Iga Swiatek or Carlos Alcaraz? Who is more likely to achieve Sunshine Double by winning Miami Open after Indian Wells?
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Published 21/03/2024 at 12:05 GMT
Iga Swiatek and Carlos Alcaraz will both be looking to complete the Sunshine Double by winning the Miami Open. Which of them is more likely to pull it off? World No. 1 Swiatek won Indian Wells in impressive style as she didn't drop a set all tournament. She has won the Sunshine Double before, while Alcaraz will be aiming to follow up his Indian Wells success with a first Miami title.
'A test of my mental training' - Swiatek 'super proud' with Indian Wells win
Part one of the Sunshine Double is completed and part two is under way with this week’s Miami Open.
Carlos Alcaraz and Iga Swiatek were victorious in Indian Wells as they both won the tournament for the second time in their careers.
They will now look to go back-to-back by winning in Miami, a double-up which has been achieved by just 11 players (seven men and four women), including Swiatek in 2022.
Who, though, is the most likely out of Alcaraz and Swiatek to win the Sunshine Double this season?
The case for Swiatek
The obvious starting point for Swiatek is that she has done it before.
In 2022 she launched her 37-match winning streak by triumphing at Indian Wells, where she came through three successive three-set matches in the first week, and Miami, where she tore through the draw without dropping a set.
Excluding her shock Australian Open exit, Swiatek looks close to her 2022 level again this year.
At Indian Wells she was dominant throughout, not dropping more than four games in a match and dishing out four bagel sets.
Her draw in Miami could see her face Linda Noskova in the third round again, with the pair having already met at the same stage in Indian Wells and the Australian Open, and won one match each.
Coco Gauff could await in the semis and then potentially a first meeting of the year with world No. 2 Aryna Sabalenka in the final. There’s also the intriguing prospect of Swiatek’s final obstacle to completing the Sunshine Double being world No. 4 Elena Rybakina, who has won three of her last four meetings with Swiatek.
Although the conditions in Miami might not suit Swiatek’s game quite as well as Indian Wells, where the courts are a bit slower but the ball moves quicker through the air, she still looks a big favourite given her strikingly-good form and ability to make the world's best players look quite ordinary.
If she does win in Miami it will be her ninth WTA 1000 title, moving her level with Monica Seles, Venus Williams, Simona Halep, Petra Kvitova and Conchita Martinez. It will also be the 20th title of career and she would be only the second woman after Steffi Graf to do the Sunshine Double twice.
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“As good as we all know Iga is, her career at this point is almost undersold,” said former world No. 1 Andy Roddick recently.
“Four Slams, eight Masters 1000s, 19 [title] wins. She is approaching the rare era of like [Justine] Henin, [Maria] Sharapova or Lindsay Davenport, and Kim Clijsters, she’s right there and she is also 22 years old."
The case for Alcaraz
The Sunshine Swing seems to bring out the best in Alcaraz.
In his last five combined appearances across Indian Wells and the Miami Open he has won three titles and made two semi-finals.
He went up through the gears impressively at Indian Wells as he beat Alexander Zverev in a rematch of their Australian Open quarter-final, then ended Jannik Sinner’s 16-match winning streak, before producing several highlight-reel shots in victory over Daniil Medvedev in the final.
After a below-par start to the season and with a few questions starting about his form, it was exactly what Alcaraz needed.
“I had really difficult months,” he admitted after beating Medvedev in the final.
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'To claim Sunshine Double would be incredible' - Alcaraz up for Miami challenge
“The last two months it was difficult for me to find myself. I didn't enjoy stepping on the court. I wasn't myself on the court the last two to three months…so it was difficult for me.”
Alcaraz now heads to Miami with renewed confidence and seemingly with his mojo back. That can only be bad news for the rest of the field.
“I’m feeling great, with a lot of confidence right now,” he added.
“I think I’m playing great tennis. I’m really happy to be here in Miami again, a really special place for me, where I’ve shown great tennis the past years. I’m feeling great physically and mentally and I’m ready for this tournament.”
The last man to win the Sunshine Double was Novak Djokovic in 2016. The only other men to achieve it this century are Roger Federer and Andre Agassi.
Alcaraz would be joining a list of greats if he can pull it off.
Verdict – Swiatek the favourite
Unless Swiatek has an off day or an opponent has one of the best days of their careers, it’s hard to see the world No. 1 losing at least before the semis in Miami.
Sabalenka and Rybakina could be tricky in the final, but Swiatek is the in-form player on the WTA Tour right now and looked unstoppable at Indian Wells.
Alcaraz is perhaps building up to level that but might face more challenges in the draw in Miami even though he is not on the same half as Medvedev or Sinner.
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