Lewis Hamilton v Nico Rosberg: How the F1 title can be settled in Brazil
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Updated 13/11/2016 at 11:01 GMT
The Formula 1 season is coming down to a nailbiting conclusion with Mercedes team-mates Lewis Hamilton and Nico Rosberg both in contention with just two races remaining.
Mercedes AMG Petronas F1 Team's British driver Lewis Hamilton (R) walks in front of his teammate Mercedes AMG Petronas F1 Team's German driver Nico Rosberg
Image credit: AFP
Despite winning the past two races in the United States and Mexico, Hamilton is firmly the underdog and a fourth F1 drivers’ crown can be wrenched away from him in Brazil on Sunday.
Rosberg can be crowned champion for the very first time, but it could be far from straightforward.
At least Hamilton has been boosted with the news that he secured pole position ahead of his big rival.
How things stand with two races remaining
- Rosberg: 349 points
- Hamilton: 330 points
What Rosberg needs to do to win the title on Sunday
If Rosberg can outscore Hamilton by at least seven points then he will have an unassailable lead going into the final race of the season in Abu Dhabi on November 27. Here's how that could pan out:
- With 25 points for a win and 18 points for coming second, Rosberg’s fate is now entirely in his own hands: if he wins in Brazil then he will be confirmed as F1 champion for the first time.
- If Rosberg finishes second in his Mercedes, then he will win the title if Hamilton finishes fourth or lower.
- If Rosberg is third, he needs Hamilton to finish sixth or lower.
- If Rosberg is fourth, he needs Hamilton to finish eighth or lower.
- If Rosberg is fifth, he needs Hamilton to finish ninth or lower.
- If Rosberg is sixth, he needs Hamilton to finish 10th or lower.
- If Rosberg is seventh, then he cannot win the title in Brazil.
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Mercedes drivers Nico Rosberg and Lewis Hamilton shake hands in Mexico
Image credit: AFP
What Hamilton needs to do
As outlined above, Hamilton needs to finish no more than six points behind Rosberg to keep his title challenge alive and set up a thrilling conclusion to the season in Abu Dhabi – the second time in three years the team-mates and rivals will have gone head-to-head in the final race.
Hamilton always has his eyes on first place, though, and securing a ninth race win of the season, to draw level with Rosberg, will of course ensure the gap to the German is closed.
If Rosberg does not finish the race and Hamilton passes the chequered flag first, Hamilton will go into the final race of the season with a six-point advantage.
How Free Practice went
Hamilton topped the timesheets in FP1 with Red Bull driver Max Verstappen in second place. Rosberg only recorded the third fastest time.
Hamilton had 0.230 seconds on Rosberg at Interlagos.
In the afternoon, Hamilton still led the way - but Rosberg closed the gap, ending the day second and just 0.030 slower.
And in FP3 on Saturday, it was Rosberg who laid down the fastest time.
Who has the form in Brazil?
Incredibly, despite winning three F1 titles Hamilton is yet to win a race in Brazil - in nine attempts. Rosberg has won in both of the past two years.
Hamilton has real history with this race, though. In his debut season in F1, 2007, it was the season-clincher and he only needed to finish in fifth to guarantee the title. But a mistake on the first lap punished the rookie and he could only come in seventh as Kimi Raikkonen took the title.
Twelve months later, Hamilton did come in fifth and it was just enough to make him F1 champion for the first time as he overtook Timo Glock on the final lap to take the title away from Felipe Massa.
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Lewis Hamilton won the title in Brazil in 2008
Image credit: Reuters
How are the conditions shaping up?
Free Practice 1 was hot and sunny but there is rain forecast and the conditions are very unpredictable.
The Channel 4 team ran into a flood earlier this week and there is a good chance that rain will affect the race on Sunday with showers expected.
If so, this will play into Hamilton’s hands for two reasons: (a) Hamilton is a superior driver to Rosberg in the more hazardous conditions that wet weather brings, and (b) the Red Bulls perform well in the wet and if they get in amongst the two Mercedes at the top of the grid it will add an extra layer of complication for Rosberg, who wants as smooth a drive as possible.
Who do the bookies fancy?
Rosberg is an odds-on 1/4 favourite to win the title, with Hamilton at 7/2. But the Brit is favourite to win in Brazil, with odds of 5/6 to Rosberg’s 15/8.
It looks set to be a dramatic finale for Formula 1.
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