-off?
The Serie A format makes things even tastier when it comes to the relegation battle, as a play-off is used as a tie-breaker for the final demotion spot.
It immediately came into use when reintroduced last season, with Hellas Verona defeating Spezia in a single-legged play-off at the neutral venue of Reggio Emilia after they finished level on points.
There is still a chance that history could repeat itself this year, as it is possible for Udinese and Empoli to finish level on 34 points, should the former lose and the latter draw.
However, should that happen this year, the play-off would be played over two legs, home and away, after a tweak to the format since last term.
Another quirk of the Serie A format allows for a mini-table to be drawn up should three teams finish level on points for a relegation spot, with the team that finishes on top based on head-to-head avoiding the play-off.
But in this case, with Frosinone and Udinese facing one another, it is impossible for all three teams to finish level, so the final spot will be decided the traditional way, or via a Udinese v Empoli play-off.
How to watch Serie A on TNT Sports and discovery+
Thursday, May 23
19:45: Cagliari v Fiorentina
Friday, May 24
19:45: Genoa v Bologna
Saturday, May 25
17:00: Juventus v Monza
19:45: Milan v Salernitana
Sunday, May 26
18:00: Atalanta v Torino
18:00: Napoli v Lecce
20:45: Empoli v Roma
20:45: Frosinone v Udinese
20:45: Hellas Verona v Inter
20:45: Lazio v Sassuolo
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