ATP Finals state of play: Who's qualified? Who's close? Will Novak Djokovic or Carlos Alcaraz be year-end No. 1?

Published 12/10/2023 at 10:35 GMT

The Nitto ATP Finals start in Turin on November 12. With one month to go we look at who has qualified, who is pushing, and the scenarios for year-end No. 1. Four players have currently booked their spots at the finals but with a month to go there is time for change in the last four places. Novak Djokovic is set to enter the finals as world No. 1, but will he finish the year on top of the rankings?

Highlights: Dimitrov beats Alcaraz to reach quarter-finals in Shanghai

There is only one month to go until the season-ending Nitto ATP Finals take place in Turin, Italy.

The tournament sees the top eight singles players and doubles teams from across the season compete for the last trophy of the campaign.

Half the singles spots at the finals are currently confirmed, with the other four still up for grabs.

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We run through who’s booked their ticket already and who else is in contention.

Who has qualified for the Nitto ATP Finals?

The four players to have already secured their spots at the ATP Finals, which start on November 12, are:

Novak Djokovic
Carlos Alcaraz
Daniil Medvedev
Jannik Sinner

For Italy's Sinner, it is the first time he has qualified for the finals.

In 2021, he played at the tournament after replacing Matteo Berrettini as an alternate, but this year he secured a spot after winning titles in Toronto, Beijing and Montpellier, and making the Wimbledon semi-finals.

“Two years ago I had a chance to play there, a couple of matches, because of Matteo hurting himself, and it was a tough moment for him,” he told ATP Media.

“I just tried to play somehow the best tennis I had in that moment, but it is a little bit of a different feeling when you make it in the official eight. I’m very happy about this achievement and really looking forward to it."

Alcaraz will be making his debut at the finals, having qualified last season but missed out due to injury.

Who else can qualify for the ATP Finals?

As it stands, the last four qualifying spots are occupied by Andrey Rublev, Stefanos Tsitsipas, Alexander Zverev and Holger Rune.

However, with just 1,340 points separating fifth-placed Rublev to 12th-placed Alex de Minaur, there is a chance for late movement.

Rublev has given his chances of qualifying a boost, as he is the only one of the top 14 in the race standings to have made the quarter-finals of the Shanghai Masters.

Zverev, Rune and ninth-placed Taylor Fritz all lost early, while Casper Ruud in 10th and Tommy Paul in 11th both reached the last 16 to improve their points tallies slightly.

There are still plenty of opportunities for those looking to make a run at qualifying for the ATP Finals.

After this week’s Shanghai Masters there are three ATP 500 events (Tokyo, Vienna and Basel), which all offer 500 points to the winner.

There is also the last Masters event of the season in Paris, where there will be 1,000 points available for the winner, and 600 for the runner-up.

Djokovic is set to return in Paris as he prepares for the ATP Finals.

ATP Race to Turin standings

1. Novak Djokovic - 8,945 points
2. Carlos Alcaraz - 8,445 points
3. Daniil Medvedev - 6,935 points
4. Jannik Sinner - 4,945 points
5. Andrey Rublev - 3,855 points
6. Stefanos Tsitsipas - 3,615 points
7. Alexander Zverev - 3,415 points
8. Holger Rune - 3,110 points
9. Taylor Fritz - 2,875 points
10. Casper Ruud - 2,795 points
11. Tommy Paul - 2,525 points
12. Alex de Minaur - 2,515 points
13. Karen Khachanov - 2,205 points
14. Frances Tiafoe - 2,175 points

* Correct on October 12

Check out the full list here.

Djokovic v Alcaraz for world No. 1?

With Djokovic opting not to play in China following his US Open win, Alcaraz had the chance to gain ground in his bid to reclaim the world No. 1 spot.

However, he has not gained as much as might have been expected.

At the China Open, Alcaraz lost in the semi-finals to Sinner, and at the Shanghai Masters he was beaten in the last 16. He is set to be 2,240 points behind Djokovic when the rankings are updated next Monday.

Alcaraz says he has 'lost a lot of opportunities' to return to No. 1 after Dimitrov loss

That is not an impossible ask as Djokovic has 2,100 points to defend across the last two events of the season, having made the Paris Masters final in 2022 and won the Nitto ATP Finals. Alcaraz lost in the quarters of the Paris Masters last year and didn’t play the ATP Finals due to injury.

However, Alcaraz admitted after his loss to Dimitrov that he has missed “opportunities” to improve his chance of being year-end No. 1 for the second year in a row.

“After this loss, it's going to be tougher.

"If I want to be No. 1, I have a few tournaments ahead so I will try to do my best. I will try to win them if I want to have a chance to end the year as No. 1.

"I don't know, but right now I have a lost a lot of opportunities to make it."

Alcaraz is set to play the Swiss Indoors in Basel before the Paris Masters.

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